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  • MLBTop 2
    ATL 0@CIN 0
    -10.4ppmedium
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@STL 0
    -12.2pphigh
  • MLBBot 9
    LAA 14@TB 3
    -71.5pplow
  • WNBA5:21 - 3rd
    LA 45@CON 48
    +27.8pppeak
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4CIN
TB

TB

53-52

2
6
CIN

CIN

55-50

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
39,848 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

TB 2 · CIN 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0000011002
CIN000002226

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

58%Last 7 · 66-47
61%Last 30 · 329-206
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 12, 25sim 97
    283
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 18, 25sim 97
    133
    7(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 25, 25sim 96
    302
    17(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 95
    304
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 95
    187
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 95
    305
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Jul 26·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds held off Tampa Bay Rays, 6–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Yandy Diaz

Yandy Diaz

DH

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Santiago Espinal

Santiago Espinal

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB53-52
2
6
CIN55-50
TB53-52·CIN55-50
TB

TB

53-52

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
1-44111100
SPRINT25.716
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
0-33000010
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
0-44000003
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
0-33000012
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT2993
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
0-33000012
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
1-33110011
SPRINT28.278
J. DeLucaJ. DeLuca★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT2993
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
0-22000001
J. LoweJ. LoweLF
1-22011000
SPRINT27.251
Team5-32322521410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. PepiotR. Pepiot★SP
6.0220460
B. BakerB. BakerRP
0.2022210
G. CleavingerG. CleavingerRP
0.1100210
K. KellyK. KellyRP
1.0422010
Team8.0764890
CIN

CIN

55-50

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
1-22211030
SPRINT26.838
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
2-44121010
SPRINT28.586
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
2-44022011
SPRINT2872
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
0-33000010
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
0-22000010
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
1-44110001
SPRINT26.735
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-33100012
J. FraleyJ. Fraley★RF
0-44000003
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
0-33000001
C. JoeC. JoeRF
0-11000001
S. EspinalS. Espinal3B
1-11110000
SPRINT26.632
Team7-3131674089
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. AbbottA. Abbott★SP
6.0211371
G. AshcraftG. AshcraftRP
1.0211100
T. SantillanT. SantillanRP
1.0100030
E. PaganE. PaganRP
1.0000000
Team9.05224101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • R. Pepiot
    84 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      37%·94.9 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      27%·87.7 mph·44% whiff
    • SL
      26%·88.7 mph·15% whiff
    • CU
      5%·81.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      5%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Baker
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.4 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      41%·89.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      9%·85.7 mph·— whiff
  • K. Kelly
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      55%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·79.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·91.3 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • SL
      44%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      28%·97.4 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.8 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      11%·91.1 mph·100% whiff

CIN

  • A. Abbott
    95 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      47%·93.4 mph·35% whiff
    • CH
      19%·84.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      17%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·88.9 mph·— whiff
  • G. Ashcraft
    25 pitches·16% CSW
    • SL
      52%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      48%·95.9 mph·25% whiff
  • T. Santillan
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      67%·97.0 mph·11% whiff
    • SV
      24%·86.5 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      10%·86.4 mph·100% whiff
  • E. Pagan
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      64%·96.5 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      27%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      9%·85.2 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

2

Runs

6

1

Errors

1

Current series

CIN wins series 3-0

Jul 25TBTB2@CINCIN7
Jul 26TBTB2@CINCIN6today
Jul 27TBTB1@CINCIN2

Season series

CIN leads series 2-0

Jul 25TBTB2@CINCIN7
Jul 26TBTB2@CINCIN6today
Jul 27TBTB1@CINCIN2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 30pp · Bottom 6th Inning

TBTB
Y. Diaz

Y. Diaz

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

R. Pepiot

R. Pepiot

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

CINCIN
S. Espinal

S. Espinal

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

A. Abbott

A. Abbott

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CIN beat TB 6-2. Friedl's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (30pp).

Win probability

CIN vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 6th Inning · 1-0
+17pp→ 65% WP

Díaz homered to center (415 feet).

CINBottom 6th Inning · 1-2
+30pp→ 73% WP

Friedl · scored and McLain scored, Hays safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Walls.

CINBottom 7th Inning · 2-4
+26pp→ 89% WP

De La Cruz · singled to center, Friedl scored and Steer scored, McLain to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0000011002
CIN00000222—6

Period scoring

TB won 0 · CIN won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
2

Inn 6

Friedl 2

1
2

Inn 7

Lowe 1

Cruz 2

0
2

Inn 8

Friedl 1

0

Inn 9

TB
CIN

Play-by-play · 572 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  2. T9

    J. Lowe lined out to left.

    ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  8. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Josh Lowe

    ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  9. T9

    ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  10. T9

    DeLuca lined out to left.

    ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  14. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Jonny DeLuca

    ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  15. T9

    ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  16. T9

    Caballero lined out to left.

    ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

    +0.8pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  20. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Jose Caballero

    ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  21. T9

    Pagán relieved Santillan

    ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TB 2·CIN 6

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TB 2·CIN 6

  24. B8

    · ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  25. B8

    De La Cruz struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  26. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  27. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 2·CIN 6

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

2

Runs

6

5

Hits

7

1

Errors

1

8

TB

8

1

HR

0

4

BB

8

10

K

9

13

LOB

16

Player projections

CIN vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.1%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    54.6%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.8%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.5%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jose CaballeroNYY · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872