MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SD

CIN

72-72

79-65

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Petco Park · San Diego, California

40,248 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.3%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
56.3%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.9%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.1%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.98 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.5± 3.8low
Michael KingSD
5.7± 2.2low
Griffin CanningSD
4.8± 2.4low

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.4± 1.0high
Blake DunnCIN
1.3± 1.1medium
Sal StewartCIN
1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

Nathaniel LoweCIN
2.2± 1.7high
Sal StewartCIN
2.2± 2.7high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.8± 2.4high

RBIs

Nathaniel LoweCIN
0.8± 1.0high
Elly De La CruzCIN
0.7± 1.1high
Manny MachadoSD
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.8± 2.9low
Chris PaddackCIN
3.5± 3.4low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.3± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

CIN 3 · SD 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
CIN	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
SD	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
T. Friedl★CF	2-5	5	2	2	1	1	0	0
SPRINT26.838
N. Marte★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
E. De La Cruz★SS	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
SPRINT2872
A. Hays★LF	2-4	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
SPRINT27.354
G. Lux★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Steer★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. Hayes★3B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT26.941
J. Trevino★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. McLain★2B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
SPRINT28.586
S. Stewart1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. StephensonC	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	7-37	37	3	7	3	2	0	13

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

2-5

0-4

1-4

2-4

0-4

0-4

1-4

0-2

1-4

0-1

0-1

Team

7-37

	Pitching
N. Lodolo★SP	5.0	2	0	0	1	2	0
S. BarlowRP	0.2	2	3	3	1	1	0
B. SuterRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. PhillipsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0
T. SantillanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0
E. PaganRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. MartinezSP	0.1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team	9.1	6	4	3	2	7	0

Pitching

Player

5.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

Team

9.1

	Batting
F. Tatis Jr.★RF	1-4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT28.483
L. Arraez★2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Machado★3B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. Sheets★1B	3-3	3	1	3	1	0	1	0
SPRINT26.735
R. Laureano★LF	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
SPRINT2872
J. Merrill★CF	1-4	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
SPRINT28.688
J. Iglesias★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Cronenworth★2B	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT28.891
F. Fermin★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. O'HearnRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Team	6-33	33	4	6	4	0	2	7

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-4

0-4

0-4

3-3

0-3

1-4

0-3

1-4

0-3

0-1

Team

6-33

	Pitching
Y. Darvish★SP	5.2	6	3	3	0	7	2
A. JacobRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. EstradaRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	0
A. MorejonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. MillerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0
R. SuarezRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	0
W. PeraltaRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	10.0	7	3	3	0	13	2

Pitching

Player

5.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.2

0.1

Team

10.0

Team

CIN