HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
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THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+4SD
STL

STL

56-57

3
7
SD

SD

62-50

Petco Park · San Diego, California
44,709 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

STL

league avg

SD

SD

.723

OPS

◀

.717

.658

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.293

4.62

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.89

4.15

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.91

1.34

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.29

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

STL 3 · SD 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL0000000033
SD000200417

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Aug 3·Final/SeriesSD wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off St. Louis Cardinals, 7–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1L. ArraezSD−25.8pp
  2. 2J. CronenworthSD+21.3pp
  3. 3D. CeaseSD+15.2pp

STL · top performer

STL
Ivan Herrera

Ivan Herrera

DH

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Ramon Laureano

Ramon Laureano

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
M. WinnSS
.2705000003
I. HerreraDH
.3073120000
A. Burleson1B
.2844110001
W. Contreras1B
.2562100022
N. Gorman3B
.2224011002
J. WalkerRF
.2274011002
Y. PozoC
.2693000012
T. SaggeseLF
.2303000003
V. Scott IICF
.2274010001
- L. NootbaarLF
.2260001000
Team323630316

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
A. PallanteSP
5.05223493
G. GraceffoRP
2.04441136
R. MunozRP
1.01111222
Team8.0107757151

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.RF
.2643110022
L. Arraez2B
.2985010000
M. Machado3B
.2993100012
J. MerrillCF
.2663113010
X. BogaertsSS
.2703011001
R. O'HearnRF
.1254010000
R. LaureanoLF
.2504221100
J. Cronenworth2B
.2354112102
F. FerminC
.4293120010
Team327107257

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
D. CeaseSP
5.01001990
J. AdamRP
1.00000012
J. EstradaRP
1.00000310
D. MorganRP
1.00001326
A. MorejonRP
0.04331019
R. SuarezRP
1.01000116
Team9.0633316173

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • A. Pallante
    93 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      39%·94.7 mph·6% whiff
    • SL
      32%·87.3 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      17%·78.4 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      12%·95.7 mph·20% whiff
  • G. Graceffo
    36 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      47%·96.3 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      28%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      25%·83.0 mph·40% whiff
  • R. Munoz
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      50%·87.9 mph·80% whiff
    • FC
      18%·93.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      18%·95.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.7 mph·0% whiff

SD

  • D. Cease
    90 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      44%·97.2 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      27%·89.5 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      16%·82.5 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      8%·84.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.3 mph·— whiff
  • D. Morgan
    26 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      42%·97.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      31%·96.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      19%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·87.3 mph·— whiff
  • A. Morejon
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      74%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      5%·95.6 mph·— whiff
  • R. Suarez
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      75%·99.3 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      19%·91.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·98.7 mph·— whiff
  • J. Adam
    12 pitches·8% CSW
    • FF
      42%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·84.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      25%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Estrada
    10 pitches·70% CSW
    • FF
      60%·98.4 mph·60% whiff
    • FS
      20%·84.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.8 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

10

3

Runs

7

1

Errors

1

Current series

SD wins series 2-1

Aug 2STLSTL1@SDSD4
Aug 3STLSTL8@SDSD5
Aug 3STLSTL3@SDSD7today

Season series

SD wins series 4-3

Jul 24SDSD7@STLSTL9
Jul 25SDSD0@STLSTL3
Jul 26SDSD3@STLSTL1
Jul 27SDSD9@STLSTL2
Aug 2STLSTL1@SDSD4
Aug 3STLSTL8@SDSD5
Aug 3STLSTL3@SDSD7today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 21pp · Bottom 4th Inning

STLSTL
I. Herrera

I. Herrera

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

A. Pallante

A. Pallante

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

SDSD
R. Laureano

R. Laureano

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

D. Cease

D. Cease

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SD beat STL 7-3. Cronenworth's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Win probability

SD vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLBottom 2nd Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 41% WP

Laureano · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, O'Hearn out at second, Bogaerts to third.

STLBottom 3rd Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 44% WP

Bogaerts · struck out swinging.

SDBottom 4th Inning · 0-2
+21pp→ 83% WP

Cronenworth · homered to right center (398 feet), Laureano scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL0000000033
SD00020041—7

Period scoring

STL won 0 · SD won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Cronenworth 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
4

Inn 7

Merrill 3

0
1

Inn 8

Laureano 1

3

Inn 9

Gorman 1

STL
SD

Play-by-play · 596 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    STL 3·SD 7

  2. T9

    Winn lined out to pitcher.

    · ·

    STL 3·SD 7

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 3·SD 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 3·SD 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 3·SD 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 3·SD 7

  7. T9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Masyn Winn

    · ·

    STL 3·SD 7

  8. T9

    · ·

    STL 3·SD 7

  9. T9

    Scott II singled to right, Walker to second, Gorman to third.

    · ·

    STL 3·SD 7

    −2pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 3·SD 7

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 3·SD 7

  12. T9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Victor Scott II

    · ·

    STL 3·SD 7

  13. T9

    · ·

    STL 3·SD 7

  14. T9

    Nootbaar hit sacrifice fly to left, Contreras scored.

    · ·

    STL 3·SD 7

    +2pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 3·SD 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 2·SD 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    STL 2·SD 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    STL 2·SD 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 3·SD 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 2·SD 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 2·SD 7

  22. T9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Lars Nootbaar

    · ·

    STL 3·SD 7

  23. T9

    Nootbaar hit for Saggese

    ·

    STL 2·SD 7

  24. T9

    · ·

    STL 2·SD 7

  25. T9

    Pozo struck out swinging.

    · ·

    STL 2·SD 7

    +3pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 2·SD 7

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    STL 2·SD 7

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 2·SD 7

  29. T9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Yohel Pozo

    · ·

    STL 2·SD 7

  30. T9

    Suarez relieved Morejon

    ·

    STL 2·SD 7

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

SD

Home

3

Runs

7

6

Hits

10

1

Errors

1

6

TB

19

0

HR

2

3

BB

5

16

K

7

13

LOB

19

Player projections

SD vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 68 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Dustin MaySTL
    5.3± 3.4low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.2± 2.9low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.2low

Hits

  • Blaze JordanSTL
    1.7± 0.8low
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Blaze JordanSTL
    3.3± 4.3low
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    2.8± 1.6high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    2.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Blaze JordanSTL
    1.3± 2.1low
  • Samad TaylorSD
    1.0± 1.8low
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.0± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 3.1low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.7± 2.2low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.6%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    58.8%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.7%

    P(SD win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.8%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.67 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.