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  • MLBBot 1
    MIN 0@PIT 0
    +5.4ppmedium
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    -5.5ppmedium
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    TOR 0@BAL 0
    +5.6ppmedium
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    KC 0@TEX 0
    +5.0ppmedium
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    -5.7ppmedium
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    +36.2pplow
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FINAL+3TEX
TEX

TEX

63-65

6
3
KC

KC

65-62

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
14,312 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 6 · KC 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked KC +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX1010001036
KC3000000003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 64-42
62%Last 30 · 327-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Aug 20·Final/SeriesKC wins series 3-1

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers went into Kansas City Royals and beat them, 6–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Wyatt Langford

Wyatt Langford

LF

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Vinnie Pasquantino

Vinnie Pasquantino

1B

2.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX63-65
6
3
KC65-62
TEX63-65·KC65-62
TEX

TEX

63-65

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
2-22321130
SPRINT2872
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
1-44111010
SPRINT24.96
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
3-55131000
SPRINT28.175
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
1-44013011
SPRINT23.91
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
0-22000001
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
2-55020002
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
2-44120000
SPRINT25.18
C. FreemanC. Freeman★3B
0-44000000
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
0-44000001
J. SmithJ. Smith2B
1-33010001
Team12-37376126156
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BoushleyC. Boushley★RP
3.0533311
J. LatzJ. LatzRP
3.1100140
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
1.1200130
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
1.1000010
Team9.0833591
KC

KC

65-62

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
1-55110001
SPRINT2744
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
3-55130001
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
2-33123120
SPRINT25.411
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
0-33000012
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-33010010
SPRINT241
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
0-22000000
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
0-33000012
JJ. Rave★RF
0-22000000
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-44010002
SPRINT26.941
N. LoftinN. Loftin2B
0-22000000
R. GrichukR. GrichukRF
0-22000001
Team8-3434383159
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. CameronN. Cameron★SP
4.2322351
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.1100000
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
0.2111000
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
0.1200100
S. LongS. LongRP
2.0530110
Team9.01263561

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • C. Boushley
    68 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      25%·90.8 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      22%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·84.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      19%·89.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      7%·76.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Latz
    43 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      35%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·84.6 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      23%·85.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      9%·78.9 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Armstrong
    31 pitches·23% CSW
    • FC
      26%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      26%·93.4 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      26%·84.2 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      23%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Milner
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      42%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      37%·79.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      16%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·81.6 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • N. Cameron
    89 pitches·25% CSW
    • FC
      27%·88.6 mph·27% whiff
    • FF
      22%·92.5 mph·9% whiff
    • CH
      19%·81.7 mph·63% whiff
    • CU
      19%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      12%·84.8 mph·13% whiff
  • S. Long
    42 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      36%·93.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      19%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·77.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      12%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Clarke
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      40%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·89.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      20%·94.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Erceg
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      33%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·96.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      17%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      36%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·94.2 mph·— whiff
    • KC
      18%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·85.0 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      9%·84.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

8

6

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

KC wins series 3-1

Aug 18TEXTEX3@KCKC4
Aug 19TEXTEX2@KCKC5
Aug 20TEXTEX6@KCKC3today
Aug 21TEXTEX4@KCKC6

Season series

KC leads series 5-1

Jun 18KCKC6@TEXTEX1
Jun 19KCKC6@TEXTEX3
Jun 19KCKC4@TEXTEX1
Aug 18TEXTEX3@KCKC4
Aug 19TEXTEX2@KCKC5
Aug 20TEXTEX6@KCKC3today
Aug 21TEXTEX4@KCKC6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 43pp · Top 9th Inning

TEXTEX
W. Langford

W. Langford

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

J. Latz

J. Latz

RP

Top reliever

3.1 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

KCKC
V. Pasquantino

V. Pasquantino

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.467 OPS

N. Cameron

N. Cameron

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

TEX beat KC 6-3. Higashioka's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (43pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

KC vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCBottom 1st Inning · 1-3
+18pp→ 80% WP

Pasquantino · homered to right center (425 feet), Yastrzemski scored and Witt Jr. scored.

TEXTop 7th Inning · 3-3
+20pp→ 49% WP

Seager · singled to right, Heim scored, Langford to second.

TEXTop 9th Inning · 6-3
+43pp→ 96% WP

Higashioka · doubled to left, Langford scored, Semien scored and Seager scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX1010001036
KC3000000003

Period scoring

TEX won 3 · KC won 1

1
3

Inn 1

Pasquantino 3

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Semien 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Seager 1

0
0

Inn 8

3
0

Inn 9

Higashioka 3

TEX
KC

Play-by-play · 630 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TEX 6·KC 3

  2. B9

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

  3. B9

    Pasquantino grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

    −0.6pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

  7. B9

    Hoby Milner pitches to Vinnie Pasquantino

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

  8. B9

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

  9. B9

    Witt Jr. grounded out to second.

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

    −1pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

  16. B9

    Hoby Milner pitches to Bobby Witt Jr.

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

  17. B9

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

  18. B9

    Yastrzemski grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

    −2pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

  25. B9

    Hoby Milner pitches to Mike Yastrzemski

    ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TEX 6·KC 3

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TEX 6·KC 3

  28. T9

    · ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

  29. T9

    Duran grounded out to second.

    · ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

    +0.8pp

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 6·KC 3

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

KC

Home

6

Runs

3

12

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

17

TB

12

1

HR

1

5

BB

5

6

K

9

13

LOB

15

Player projections

KC vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.7± 3.1low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Jake BurgerTEX
    0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.2%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    57.1%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.7%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.3%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.91 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 16, 25sim 98
    14
    18(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 97
    304
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 96
    134
    7(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 31, 25sim 96
    304
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 96
    294
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 96
    132
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872
  • Nick LoftinKC · 2B
    SPRINT2872