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Live · 8
  • MLBBot 3
    MIA 0@NYM 0
    +15.0pphigh
  • MLBBot 4
    TOR 2@BAL 1
    -26.2ppmedium
  • MLBTop 4
    BOS 0@CLE 1
    +19.2ppmedium
  • MLBBot 5
    SD 3@WSH 1
    -43.2pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    MIL 1@HOU 3
    +50.1pplow
  • MLBBot 4
    KC 0@TEX 3
    +41.1pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    LAA 4@TB 1
    -69.5pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    MIN 2@PIT 7
    +46.5pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5CLE
MIA

MIA

58-63

4
9
CLE

CLE

63-57

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
22,605 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

MIA 4 · CLE 9 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA3001000004
CLE300020409

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 3, 25sim 96
    124
    30(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 95
    187
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 94
    305
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 94
    105
    13(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 94
    57
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 94
    79
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Aug 14·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Miami Marlins, 9–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Xavier Edwards

Xavier Edwards

2B

1.100OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Jose Ramirez

Jose Ramirez

3B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA58-63
4
9
CLE63-57
MIA58-63·CLE63-57
MIA

MIA

58-63

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
2-44120010
SPRINT2872
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
1-44110011
SPRINT2622
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-33111020
SPRINT27.354
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
1-55110001
SPRINT25.614
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-44010000
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-44000002
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
1-44011001
SPRINT28.483
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
0-33000011
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
0-11000010
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja3B
0-22000000
Team7-3434472066
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. CabreraE. Cabrera★SP
5.1755360
L. BacharL. BacharRP
0.2000010
V. BellozoV. BellozoRP
2.0344010
Team8.01099380
CLE

CLE

63-57

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-44210011
SPRINT26.530
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
1-55110001
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
3-44331000
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
1-44011012
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
0-11102010
SPRINT26.530
C. KayfusC. Kayfus★LF
0-33001002
D. FryD. Fry★RF
1-44111001
SPRINT25.716
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-44011001
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
2-33021000
SPRINT24.43
D. SchneemannD. SchneemannCF
0-11000000
Team10-33339108038
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BibeeT. Bibee★SP
5.2542450
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
0.2000100
H. GaddisH. GaddisRP
0.2000000
N. EnrightN. EnrightRP
1.2200110
C. SmithC. SmithRP
0.1000000
Team9.0742660

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • E. Cabrera
    95 pitches·37% CSW
    • SL
      32%·89.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      29%·94.9 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      17%·85.5 mph·63% whiff
    • SI
      17%·97.5 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      5%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
  • V. Bellozo
    45 pitches·16% CSW
    • FC
      33%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      24%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·81.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      13%·75.4 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      7%·78.9 mph·33% whiff
  • L. Bachar
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • ST
      43%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·90.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.5 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      14%·84.1 mph·— whiff

CLE

  • T. Bibee
    102 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      46%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      22%·85.5 mph·9% whiff
    • CH
      13%·81.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      11%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      1%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
  • N. Enright
    25 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      88%·93.0 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      12%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Sabrowski
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      62%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·87.8 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      15%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SL
      80%·89.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      20%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Smith
    5 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      80%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      20%·87.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

10

4

Runs

9

1

Errors

1

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

Aug 12MIAMIA3@CLECLE4
Aug 13MIAMIA13@CLECLE4
Aug 14MIAMIA4@CLECLE9today

Season series

CLE wins series 2-1

Aug 12MIAMIA3@CLECLE4
Aug 13MIAMIA13@CLECLE4
Aug 14MIAMIA4@CLECLE9today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 5th Inning

MIAMIA
X. Edwards

X. Edwards

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.100 OPS

E. Cabrera

E. Cabrera

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

CLECLE
J. Ramirez

J. Ramirez

3B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 3 R · 1.500 OPS

T. Bibee

T. Bibee

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

How it ended

CLE beat MIA 9-4.

Win probability

CLE vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 1st Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 72% WP

Ram · írez doubled to left, Edwards scored, Stowers to third.

CLEBottom 5th Inning · 4-4
+15pp→ 69% WP

Manzardo · singled to left, Kwan scored, Ramírez to third.

MIATop 7th Inning · 4-5
+11pp→ 33% WP

Edwards · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA3001000004
CLE30002040—9

Period scoring

MIA won 1 · CLE won 2

3
3

Inn 1

Lopez 2

Ram 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Hern 1

0
2

Inn 5

Manzardo 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
4

Inn 7

Kayfus 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIA
CLE

Play-by-play · 601 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  2. T9

    Hicks lined out to shortstop.

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  8. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Liam Hicks

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  9. T9

    Smith relieved Enright

    ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  10. T9

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  11. T9

    Ramírez walked, Stowers to second, Edwards to third.

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

    −0.6pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  13. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  19. T9

    Nic Enright pitches to Agustin Ramirez

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  20. T9

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  21. T9

    Stowers singled to center, Edwards to second.

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  24. T9

    Nic Enright pitches to Kyle Stowers

    · ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  25. T9

    ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  26. T9

    Edwards singled to right.

    ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  28. T9

    Nic Enright pitches to Xavier Edwards

    ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  29. T9

    ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

  30. T9

    Sanoja grounded out to third.

    ·

    MIA 4·CLE 9

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

4

Runs

9

7

Hits

10

1

Errors

1

8

TB

11

0

HR

0

6

BB

3

6

K

8

18

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CLE vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.4%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    53.5%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.7%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.7%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.