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    DET 1@CHW 2
    +26.8pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3NYY
TB

TB

54-56

4
7
NYY

NYY

60-49

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
44,292 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

TB 4 · NYY 7 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0004000004
NYY331000007

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 30, 25sim 96
    304
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 96
    136
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 96
    243
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 96
    14
    18(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 95
    33
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 95
    57
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Jul 31·Final/SeriesNYY win series 4-3

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Tampa Bay Rays, 7–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Matt Thaiss

Matt Thaiss

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Ryan McMahon

Ryan McMahon

3B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB54-56
4
7
NYY60-49
TB54-56·NYY60-49
TB

TB

54-56

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
0-22000001
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
2-44120000
SPRINT27.148
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
0-00000000
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
1-22011000
SPRINT25.29
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
0-33001001
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-44100001
J. DeLucaJ. DeLuca★RF
1-44111002
SPRINT2993
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
1-33011002
SPRINT27.765
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
0-33000001
J. MangumJ. MangumLF
0-22000000
C. MorelC. Morel1B
1-33110001
J. CaballeroJ. CaballeroSS
0-11000000
M. ThaissM. ThaissC
1-11010000
Team7-3232474009
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. PepiotR. Pepiot★SP
4.0677342
K. KellyK. KellyRP
0.1000100
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
0.2000000
J. RockJ. RockSP
3.0200050
Team8.0877492
NYY

NYY

60-49

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
1-44113100
SPRINT26.941
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
1-44110003
SPRINT24.74
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-44111000
SPRINT27.560
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
1-44112101
SPRINT23.81
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-33110011
J. DominguezJ. Dominguez★LF
1-33010010
A. SlaterA. Slater★RF
0-44001002
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
2-33120011
SPRINT2622
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-33100011
Team8-3232787249
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. StromanM. Stroman★SP
5.0644030
Y. De los SantosY. De los SantosRP
3.0000050
J. LoaisigaJ. LoaisigaRP
1.0100010
Team9.0744090

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • R. Pepiot
    88 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      43%·95.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      35%·87.9 mph·23% whiff
    • SL
      10%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·94.3 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      1%·80.2 mph·— whiff
  • J. Rock
    48 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      40%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·86.5 mph·30% whiff
    • FF
      19%·94.2 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.6 mph·33% whiff
  • K. Kelly
    13 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      62%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·91.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      8%·78.7 mph·— whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    7 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      71%·99.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·91.9 mph·— whiff

NYY

  • M. Stroman
    74 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      35%·89.9 mph·8% whiff
    • FC
      22%·88.6 mph·13% whiff
    • FS
      20%·80.8 mph·57% whiff
    • SV
      11%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·78.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      4%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. De los Santos
    33 pitches·48% CSW
    • CH
      42%·88.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      42%·94.9 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      9%·94.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      6%·84.5 mph·— whiff
  • J. Loaisiga
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      46%·97.8 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      23%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      23%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

8

4

Runs

7

1

Errors

0

Current series

NYY win series 4-3

May 2TBTB0@NYYNYY3
May 3TBTB3@NYYNYY2
May 4TBTB7@NYYNYY5
Jul 28TBTB4@NYYNYY2
Jul 29TBTB5@NYYNYY7
Jul 30TBTB4@NYYNYY5
Jul 31TBTB4@NYYNYY7today

Season series

NYY lead series 7-4

Apr 17NYYNYY6@TBTB3
Apr 18NYYNYY1@TBTB0
Apr 19NYYNYY8@TBTB10
Apr 20NYYNYY4@TBTB0
May 2TBTB0@NYYNYY3
May 3TBTB3@NYYNYY2
May 4TBTB7@NYYNYY5
Jul 28TBTB4@NYYNYY2
Jul 29TBTB5@NYYNYY7
Jul 30TBTB4@NYYNYY5
Jul 31TBTB4@NYYNYY7today
Aug 19NYYNYY13@TBTB3
Aug 20NYYNYY6@TBTB4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 1st Inning

TBTB
M. Thaiss

M. Thaiss

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

R. Pepiot

R. Pepiot

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 7 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

NYYNYY
R. McMahon

R. McMahon

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

M. Stroman

M. Stroman

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 6 H

How it ended

NYY beat TB 7-4.

Win probability

NYY vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+15pp→ 78% WP

Stanton · homered to left center (432 feet), Bellinger scored.

NYYBottom 2nd Inning · 0-6
+11pp→ 95% WP

Rice · homered to center (400 feet), McMahon and Volpe scored.

TBTop 4th Inning · 4-7
+7pp→ 16% WP

Walls · doubled to right, DeLuca scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0004000004
NYY33100000—7

Period scoring

TB won 1 · NYY won 3

0
3

Inn 1

Stanton 2

0
3

Inn 2

Rice 3

0
1

Inn 3

Slater 1

4
0

Inn 4

Aranda 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TB
NYY

Play-by-play · 541 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

  2. T9

    DeLuca struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

    +0.9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

  8. T9

    Jonathan Loaisiga pitches to Jonny DeLuca

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

  9. T9

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

  10. T9

    J. Lowe popped out to shortstop.

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

    +2pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

  13. T9

    Jonathan Loaisiga pitches to Josh Lowe

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

  14. T9

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

  15. T9

    Caminero grounded out to pitcher.

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

    +4pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

  21. T9

    Jonathan Loaisiga pitches to Junior Caminero

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

  22. T9

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

  23. T9

    Thaiss doubled to center.

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

    −4pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

  25. T9

    Jonathan Loaisiga pitches to Matt Thaiss

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

  26. T9

    Loáisiga relieved De los Santos

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 7

  27. T9

    Grisham in center field.

    TB 4·NYY 7

  28. T9

    Bellinger in left field.

    TB 4·NYY 7

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TB 4·NYY 7

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TB 4·NYY 7

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

4

Runs

7

7

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

10

TB

15

0

HR

2

0

BB

4

9

K

9

7

LOB

10

Player projections

NYY vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.0± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.0%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    57.2%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.4%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.5%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Jose CaballeroNYY · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175