MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NYY

54-54

NYY

58-49

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

35,660 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.9%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
55.2%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.3%
P(NYY win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.5%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.92 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYY vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ryan WeathersNYY
6.7± 3.3low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.1± 2.4low
Will WarrenNYY
6.0± 3.3low

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.3high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.2± 0.8high
Trent GrishamNYY
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Yandy DiazTB
2.1± 1.7high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.0± 2.0high
Ben RiceNYY
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.9± 1.4high
Ryan ViladeTB
0.8± 1.1high
Yandy DiazTB
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Ryan WeathersNYY
2.6± 2.9low
Steven MatzTB
2.6± 2.4low
Will WarrenNYY
2.1± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

NYY

.722

OPS

.715

▶

.762

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.330

4.57

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.03

3.91

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.36

1.22

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.17

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

TB 5 · NYY 7 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	5
NYY	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	1	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Y. DiazDH	.282	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. Aranda1B	.315	5	2	2	1	1	0	2
J. Caminero3B	.256	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Morel1B	.205	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. DeLucaRF	.419	3	0	1	2	0	0	0
J. LoweLF	.244	4	1	1	0	0	0	3
J. CaballeroSS	.227	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
N. FortesC	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
T. WallsSS	.223	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. MangumLF	.290	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. SimpsonLF	.300	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Gray3B	.167	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team		35	5	7	5	1	3	10

Player

AVG

RBI

.282

.315

.256

.205

.419

.244

.227

.000

.223

.290

.300

.167

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. BoyleSP	3.1	4	6	4	3	6	77
M. MontgomeryRP	0.2	1	0	0	2	1	21
I. SeymourRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16
M. EnglertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
B. BakerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
K. KellyRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	12
Team	8.0	6	7	5	5	11	142

Player

3.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

142

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. GrishamCF	.246	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
B. Rice1B	.228	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
P. Goldschmidt1B	.283	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
C. BellingerLF	.282	3	1	1	3	1	1	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.245	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. DominguezLF	.262	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
R. McMahon3B	.308	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. VolpeSS	.216	4	2	2	2	1	0	1
A. WellsC	.211	3	2	0	0	0	1	0
Team		31	7	6	6	2	5	11

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. FriedSP	6.2	4	4	2	2	9	111
J. LoaisigaRP	1.1	2	0	0	0	0	11
D. WilliamsRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	25
Team	9.0	7	5	3	3	10	147

Team

NYY

—

3 sub-models, blended.

NYY vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYY vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.