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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2KC
KC

KC

81-80

4
2
ATH

ATH

76-85

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
10,047 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 4 · ATH 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC1000200014
ATH0000001102

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Sep 27·Final/SeriesKC wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals went into Athletics and beat them, 4–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Randal Grichuk

Randal Grichuk

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Shea Langeliers

Shea Langeliers

C

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC81-80
4
2
ATH76-85
KC81-80·ATH76-85
KC

KC

81-80

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
2-44220010
SPRINT2744
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
2-55021000
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-55012000
SPRINT25.411
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
0-44000002
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-33000012
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
0-22000021
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
1-33010010
SPRINT26.225
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT26.838
JJ. Rave★RF
0-33000001
R. GrichukR. GrichukRF
1-11010000
Team8-3434483057
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. WachaM. Wacha★SP
6.0200350
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
0.2211000
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
0.2211000
J. BowlanJ. BowlanRP
0.2000000
C. EstevezC. EstevezRP
1.0000020
Team9.0622370
ATH

ATH

76-85

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-33110010
SPRINT26.632
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
3-44031000
SPRINT28.586
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
0-44000001
SPRINT26.735
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-33000012
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
0-33000001
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
0-33000011
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
1-44110001
SPRINT27.969
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
1-44011000
SPRINT25.716
M. SchuemannM. Schuemann★SS
0-22000001
J. BledayJ. BledayLF
0-11000000
Team6-3131262037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. MoralesL. Morales★SP
4.2532250
E. AlvaradoE. AlvaradoRP
1.1000100
M. KellyM. KellyRP
1.0000100
T. FergusonT. FergusonRP
1.0100120
H. HarrisH. HarrisRP
1.0211000
Team9.0843570

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

ATH

  • E. Alvarado
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      72%·97.7 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      17%·87.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      11%·98.7 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Kelly
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      35%·82.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      24%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·89.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      18%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.2 mph·— whiff
  • T. Ferguson
    4 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      75%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·82.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

6

4

Runs

2

0

Errors

2

Current series

KC wins series 2-1

Sep 27KCKC3@ATHATH4
Sep 28KCKC4@ATHATH2today
Sep 28KCKC9@ATHATH2

Season series

ATH leads series 4-1

Jun 14ATHATH6@KCKC4
Jun 14ATHATH4@KCKC0
Jun 15ATHATH3@KCKC2
Sep 27KCKC3@ATHATH4
Sep 28KCKC4@ATHATH2today
Sep 28KCKC9@ATHATH2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 24pp · Bottom 8th Inning

KCKC
R. Grichuk

R. Grichuk

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

M. Wacha

M. Wacha

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

ATHATH
S. Langeliers

S. Langeliers

C

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

L. Morales

L. Morales

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

KC beat ATH 4-2. Langeliers's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATH vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 5th Inning · 3-0
+18pp→ 85% WP

Pasquantino · doubled to shortstop, Yastrzemski scored and Massey scored.

ATHBottom 8th Inning · 3-2
+24pp→ 49% WP

Langeliers · doubled to right, Kurtz scored.

KCTop 9th Inning · 3-2
+19pp→ 88% WP

Grichuk · singled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC1000200014
ATH0000001102

Period scoring

KC won 3 · ATH won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Pasquantino 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Pasquantino 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Cortes 1

0
1

Inn 8

Langeliers 1

1
0

Inn 9

Jr. 1

KC
ATH

Play-by-play · 592 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    KC 4·ATH 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  3. B9

    Cortes flied out to left.

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

    −3pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  11. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Carlos Cortes

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  12. B9

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  13. B9

    Hernaiz struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

    −6pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  17. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Darell Hernaiz

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  18. B9

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  19. B9

    Butler struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

    −7pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  24. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Lawrence Butler

    · ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  25. B9

    ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  26. B9

    Wilson hit by pitch.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

    +10pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    KC 4·ATH 2

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

4

Runs

2

8

Hits

6

0

Errors

2

10

TB

8

0

HR

0

5

BB

3

7

K

7

16

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586

Player projections

ATH vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.1low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    4.8± 2.0low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.6± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Brent RookerATH
    0.5± 1.0high
  • Jonah HeimATH
    0.5± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.0%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    55.0%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.8%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.7%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.35 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 25, 25sim 99
    180
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 98
    291
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 97
    73
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 96
    284
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 96
    181
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 18, 25sim 95
    133
    7(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs