Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at NSH?

The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ANA

ANA

43-33-6

NSH

38-34-10

NHLThu, Apr 16FinalSeriesANA wins series 2-1VegasANA -125

ANA · top performer

Cutter Gauthier

LW · #61

1Points

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

Filip Forsberg

LW · #9

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	1	0	7	0	1	0	18:32
C. GauthierLW · #61	1	0	1	6	2	0	2	18:19
M. GranlundC · #64	0	3	1	3	0	1	0	18:08
A. KillornLW · #17	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	19:39
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	16:42
M. McTavishC · #23	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	16:23
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	17:36
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	10:58
T. TerryRW · #19	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	18:15
J. VielLW · #28	0	1	2	1	0	0	2	11:58
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	10:30

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	2	1	0	1	0	2	20:24
T. HindsD · #60	0	0	2	1	3	3	0	13:41
J. LaCombeD · #2	1	0	0	6	0	0	0	26:27
T. LuneauD · #67	1	0	2	2	1	1	0	11:37
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	15:47
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	8:34
J. TroubaD · #65	0	1	-1	0	2	1	0	22:56

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. HussoG · #33	21	4	17	.810	59:56

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	0	2	-1	3	2	0	0	14:22
F. ForsbergLW · #9	2	0	0	6	0	0	0	17:01
T. JostC · #17	0	0	-1	0	0	0	4	15:11
J. KemellRW · #25	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	13:42
Z. L'HeureuxLW · #68	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	16:46
C. O'HaraRW · #19	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	11:23
R. O'ReillyC · #90	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	21:55
R. SchaeferLW · #49	0	0	-1	1	1	0	2	8:19
S. StamkosC · #91	2	1	1	3	0	2	0	16:49
F. SvechkovC · #40	0	0	-2	2	0	2	2	15:31
O. WiesblattC · #89	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	9:43
M. WoodRW · #71	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	12:16

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BarronD · #20	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	18:37
K. GravelD · #5	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	16:36
N. PerbixD · #48	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	21:40
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	0	-1	1	0	2	2	20:40
R. UfkoD · #85	0	2	-1	0	0	1	2	20:29
A. WilsbyD · #83	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	18:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SarosG · #74	40	5	35	.875	59:25

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

Shots

16.7

PCT

66.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

ANA wins series 2-1

Oct 22

ANA5@

NSH2

Apr 8

NSH5@

ANA0

Apr 17

ANA5@

NSH4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANA-12556%

NSH+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 70 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat NSH 5-4. C. Gauthier led the way — 1 G · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
ANA	2	1	2	5
NSH	2	2	0	4

Period scoring

ANA won 1 · NSH won 1

ANA

NSH

Play-by-play · 305 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
ANA 5·NSH 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
ANA 5·NSH 4
3rd·19:59
Matthew Wood Tip-In saved by Ville Husso
·
ANA 5·NSH 4
3rd·19:54
Filip Forsberg shot blocked by Mikael Granlund
·
ANA 5·NSH 4
3rd·19:51
Steven Stamkos Wrist Shot saved by Ville Husso
·
ANA 5·NSH 4
3rd·19:45
Ryan Ufko shot blocked by Ian Moore
·
ANA 5·NSH 4
3rd·19:40
Filip Forsberg Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
ANA 5·NSH 4
3rd·18:45
Chris Kreider Snap Shot Wide Right
·
ANA 5·NSH 4
3rd·18:25
Chris Kreider Wrist Shot Failed Bank Attempt
·
ANA 5·NSH 4
3rd·18:24
Leo Carlsson Snap Shot saved by Juuse Saros
·
ANA 5·NSH 4
3rd·17:49
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Leo Carlsson
·
ANA 5·NSH 4
3rd·17:49
Timeout - Home
ANA 5·NSH 4
3rd·17:49
Goalie Stopped
ANA 5·NSH 4
3rd·17:48
Cutter Gauthier Slap Shot saved by Juuse Saros
·
ANA 5·NSH 4
3rd·17:35
Jackson LaCombe Slap Shot saved by Juuse Saros
·
ANA 5·NSH 4
3rd·17:06
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Mason McTavish
·
ANA 5·NSH 4
3rd·17:06
Troy Terry Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (22), Leo Carlsson (38)
· ·
ANA 5·NSH 4
3rd·17:03
Mikael Granlund Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros
·
ANA 4·NSH 4
3rd·16:17
Giveaway by Jackson LaCombe
ANA 4·NSH 4
3rd·16:07
Giveaway by Juuse Saros
ANA 4·NSH 4
3rd·16:03
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
·
ANA 4·NSH 4
3rd·16:03
Tyson Jost High-sticking - double minor against Troy Terry
·
ANA 4·NSH 4
3rd·16:03
On-Ice Official
ANA 4·NSH 4
3rd·15:58
Leo Carlsson faceoff won against Fedor Svechkov
·
ANA 4·NSH 4
3rd·15:58
Icing
ANA 4·NSH 4
3rd·15:42
John Carlson hit Zachary L'Heureux
·
ANA 4·NSH 4
3rd·15:31
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Fedor Svechkov
·
ANA 4·NSH 4
3rd·15:31
Icing
ANA 4·NSH 4
3rd·15:24
Giveaway by Mason McTavish
ANA 4·NSH 4
3rd·14:49
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
·
ANA 4·NSH 4

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA -125/NSH +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks went into Nashville Predators and beat them, 5–4.

NSH +1.5 cashed (ANA won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.4%

ensemble · NSH favored

Elo Static
57.4%
P(NSH win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.4%
P(NSH win)
14%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.4%
P(NSH win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at NSH?: The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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