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Live · 9
  • MLBMid 1
    MIN 0@PIT 0
    -5.8ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    SD 0@WSH 0
    -5.5ppmedium
  • MLBMid 1
    TOR 0@BAL 0
    -5.6ppmedium
  • MLBMid 1
    KC 0@TEX 0
    -5.9ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    LAA 0@TB 0
    -5.7ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    BOS 0@CLE 0
    -6.0ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    MIA 0@NYM 0
    -5.5ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    MIL 0@HOU 0
    -4.8ppmedium
  • MLBTop 8
    DET 1@CHW 4
    +36.2pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3NYM
LAA

LAA

49-53

3
6
NYM

NYM

59-44

Citi Field · Queens, New York
41,591 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

LAA 3 · NYM 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYM +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0010002003
NYM104100006

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 64-42
62%Last 30 · 327-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Jul 23·Final/SeriesNYM win series 3-0

Recap · MLB

New York Mets held off Los Angeles Angels, 6–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Taylor Ward

Taylor Ward

LF

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Brandon Nimmo

Brandon Nimmo

RF

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA49-53
3
6
NYM59-44
LAA49-53·NYM59-44
LAA

LAA

49-53

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-55000002
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
0-44000011
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-55111101
SPRINT28.688
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-22010020
SPRINT27.457
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-33000012
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
0-11000001
T. d'ArnaudT. d'Arnaud★C
1-33010000
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
0-33101011
SPRINT27.148
C. TaylorC. Taylor★CF
1-33011001
K. NewmanK. Newman3B
1-22110000
L. O'HoppeL. O'HoppeC
0-11000000
Team5-3232353159
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. BurkeB. Burke★RP
1.0111011
S. BachmanS. BachmanRP
1.0200000
J. EderJ. EderRP
6.0755171
Team8.01066182
NYM

NYM

59-44

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
2-33221100
SPRINT28.278
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
2-44122001
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
0-44000001
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
2-44123102
SPRINT25.29
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
2-44020001
SPRINT25.411
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.735
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-33010000
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
0-44100001
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
0-22100010
L. AcunaL. AcunaCF
0-11000001
Team10-33336106218
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ManaeaS. Manaea★RP
5.0211251
H. BrazobanH. BrazobanRP
1.0000110
J. ButtoJ. ButtoRP
0.2322000
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
1.0000210
E. DiazE. DiazRP
1.1000020
Team9.0533591

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • J. Eder
    98 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      50%·92.7 mph·12% whiff
    • SL
      22%·87.9 mph·38% whiff
    • ST
      15%·82.6 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      12%·85.5 mph·14% whiff
  • S. Bachman
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      50%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      36%·96.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      14%·94.8 mph·— whiff
  • B. Burke
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      69%·96.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      23%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.3 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • S. Manaea
    82 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      63%·90.7 mph·18% whiff
    • ST
      29%·77.6 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      7%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Raley
    29 pitches·17% CSW
    • ST
      45%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      34%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·89.8 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      3%·84.7 mph·— whiff
  • E. Diaz
    25 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      76%·89.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      24%·97.1 mph·25% whiff
  • J. Butto
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      35%·94.5 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.7 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      15%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Brazoban
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      39%·96.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      22%·91.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      22%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·91.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      6%·88.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

10

3

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

NYM win series 3-0

Jul 21LAALAA5@NYMNYM7
Jul 22LAALAA2@NYMNYM3
Jul 23LAALAA3@NYMNYM6today

Season series

NYM win series 3-0

Jul 21LAALAA5@NYMNYM7
Jul 22LAALAA2@NYMNYM3
Jul 23LAALAA3@NYMNYM6today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

LAALAA
T. Ward

T. Ward

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS

J. Eder

J. Eder

RP

Top reliever

6.0 IP · 7 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

NYMNYM
B. Nimmo

B. Nimmo

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

S. Manaea

S. Manaea

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYM beat LAA 6-3.

Win probability

NYM vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 72% WP

Nimmo · homered to right center (395 feet).

LAATop 3rd Inning · 1-1
+11pp→ 39% WP

Trout · homered to right center (380 feet).

NYMBottom 3rd Inning · 1-5
+15pp→ 92% WP

Alonso · homered to left center (439 feet), Nimmo scored and Lindor scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0010002003
NYM10410000—6

Period scoring

LAA won 1 · NYM won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Nimmo 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
4

Inn 3

Trout 1

Alonso 3

0
1

Inn 4

Lindor 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Rengifo 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

LAA
NYM

Play-by-play · 569 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  2. T9

    Trout popped out to third.

    · ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

    +2pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  8. T9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Mike Trout

    · ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  9. T9

    · ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  10. T9

    Schanuel grounded out to second, Taylor to second.

    · ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

    +2pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  13. T9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Nolan Schanuel

    · ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  14. T9

    · ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  15. T9

    Neto struck out swinging.

    · ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

    +3pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  20. T9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Zach Neto

    · ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  21. T9

    ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  22. T9

    Taylor hit by pitch.

    · ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

    −4pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  24. T9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Chris Taylor

    · ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  27. B8

    ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  28. B8

    Torrens flied out to right.

    ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

  30. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 3·NYM 6

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

3

Runs

6

5

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

9

TB

18

1

HR

2

5

BB

1

9

K

8

19

LOB

12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 30, 25sim 97
    304
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 31, 25sim 95
    304
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 95
    14
    18(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 95
    136
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 95
    93
    19(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 95
    243
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

NYM vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 64 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.5%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    57.1%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.4%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.4%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Luisangel AcunaCHW · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278