Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VAN at EDM?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5EDM

VAN

25-49-8

EDM

41-30-11

NHLThu, Apr 16FinalSeriesEDM wins series 3-1VegasEDM -355

VAN · top performer

Ty Mueller

C · #39

1Points

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

Matt Savoie

C · #22

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	0	-1	0	1	1	2	16:27
B. BoeserRW · #6	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	18:15
J. DeBruskLW · #74	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:11
C. DouglasC · #42	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	12:00
N. HoglanderLW · #21	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	13:36
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	0	-2	2	0	2	0	16:19
T. MuellerC · #39	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	12:59
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	0	0	-2	0	0	0	5	11:15
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	0	-2	0	0	3	0	18:19
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	15:59
A. RatyC · #54	0	0	1	2	2	1	0	14:06
M. RossiC · #93	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	13:15

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	0	0	0	0	0	3	4	21:38
F. HronekD · #17	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	27:44
K. KudryavtsevD · #59	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	17:33
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	19:06
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	0	-2	1	2	2	7	14:53
T. WillanderD · #5	0	0	-3	0	1	1	0	17:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LankinenG · #32	35	6	29	.829	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. DachC · #34	1	1	2	1	4	2	5	13:42
T. FredericC · #10	0	0	2	1	1	1	0	14:37
A. HenriqueC · #19	0	0	-1	0	0	0	2	12:23
Z. HymanLW · #18	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	18:11
K. KapanenRW · #42	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:17
C. LazarC · #20	0	0	-1	1	6	1	0	10:14
C. McDavidC · #97	0	4	2	3	0	0	2	18:16
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	17:48
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	17:02
J. RoslovicC · #28	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	16:22
J. SamanskiC · #81	1	0	2	1	1	2	0	14:27
M. SavoieC · #22	3	0	2	6	0	0	0	15:59

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	0	3	3	2	0	1	0	21:52
M. EkholmD · #14	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	19:01
T. EmbersonD · #49	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	18:54
C. MurphyD · #5	0	1	2	2	1	1	5	16:34
D. NurseD · #25	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	20:21
J. WalmanD · #96	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	19:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. IngramG · #39	12	1	11	.917	59:41

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VAN

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

66.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

EDM wins series 3-1

Oct 12

VAN1@

EDM3

Oct 27

EDM3@

VAN4

Jan 18

EDM6@

VAN0

Apr 17

VAN1@

EDM6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VAN+28026%

EDM-35578%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 110 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat VAN 6-1. M. Savoie led the way — 3 G · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VAN	1	0	0	1
EDM	4	1	1	6

Period scoring

VAN won 0 · EDM won 3

VAN

EDM

Play-by-play · 262 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·19:56
Vasily Podkolzin shot blocked by Zeev Buium
·
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·19:52
Giveaway by Marco Rossi
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·18:51
Nils Hoglander hit Ty Emberson
·
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·18:39
Tom Willander shot blocked by Curtis Lazar
·
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·18:23
Elias Pettersson hit Trent Frederic
· ·
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·17:48
Marcus Pettersson shot blocked by Trent Frederic
· ·
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·17:45
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Josh Samanski
·
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·17:45
Puck Frozen - Goalie
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·17:44
Aatu Räty Backhand saved by Connor Ingram
·
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·17:26
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Josh Samanski
·
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·17:26
Puck Frozen - Goalie
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·17:11
Jack Roslovic shot blocked by Zeev Buium
·
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·17:09
Ty Emberson Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·16:52
Jack Roslovic Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·16:40
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins faceoff won against Teddy Blueger
·
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·16:40
Puck in Crowd
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·15:04
Josh Samanski faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·15:04
Goalie Stopped
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·15:02
Jake DeBrusk Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·15:01
Curtis Douglas Wrap-around Wide Right
·
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·14:46
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
·
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·14:46
Icing
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·14:39
Zach Hyman Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·14:28
Connor McDavid Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·14:09
Giveaway by Zach Hyman
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·13:55
Takeaway by Colton Dach
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·13:43
Zeev Buium shot blocked by Josh Samanski
·
VAN 1·EDM 6
3rd·13:25
Filip Hronek shot blocked by Colton Dach
·
VAN 1·EDM 6

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·VAN +280/EDM -355

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers held off Vancouver Canucks, 6–1.

EDM -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

70.2%

ensemble · EDM favored

Elo Static
70.2%
P(EDM win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
70.2%
P(EDM win)
14%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
70.2%
P(EDM win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+280

Close price

+280

Open no-vig

25.2%

Close no-vig

25.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VAN at EDM?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vancouver CanucksEdmonton Oilers

Elsewhere in the NHL