MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NYM

LAA

49-51

NYM

57-44

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Citi Field · Queens, New York

41,442 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.9%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
55.1%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.9%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.4%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 64 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.7± 4.4low
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.7± 2.3low
Jose SorianoLAA
6.6± 2.9low

Hits

Juan SotoNYM
1.2± 0.8high
Zach NetoLAA
1.1± 1.1high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.7± 2.7high
Zach NetoLAA
2.1± 2.5high
Mike TroutLAA
1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

Vaughn GrissomLAA
1.0± 1.9high
Juan SotoNYM
0.8± 1.1high
Mike TroutLAA
0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.0± 4.0low
Jack KochanowiczLAA
3.0± 2.9low
Reid DetmersLAA
2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

LAA 5 · NYM 7 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYM +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAA	0	1	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	5
NYM	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	2	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
Z. Neto★SS	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT27.148
N. Schanuel★1B	0-4	4	1	0	0	0	1	2
M. Trout★CF	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
T. Ward★LF	2-5	5	1	2	3	0	0	1
SPRINT27.457
J. Adell★RF	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
SPRINT27.867
Y. Moncada★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. O'Hoppe★C	2-4	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
SPRINT27.251
L. Wade Jr.★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Rengifo★3B	3-4	4	1	3	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.148
C. TaylorCF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	9-35	35	5	9	5	1	4	10

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-4

0-4

0-3

2-5

1-4

0-3

2-4

0-3

3-4

0-1

Team

9-35

	Pitching
T. Anderson★SP	6.0	4	4	4	5	4	1
R. DetmersSP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	0
J. FerminRP	0.1	1	2	0	1	0	0
SPRINT27.148
B. BurkeRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	8.0	6	7	5	6	5	1

Pitching

Player

6.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

Team

8.0

	Batting
B. Nimmo★RF	0-2	2	0	0	1	0	1	1
F. Lindor★SS	0-5	5	1	0	1	0	0	0
SPRINT26.941
J. Soto★LF	1-4	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
SPRINT25.513
P. Alonso★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. McNeil★2B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
SPRINT25.920
M. Vientos★1B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Baty★3B	1-3	3	2	1	2	1	1	1
SPRINT26.735
F. Alvarez★C	1-2	2	2	1	0	0	2	0
SPRINT25.716
L. Acuna★CF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. MauricioSS	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

Team	6-30	30	7	6	6	1	6	5

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI