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Live · 9
  • MLBMid 1
    MIN 0@PIT 0
    -5.8ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    SD 0@WSH 0
    -5.5ppmedium
  • MLBMid 1
    TOR 0@BAL 0
    -5.6ppmedium
  • MLBMid 1
    KC 0@TEX 0
    -5.9ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    LAA 0@TB 0
    -5.7ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    BOS 0@CLE 0
    -6.0ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    MIA 0@NYM 0
    -5.5ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    MIL 0@HOU 0
    -4.8ppmedium
  • MLBTop 8
    DET 1@CHW 4
    +36.2pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CLE
CLE

CLE

57-55

7
6
NYM

NYM

63-50

Citi Field · Queens, New York
37,886 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 7 · NYM 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
CLE00000500027
NYM00000302016

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 64-42
62%Last 30 · 327-201
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Aug 4·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians went into New York Mets and beat them, 7–6. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Brayan Rocchio

Brayan Rocchio

SS

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Pete Alonso

Pete Alonso

1B

2.200OPS

5-4

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
CLE57-55
7
6
NYM63-50
CLE57-55·NYM63-50
CLE

CLE

57-55

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
2-55120000
SPRINT26.530
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
0-33100000
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-44100010
D. FryD. Fry★RF
1-55111001
SPRINT25.716
C. SantanaC. Santana★1B
1-55111000
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
1-44114101
SPRINT26.530
N. JonesN. Jones★RF
1-55010003
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
2-33020001
SPRINT27.354
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
1-33010001
D. SchneemannD. SchneemannCF
0-11100001
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo1B
0-11000001
Team9-3939796119
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. CecconiS. Cecconi★SP
6.0432161
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
1.0000020
H. GaddisH. GaddisRP
0.2422000
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.1200120
N. EnrightN. EnrightRP
1.0110000
Team10.011642101
NYM

NYM

63-50

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
0-55000004
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
2-55220002
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
2-44220010
SPRINT25.513
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
4-55144101
SPRINT25.29
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
1-55110001
SPRINT25.920
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
0-44001000
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
0-44000011
R. MauricioR. Mauricio★SS
0-22000000
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
1-44010000
S. MarteS. MarteRF
0-11000001
B. BatyB. Baty3B
1-22011000
SPRINT26.735
L. TorrensL. TorrensC
0-11000000
Team11-424261161210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ManaeaS. Manaea★RP
5.2755031
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
0.1000010
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0100010
R. GarrettR. GarrettRP
1.0000020
E. DiazE. DiazRP
1.0100020
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
1.0020100
Team10.0975191

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • S. Cecconi
    99 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      40%·94.8 mph·35% whiff
    • SI
      16%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·84.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      11%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·83.7 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      9%·74.6 mph·29% whiff
  • C. Smith
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      86%·96.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      9%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      5%·86.8 mph·— whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      69%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      31%·94.6 mph·33% whiff
  • E. Sabrowski
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      54%·94.7 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      23%·82.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      23%·86.3 mph·100% whiff
  • N. Enright
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      85%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·84.6 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • S. Manaea
    85 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      61%·90.8 mph·9% whiff
    • ST
      29%·76.8 mph·31% whiff
    • CH
      9%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      80%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·74.8 mph·33% whiff
  • E. Diaz
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • SL
      59%·90.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      41%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garrett
    14 pitches·50% CSW
    • FS
      50%·89.5 mph·80% whiff
    • ST
      21%·85.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      14%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·98.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·97.6 mph·— whiff
  • R. Helsley
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • SL
      63%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      38%·100.5 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Raley
    3 pitches·100% CSW
    • CH
      33%·83.5 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      33%·88.9 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      33%·80.4 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

11

7

Runs

6

1

Errors

2

Current series

CLE wins series 3-0

Aug 4CLECLE7@NYMNYM6today
Aug 5CLECLE3@NYMNYM2
Aug 6CLECLE4@NYMNYM1

Season series

CLE leads series 1-0

Aug 4CLECLE7@NYMNYM6today
Aug 5CLECLE3@NYMNYM2
Aug 6CLECLE4@NYMNYM1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 10th Inning

CLECLE
B. Rocchio

B. Rocchio

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

S. Cecconi

S. Cecconi

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

NYMNYM
P. Alonso

P. Alonso

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-5 · 1 HR · 2.200 OPS

S. Manaea

S. Manaea

RP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 7 H

How it ended

CLE beat NYM 7-6. Fry's play in the top 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Win probability

NYM vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLETop 9th Inning · 5-5
+19pp→ 57% WP

Rocchio · singled to left.

NYMBottom 9th Inning · 5-5
+18pp→ 84% WP

Lindor · doubled to right, Taylor to third.

CLETop 10th Inning · 6-5
+20pp→ 75% WP

Fry · bunted into fielder's choice to third, Schneemann scored on error, Fry second, Ramírez safe at second on throwing error by third baseman Baty, Ramírez safe at third on error.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
CLE00000500027
NYM00000302016

Period scoring

CLE won 2 · NYM won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

5
3

Inn 6

Arias 3

Alonso 3

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Alonso 1

0
0

Inn 9

2
1

Inn 10

Fry 1

Baty 1

CLE
NYM

Play-by-play · 648 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    CLE 7·NYM 6

  2. B10

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 6

  3. B10

    Torrens flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 6

    −7pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 6

  5. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 6

  6. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 6

  7. B10

    Nic Enright pitches to Luis Torrens

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 6

  8. B10

    ·

    CLE 7·NYM 6

  9. B10

    Baty singled to center, McNeil scored.

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 6

    +3pp

  10. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 6

  11. B10

    McNeil to third on a disengagement violation.

    ·

    CLE 7·NYM 5

  12. B10

    McNeil to third on a disengagement violation.

    ·

    CLE 7·NYM 5

  13. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 5

  14. B10

    Nic Enright pitches to Brett Baty

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 6

  15. B10

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 5

  16. B10

    Mullins lined out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 5

    −5pp

  17. B10

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 5

  18. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 5

  19. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 5

  20. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 5

  21. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 5

  22. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 5

  23. B10

    Nic Enright pitches to Cedric Mullins

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 5

  24. B10

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 5

  25. B10

    Vientos grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 5

    −8pp

  26. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 5

  27. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 7·NYM 5

  28. B10

    Nic Enright pitches to Mark Vientos

    ·

    CLE 7·NYM 5

  29. B10

    Enright relieved Smith

    ·

    CLE 7·NYM 5

  30. B10

    Kayfus as designated hitter.

    CLE 7·NYM 5

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

7

Runs

6

9

Hits

11

1

Errors

2

13

TB

15

1

HR

1

1

BB

2

9

K

10

16

LOB

25

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 13 players in cohort
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

NYM vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Kyle ManzardoCLE
    1.6± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.5± 0.5high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.7%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    56.1%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.5%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.7%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.68 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 29, 25sim 96
    305
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 21, 25sim 96
    35
    21(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 31, 25sim 95
    304
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 94
    296
    13(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 14, 25sim 94
    284
    5(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 94
    35
    6(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs