MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TEX

ARI

57-62

TEX

61-59

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

25,781 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.7%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
58.1%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.1%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.8%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.82 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.3± 3.5low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
5.8± 2.8low
Jack LeiterTEX
5.6± 3.6low

Hits

Josh JungTEX
1.2± 0.8high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
1.1± 1.4high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.0± 1.0high

Total bases

Corbin CarrollARI
2.2± 2.5high
Jordan LawlarARI
1.7± 1.8low
Josh JungTEX
1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

Ketel MarteARI
0.7± 1.0high
Elias DiazTEX
0.7± 1.1low
Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.6± 3.5low
Ryne NelsonARI
3.4± 3.5low
Zac GallenARI
3.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

TEX

.691

OPS

.715

▶

.700

.306

OBP

.319

▶

.317

4.22

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.25

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.71

1.28

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.23

7.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

ARI 6 · TEX 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
ARI	0	1	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6
TEX	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	0	1	1	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. CarrollRF	.251	5	1	2	2	1	0	1
K. Marte2B	.287	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
G. PerdomoSS	.286	5	1	2	2	1	0	0
L. Gurriel Jr.LF	.246	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Del CastilloDH	.240	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
T. Locklear1B	.189	5	1	2	1	1	0	1
A. ThomasCF	.256	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
B. Alexander3B	.271	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
J. McCarthyCF	.171	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
Team		39	6	11	6	4	1	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.251

.287

.286

.246

.240

.189

.256

.271

.171

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. NelsonSP	5.1	7	5	5	0	6	97
J. BurgosRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	10
K. BackhusRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	12
A. HoffmannRP	1.2	2	1	1	0	2	26
A. SaalfrankRP	0.2	1	1	0	1	0	11
Team	9.1	11	7	6	1	8	156

Player

5.1

1.0

0.2

1.2

0.2

Team

9.1

156

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Smith2B	.265	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
C. SeagerSS	.268	4	1	2	2	0	1	0
M. Semien2B	.226	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. PedersonDH	.144	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. LangfordLF	.238	4	1	1	3	1	0	2
R. Tellez1B	.297	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
A. GarciaRF	.226	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. Jung3B	.247	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. HeimC	.215	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. HaggertyLF	.261	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. Burger1B	.231	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		39	7	11	7	2	1	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
N. EovaldiSP	5.0	8	5	5	1	3	86
J. GrayRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	16
D. CoulombeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
S. ArmstrongRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	13
H. MilnerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
P. MatonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	10.0	11	6	6	1	8	151

Team

ARI

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs ARI.

3 sub-models, blended.