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FINAL+1KC
TEX

TEX

62-64

3
4
KC

KC

64-61

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
12,747 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

TEX 3 · KC 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0100010103
KC102010004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Aug 18·Final/SeriesKC wins series 3-1

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Texas Rangers, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Corey Seager

Corey Seager

SS

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Mike Yastrzemski

Mike Yastrzemski

LF

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX62-64
3
4
KC64-61
TEX62-64·KC64-61
TEX

TEX

62-64

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-44000001
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
2-44220002
SPRINT2872
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
3-44030000
SPRINT24.96
R. TellezR. Tellez★1B
1-44011001
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
2-44021000
SPRINT28.175
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT28.175
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
1-44010000
C. FreemanC. Freeman★3B
0-44000000
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
1-33011000
Team11-35353113005
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LeiterJ. Leiter★SP
3.2633352
L. CurveloL. CurveloRP
1.1111111
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0100110
P. MatonP. MatonRP
1.0000010
C. BoushleyC. BoushleyRP
1.0000020
Team8.08445103
KC

KC

64-61

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
2-33121100
SPRINT2744
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-22110021
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-44112101
SPRINT25.411
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
2-44121101
SPRINT27.765
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
0-33000011
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
1-44010002
SPRINT27.765
JJ. Rave★RF
0-44000001
L. MaileL. Maile★C
0-44000001
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-33010012
Team8-31314843510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. WachaM. Wacha★SP
5.2922030
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
1.1000010
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0211010
C. EstevezC. EstevezRP
1.0000000
Team9.01133050

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • J. Leiter
    81 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      46%·96.8 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      37%·86.8 mph·47% whiff
    • CH
      7%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·79.1 mph·— whiff
  • L. Curvelo
    25 pitches·16% CSW
    • SI
      44%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      32%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      4%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      56%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.2 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      11%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Maton
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FC
      50%·89.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      17%·77.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      17%·88.9 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      17%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Boushley
    11 pitches·55% CSW
    • CU
      27%·75.9 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      18%·84.8 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      18%·90.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      18%·92.9 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      9%·90.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      9%·82.3 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • M. Wacha
    93 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      34%·92.5 mph·6% whiff
    • CH
      24%·78.7 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      15%·87.2 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      11%·84.3 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      10%·75.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      6%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Erceg
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      48%·97.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      24%·84.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      14%·90.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      14%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      38%·93.7 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      31%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Estevez
    12 pitches·8% CSW
    • FF
      67%·96.9 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      25%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

8

3

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

KC wins series 3-1

Aug 18TEXTEX3@KCKC4today
Aug 19TEXTEX2@KCKC5
Aug 20TEXTEX6@KCKC3
Aug 21TEXTEX4@KCKC6

Season series

KC leads series 4-0

Jun 18KCKC6@TEXTEX1
Jun 19KCKC6@TEXTEX3
Jun 19KCKC4@TEXTEX1
Aug 18TEXTEX3@KCKC4today
Aug 19TEXTEX2@KCKC5
Aug 20TEXTEX6@KCKC3
Aug 21TEXTEX4@KCKC6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

TEXTEX
C. Seager

C. Seager

SS

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

J. Leiter

J. Leiter

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

KCKC
M. Yastrzemski

M. Yastrzemski

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

M. Wacha

M. Wacha

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 9 H

How it ended

KC beat TEX 4-3.

Win probability

KC vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 72% WP

Yastrzemski · homered to right center (412 feet).

KCBottom 2nd Inning · 1-1
+15pp→ 64% WP

India · singled to left.

KCBottom 3rd Inning · 1-3
+16pp→ 81% WP

Pasquantino · homered to right (374 feet), Witt Jr. scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0100010103
KC10201000—4

Period scoring

TEX won 3 · KC won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Yastrzemski 1

1
0

Inn 2

Heim 1

0
2

Inn 3

Pasquantino 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Garcia 1

1
0

Inn 6

Carter 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Tellez 1

0

Inn 9

TEX
KC

Play-by-play · 550 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  2. T9

    Freeman lined out to shortstop.

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

    +2pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  9. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Cody Freeman

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  10. T9

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  11. T9

    Pederson fouled out to third.

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

    +5pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  15. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Joc Pederson

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  16. T9

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  17. T9

    Semien flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

    +7pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  21. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Marcus Semien

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  22. T9

    Estévez relieved Erceg

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TEX 3·KC 4

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TEX 3·KC 4

  25. B8

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  26. B8

    Isbel struck out looking.

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  27. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 3·KC 4

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

KC

Home

3

Runs

4

11

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

12

TB

17

0

HR

3

0

BB

5

5

K

10

12

LOB

19

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

KC vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.7± 3.1low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Jake BurgerTEX
    0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.7%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    54.9%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.9%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.2%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 12, 25sim 98
    283
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 98
    132
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 97
    302
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 95
    134
    7(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 95
    173
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 95
    74
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs