MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CLE

MIA

57-62

CLE

62-56

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

21,874 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.5%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
54.3%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.2%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.8%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Max MeyerMIA
6.6± 1.8medium
Parker MessickCLE
5.8± 2.3low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.5± 0.8high
Heriberto HernandezMIA
1.0± 0.6high
Liam HicksMIA
1.0± 1.0high

Total bases

Heriberto HernandezMIA
2.0± 2.4high
Otto LopezMIA
2.0± 1.7high
Liam HicksMIA
1.7± 2.2high

RBIs

Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.7± 1.0high
Joe MackMIA
0.7± 1.0high
Kyle StowersMIA
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.3± 3.0medium
Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.5± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

CLE

.706

OPS

◀

.717

.689

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.317

4.31

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.01

4.07

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.75

1.25

WHIP

1.31

1.26

8.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

MIA 3 · CLE 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	3
CLE	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
X. Edwards2B	.306	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
A. RamirezC	.236	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
O. LopezSS	.242	4	1	0	0	0	1	2
D. MyersCF	.241	2	1	1	1	0	1	0
H. HernandezLF	.299	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. MarseeCF	.382	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. Wagaman1B	.230	1	0	0	0	0	3	1
D. HillRF	.212	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Sanoja3B	.242	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
L. HicksC	.259	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. StowersLF	.284	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	3	6	2	0	7	7

Player

AVG

RBI

.306

.236

.242

.241

.299

.382

.230

.212

.242

.259

.284

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. JunkSP	5.0	6	3	3	0	2	86
A. BenderRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	19
R. HenriquezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
C. FaucherRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	21
Team	8.0	7	4	4	1	5	137

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

137

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. KwanCF	.275	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SchneemannCF	.234	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Ramirez3B	.294	4	2	3	2	2	0	0
K. Manzardo1B	.244	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
C. Santana1B	.227	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. NaylorC	.176	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. AriasSS	.235	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
N. JonesRF	.212	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. RocchioSS	.230	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. KayfusLF	.259	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MartinezLF	.236	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	4	7	4	3	1	5

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
L. AllenRP	5.0	5	3	2	4	5	93
N. EnrightRP	1.0	1	0	0	2	0	17
H. GaddisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
E. SabrowskiRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	9
C. SmithRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	6	3	2	7	7	145

Team

MIA

CLE

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.