Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at UTA?

The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2STL

STL

37-33-12

UTA

43-33-6

NHLThu, Apr 16FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasUTAH -122

STL · top performer

Robert Thomas

C · #18

3Points

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

Michael Carcone

LW · #53

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerggrenRW · #29	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	15:03
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	1	0	2	2	0	1	0	14:42
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	14:05
J. FinleyC · #37	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	14:13
D. HollowayLW · #81	0	2	2	2	2	2	0	17:06
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	1	2	2	0	1	0	13:48
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	-2	2	3	2	0	14:47
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	16:34
P. SuterC · #22	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	13:38
R. ThomasC · #18	3	0	2	3	0	2	0	16:54
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:25
N. WalkerLW · #26	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	14:23

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	1	3	2	0	1	2	22:11
C. FowlerD · #17	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	18:44
J. HollD · #4	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	18:04
L. MaillouxD · #23	1	0	3	2	1	1	0	22:34
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:58
T. TuckerD · #75	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	18:51

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. HoferG · #30	23	3	20	.870	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	17:49
L. CooleyC · #92	0	0	-2	0	0	1	2	13:51
L. CrouseLW · #67	1	0	-2	2	4	0	0	18:35
C. KellerRW · #9	0	2	-1	1	0	0	0	20:14
A. KerfootC · #15	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	16:29
L. O'BrienC · #38	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	12:06
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	1	-1	3	0	0	0	21:02
N. SchmaltzC · #8	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	18:15
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:25
B. TanevLW · #13	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	11:52
K. YamamotoRW · #56	1	0	-1	2	0	0	0	14:11

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	16:21
N. DeSimoneD · #57	0	0	-1	2	2	2	0	16:27
J. MarinoD · #6	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	19:14
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:25
M. SergachevD · #98	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	20:25
D. SimashevD · #26	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	12:19
M. WeegarD · #52	0	2	0	1	1	1	2	17:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	18	3	15	.833	40:00
V. VanecekG · #41	10	1	9	.900	18:31

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Oct 24

UTA7@

STL4

Nov 30

UTA0@

STL1

Jan 10

STL2@

UTA4

Apr 16

STL5@

UTA3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STL+10250%

UTA-12255%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 65 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat UTA 5-3. R. Thomas led the way — 3 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
STL	1	2	2	5
UTA	1	2	0	3

Period scoring

STL won 1 · UTA won 0

STL

UTA

Play-by-play · 311 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
STL 5·UTA 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
STL 5·UTA 3
3rd·19:22
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Jack Finley
·
STL 5·UTA 3
3rd·19:22
Robert Thomas Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (30), Philip Broberg (28)
· ·
STL 5·UTA 3
3rd·19:13
Clayton Keller shot blocked by Dylan Holloway
· ·
STL 4·UTA 3
3rd·19:11
Nick Schmaltz faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
STL 4·UTA 3
3rd·19:11
Timeout - Home
STL 4·UTA 3
3rd·19:11
Icing
STL 4·UTA 3
3rd·19:07
Dylan Holloway Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
STL 4·UTA 3
3rd·19:07
Lawson Crouse shot blocked by Robert Thomas
·
STL 4·UTA 3
3rd·18:37
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz
·
STL 4·UTA 3
3rd·18:37
Icing
STL 4·UTA 3
3rd·18:33
Joel Hofer Snap Shot Wide Left
STL 4·UTA 3
3rd·18:11
Nick Schmaltz shot blocked by Philip Broberg
·
STL 4·UTA 3
3rd·17:57
Giveaway by Mikhail Sergachev
STL 4·UTA 3
3rd·17:53
Nick Schmaltz faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
STL 4·UTA 3
3rd·17:53
Puck in Crowd
STL 4·UTA 3
3rd·17:50
John Marino shot blocked by Jake Neighbours
·
STL 4·UTA 3
3rd·17:43
Kailer Yamamoto Wrist Shot Off Crossbar
·
STL 4·UTA 3
3rd·17:20
Michael Carcone shot blocked by Cam Fowler
·
STL 4·UTA 3
3rd·17:17
Alexander Kerfoot faceoff won against Dalibor Dvorsky
·
STL 4·UTA 3
3rd·17:17
Puck in Benches
STL 4·UTA 3
3rd·17:03
Logan Cooley faceoff won against Dalibor Dvorsky
·
STL 4·UTA 3
3rd·17:03
Logan Mailloux Goal (5) Backhand, assists: none
STL 4·UTA 3
3rd·17:02
Giveaway by Clayton Keller
STL 3·UTA 3
3rd·16:37
Nathan Walker hit Nate Schmidt
·
STL 3·UTA 3
3rd·16:18
Tyler Tucker Snap Shot saved by Vitek Vanecek
·
STL 3·UTA 3
3rd·16:08
Michael Carcone hit Justin Holl
·
STL 3·UTA 3
3rd·16:08
Justin Holl Slap Shot Wide Left
·
STL 3·UTA 3
3rd·16:05
Alexey Toropchenko Snap Shot Wide Left
·
STL 3·UTA 3

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·STL +102/UTA -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues went into Utah Mammoth and beat them, 5–3.

STL +1.5 cashed (UTA lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.8%

ensemble · UTA favored

Elo Static
61.8%
P(UTA win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.8%
P(UTA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.8%
P(UTA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-122

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

52.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at UTA?: The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

St. Louis BluesUtah Mammoth

Elsewhere in the NHL