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    DET 1@CHW 2
    +26.8pplow
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FINAL+4DET
LAA

LAA

56-62

5
9
DET

DET

68-51

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
30,810 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

LAA 5 · DET 9 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0000210205
DET210402009

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 12, 25sim 97
    296
    13(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 96
    292
    6(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 8, 25sim 96
    35
    6(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 95
    1510
    5(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 95
    287
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 95
    91
    10(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 10·Final/SeriesDET wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Los Angeles Angels, 9–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Luis Rengifo

Luis Rengifo

3B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Kerry Carpenter

Kerry Carpenter

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA56-62
5
9
DET68-51
LAA56-62·DET68-51
LAA

LAA

56-62

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
2-44020011
SPRINT27.148
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
2-55122100
SPRINT25.920
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-22100021
SPRINT28.688
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-22000020
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-44000002
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
2-44222101
SPRINT27.148
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
1-44011000
SPRINT27.251
C. MooreC. Moore★2B
0-44000001
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
0-33100001
Team7-3232575257
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. KochanowiczJ. Kochanowicz★SP
3.0976211
C. FulmerC. FulmerRP
5.0122431
Team8.01098642
DET

DET

68-51

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
1-33110021
SPRINT28.381
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-33211020
SPRINT25.18
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
2-44224101
SPRINT26.735
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
2-55223101
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-33010010
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-44011001
SPRINT26.941
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
1-44010000
T. SweeneyT. Sweeney★SS
1-33110010
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
0-44100000
Team10-33339109264
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MizeC. Mize★SP
5.0322251
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
1.0211000
R. MonteroR. MonteroRP
1.2122301
W. VestW. VestRP
1.1100020
Team9.0755572

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • C. Fulmer
    85 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      39%·93.0 mph·10% whiff
    • SI
      22%·92.5 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      21%·87.0 mph·30% whiff
    • SL
      11%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·81.1 mph·33% whiff
  • J. Kochanowicz
    84 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      39%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.3 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      11%·89.5 mph·17% whiff

DET

  • C. Mize
    91 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      32%·94.9 mph·10% whiff
    • SI
      23%·95.3 mph·7% whiff
    • SL
      22%·90.3 mph·10% whiff
    • SV
      14%·84.7 mph·60% whiff
    • FS
      9%·89.1 mph·33% whiff
  • R. Montero
    28 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      61%·94.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      18%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Vest
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      40%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.7 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      20%·88.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      7%·91.1 mph·— whiff
  • T. Kahnle
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • CH
      82%·88.0 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      18%·93.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

10

5

Runs

9

1

Errors

0

Current series

DET wins series 2-1

Aug 8LAALAA5@DETDET6
Aug 9LAALAA7@DETDET4
Aug 10LAALAA5@DETDET9today

Season series

DET wins series 5-2

May 2DETDET10@LAALAA4
May 3DETDET9@LAALAA1
May 4DETDET2@LAALAA5
May 4DETDET13@LAALAA1
Aug 8LAALAA5@DETDET6
Aug 9LAALAA7@DETDET4
Aug 10LAALAA5@DETDET9today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 7pp · Bottom 1st Inning

LAALAA
L. Rengifo

L. Rengifo

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

C. Fulmer

C. Fulmer

RP

Top reliever

5.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 1 H · 4 BB

DETDET
K. Carpenter

K. Carpenter

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

C. Mize

C. Mize

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

DET beat LAA 9-5.

Win probability

DET vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+7pp→ 78% WP

Greene · singled to right, Carpenter scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0000210205
DET21040200—9

Period scoring

LAA won 2 · DET won 4

0
2

Inn 1

Greene 1

0
1

Inn 2

Carpenter 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
4

Inn 4

Carpenter 3

2
0

Inn 5

Schanuel 2

1
2

Inn 6

O'Hoppe 1

Greene 2

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Rengifo 2

0

Inn 9

LAA
DET

Play-by-play · 588 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  2. T9

    Schanuel grounded out to second.

    · ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  5. T9

    Neto to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  6. T9

    Neto to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  8. T9

    Will Vest pitches to Nolan Schanuel

    · ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  9. T9

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  10. T9

    Neto reached on infield single to third.

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  13. T9

    Will Vest pitches to Zach Neto

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  14. T9

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  15. T9

    Teodosio struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  20. T9

    Will Vest pitches to Bryce Teodosio

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  21. T9

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  22. T9

    Moore struck out looking.

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

    +0.6pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  28. T9

    Will Vest pitches to Christian Moore

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 9

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    LAA 5·DET 9

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    LAA 5·DET 9

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

DET

Home

5

Runs

9

7

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

15

TB

17

2

HR

2

5

BB

6

7

K

4

15

LOB

13

Player projections

DET vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 66 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low

Hits

  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Riley GreeneDET
    0.9± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.1%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    57.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.5%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.3%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.83 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381