HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 11
  • MLBTop 7
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -7.3pppeak
  • MLBBot 6
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +63.0pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -39.7pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBBot 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.1pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    TEX 1@BOS 7
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBMid 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA1:16 - 4th
    TOR 79@WSH 83
    +23.3pppeak
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1LAD
MIN

MIN

49-53

3
4
LAD

LAD

60-43

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
40,094 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

MIN

league avg

LAD

LAD

.706

OPS

.715

▶

.789

.315

OBP

.319

▶

.347

4.49

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.36

4.79

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.38

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.10

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

MIN 3 · LAD 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN0010000203
LAD1000001024

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Jul 23·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off Minnesota Twins, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1S. OhtaniLAD+89.2pp
  2. 2M. BettsLAD+82.3pp
  3. 3E. RuizLAD+78.6pp

MIN · top performer

MIN
Royce Lewis

Royce Lewis

3B

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Teoscar Hernandez

Teoscar Hernandez

LF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonCF
.2883000013
W. Castro2B
.2574010001
T. LarnachLF
.2422000011
R. JeffersC
.2544000002
K. Clemens1B
.2244000002
T. France1B
.2494010002
M. WallnerRF
.2074000003
R. Lewis3B
.2442121110
B. LeeSS
.2492100010
- H. BaderCF
.2511011000
- D. Keirsey Jr.CF
.0991100001
Team313521415

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
C. PaddackSP
6.04110878
D. CoulombeRP
0.11111016
L. VarlandRP
0.21001015
B. StewartRP
1.01001018
G. JaxRP
0.22222020
Team8.294458147

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BettsSS
.2385110001
S. OhtaniDH
.2734211112
T. HernándezLF
.2534030000
F. Freeman1B
.2955122000
A. PagesCF
.2842000011
D. RushingC
.2162000001
H. KimSS
.3132000002
T. Edman2B
.2274021000
J. OutmanCF
.1033000001
- E. RuizRF
.2500000010
- W. SmithC
.3231000010
- M. RojasSS
.2501000010
- M. ConfortoDH
.1851000000
Team34494158

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
T. GlasnowSP
7.0311112106
K. YatesRP
0.00223018
A. VesiaRP
1.01000010
A. BandaRP
1.01000317
Team9.0533415151

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • C. Paddack
    78 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      42%·94.5 mph·30% whiff
    • CH
      32%·85.8 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      19%·87.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      5%·78.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      1%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Jax
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • ST
      55%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·96.7 mph·— whiff
  • B. Stewart
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.2 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      17%·94.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      17%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·86.4 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      6%·91.9 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Coulombe
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FC
      56%·85.8 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      31%·81.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      6%·90.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Varland
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      40%·98.0 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      40%·87.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      13%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·91.9 mph·— whiff

LAD

  • T. Glasnow
    106 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      28%·90.2 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      25%·96.2 mph·6% whiff
    • CU
      24%·82.9 mph·70% whiff
    • SI
      23%·96.2 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Yates
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      78%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      22%·87.4 mph·— whiff
  • A. Banda
    17 pitches·47% CSW
    • SL
      59%·86.5 mph·71% whiff
    • SI
      41%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Vesia
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      60%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      40%·92.7 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

9

3

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 2-1

Jul 22MINMIN2@LADLAD5
Jul 23MINMIN10@LADLAD7
Jul 23MINMIN3@LADLAD4today

Season series

LAD win series 2-1

Jul 22MINMIN2@LADLAD5
Jul 23MINMIN10@LADLAD7
Jul 23MINMIN3@LADLAD4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 71pp · Bottom 9th Inning

MINMIN
R. Lewis

R. Lewis

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

C. Paddack

C. Paddack

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 4 H

LADLAD
T. Hernández

T. Hernández

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

T. Glasnow

T. Glasnow

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 12 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAD beat MIN 4-3. Freeman's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (71pp).

Win probability

LAD vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINTop 8th Inning · 3-2
+23pp→ 64% WP

Bader · reached on infield single to second, Lee scored.

MINTop 9th Inning · 3-2
+18pp→ 79% WP

Clemens · struck out swinging.

LADBottom 9th Inning · 3-4
+71pp→ 100% WP

Freeman · singled to left, Betts scored and Ohtani scored, Ruiz to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN0010000203
LAD1000001024

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · LAD won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Ohtani 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Lewis 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Edman 1

2
0

Inn 8

Castro 1

0
2

Inn 9

Freeman 2

MIN
LAD

Play-by-play · 598 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 4

  2. B9

    Freeman singled to left, Betts scored and Ohtani scored, Ruiz to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 4

    +71pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

  8. B9

    Griffin Jax pitches to Freddie Freeman

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 4

  9. B9

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

  10. B9

    Ruiz walked, Ohtani to second, Betts to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

    +8pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

  16. B9

    Griffin Jax pitches to Esteury Ruiz

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

  17. B9

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

  18. B9

    Ohtani intentionally walked, Betts to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

    +10pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

  23. B9

    Griffin Jax pitches to Shohei Ohtani

    · ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

  24. B9

    ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

  25. B9

    Betts reached on infield single to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

    +6pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

  27. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 3·LAD 2

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

3

Runs

4

5

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

9

TB

12

1

HR

1

4

BB

5

15

K

8

9

LOB

16

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

LAD vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.3± 3.0low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    6.1± 3.4low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.1± 3.0low

Hits

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    1.5± 0.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.0± 0.5high

Total bases

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    2.8± 1.7high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.0± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ryan WardLAD
    1.1± 1.6low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    3.5± 3.9low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.0± 2.7low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.4%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    58.6%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.2%

    P(LAD win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.2%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.10 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.