MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYY

54-55

NYY

59-49

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

45,355 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.4%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
56.2%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.5%
P(NYY win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.9%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYY vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ryan WeathersNYY
6.3± 3.9low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.2± 2.1medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.2± 4.0low

Hits

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.3± 0.8high
Cody BellingerNYY
1.1± 1.0high
Yandy DiazTB
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.2± 1.6high
Ben RiceNYY
2.0± 2.1high
Cody BellingerNYY
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.9± 1.1high
Cody BellingerNYY
0.7± 0.9high
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Ryan WeathersNYY
3.0± 3.1low
Steven MatzTB
2.5± 2.5low
Will WarrenNYY
2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

NYY

.714

OPS

.717

▶

.770

.333

OBP

.319

.332

4.44

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.21

3.92

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.30

1.23

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.18

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

TB 4 · NYY 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R
TB	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	4
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	1	1	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SimpsonLF	.300	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Lowe2B	.272	4	0	2	1	0	1	0
Y. DiazDH	.283	5	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. Aranda1B	.315	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
J. Caminero3B	.254	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. LoweLF	.245	4	1	1	2	1	1	0
J. MangumLF	.288	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. ThaissC	.214	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. WallsSS	.223	4	2	1	0	0	0	1
J. DeLucaRF	.406	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CaballeroSS	.226	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. Morel1B	.204	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. FortesC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		40	4	9	4	1	3	9

Player

.300

.272

.283

.315

.254

.245

.288

.214

.223

.406

.226

.204

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. LittellSP	5.0	2	0	0	4	4	94
G. CleavingerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	6
M. EnglertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
B. BakerRP	1.0	4	2	2	0	0	23
P. FairbanksRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	12
E. UcetaRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	2	15
K. KellyRP	0.0	1	1	0	1	0	2
Team	10.0	10	5	3	5	9	160

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.0

Team

10.0

160

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.246	4	2	1	1	1	1	1
B. Rice1B	.229	2	0	1	0	0	2	0
C. BellingerLF	.283	5	0	2	1	0	0	0
G. StantonDH	.271	5	0	1	1	0	0	3
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.244	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. DominguezDH	.258	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. McMahon3B	.353	4	0	2	1	0	1	1
A. VolpeSS	.217	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
A. WellsC	.212	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
O. Peraza2B	.152	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
P. Goldschmidt1B	.282	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		38	5	10	5	2	5	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. WarrenSP	6.0	6	1	1	1	4	102
B. HeadrickRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	3	17
Y. De los SantosRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	7
D. WilliamsRP	1.0	1	2	2	1	0	19
L. WeaverRP	1.0	1	1	0	1	1	22
T. HillRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
Team	11.0	9	4	3	3	9	178

Team

NYY

3 sub-models, blended.

NYY vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYY vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.