MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2KC

TEX

63-66

66-62

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

13,527 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.6%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
55.6%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.3%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.9%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.3± 3.6low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.0± 2.5low
Jack LeiterTEX
5.7± 3.1low

Hits

Maikel GarciaKC
1.1± 0.8high
Josh JungTEX
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Brandon NimmoTEX
1.9± 2.4high
Joc PedersonTEX
1.9± 3.0high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.9± 1.4high
Brandon NimmoTEX
0.6± 1.1high
Jake BurgerTEX
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Jack LeiterTEX
3.0± 2.4low
Noah CameronKC
2.7± 2.3low
Seth LugoKC
2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

TEX 4 · KC 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	4
KC	0	1	1	2	1	0	1	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
W. Langford★LF	0-4	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. Seager★SS	3-5	5	1	3	0	0	0	1
SPRINT24.96
M. Semien★2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Pederson★DH	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
SPRINT25.716
E. Carter★CF	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.175
R. Tellez★1B	0-3	3	0	0	1	0	0	2
J. Smith★2B	1-4	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
SPRINT27.354
C. Freeman★3B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Heim★C	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. Duran2B	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.891
K. HigashiokaC	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Jung3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Team	10-37	37	4	10	4	0	1	12

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-4

3-5

0-1

1-3

1-2

0-3

1-4

1-4

1-4

2-4

0-2

0-1

Team

10-37

	Pitching
P. Corbin★SP	3.2	7	4	4	2	2	1
J. WebbRP	1.1	1	1	1	1	0	1
L. CurveloRP	1.1	1	1	1	3	3	0
D. CoulombeRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	0
R. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0
Team	8.0	9	6	6	8	6	2

Pitching

Player

3.2

1.1

1.1

0.2

1.0

Team

8.0

	Batting
M. Garcia★3B	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	1	1
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.★SS	2-5	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT30.399+
V. Pasquantino★1B	1-5	5	1	1	1	1	0	2
SPRINT25.411
S. Perez★C	2-4	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
SPRINT241
R. Grichuk★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. India★2B	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	2	0
N. Loftin★2B	1-3	3	2	1	1	1	1	0
SPRINT2872
L. Maile★C	0-2	2	0	0	1	0	1	2
T. Tolbert★2B	1-1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. YastrzemskiLF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0

Team	9-30	30	6	9	6	2	8	6

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI