Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at WPG?

The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5SJ

39-35-8

WPG

35-35-12

NHLThu, Apr 16FinalSeriesSJ wins series 3-0VegasWPG -162

SJ · top performer

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

3Points

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

Kyle Connor

LW · #81

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	1	2	2	3	0	0	0	14:41
I. ChernyshovLW · #92	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	15:23
T. DellandreaC · #10	0	0	0	3	3	0	2	16:43
W. EklundLW · #72	1	2	2	3	0	1	0	14:24
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	14:07
C. GrafRW · #51	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:33
P. KurashevC · #96	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	14:47
M. MisaC · #77	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	13:34
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:40
P. RegendaLW · #84	0	0	-1	0	3	0	10	9:00
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	1	2	4	1	1	0	14:05
W. SmithC · #2	1	1	2	5	0	0	0	13:38

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CagnoniD · #42	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	18:06
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	4	0	1	1	2	21:08
M. FerraroD · #38	0	1	1	1	3	3	0	21:23
J. KlingbergD · #3	0	3	3	0	0	0	0	20:54
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	21:24
D. OrlovD · #9	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:30

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NedeljkovicG · #33	27	1	26	.963	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. ChibrikovRW · #90	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	10:37
K. ConnorLW · #81	0	0	-2	7	0	1	0	18:18
C. KoepkeLW · #45	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	11:52
B. LambertC · #93	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	14:44
A. LowryC · #17	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:42
N. NiederreiterRW · #62	0	0	-1	4	1	0	2	15:37
C. PerfettiC · #91	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	17:16
I. RosenRW · #27	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	13:25
M. ScheifeleC · #55	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	18:34
J. ToewsC · #19	0	0	-3	0	0	1	0	16:10
G. VilardiC · #13	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	17:24
B. YagerC · #29	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:17

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	-4	0	2	1	0	19:45
H. FleuryD · #24	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	18:59
V. HeinolaD · #34	0	0	-1	0	0	0	4	15:54
C. MillerD · #6	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:38
J. MorrisseyD · #44	0	0	-1	1	0	1	2	21:36
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	-1	4	0	1	0	19:17

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. ComrieG · #1	33	6	27	.818	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

SJ wins series 3-0

Nov 8

WPG1@

SJ2

Mar 1

WPG1@

SJ2

Apr 17

SJ6@

WPG1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WPG -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJ+13642%

WPG-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗

Line movement · 75 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat WPG 6-1. M. Celebrini led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SJ	2	3	1	6
WPG	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

SJ won 3 · WPG won 0

WPG

Play-by-play · 286 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·18:47
Kyle Connor Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·18:43
Giveaway by John Klingberg
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·18:12
Cole Koepke Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·18:04
Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Adam Lowry
·
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·18:04
Ville Heinola High-sticking - double minor against William Eklund
·
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·17:45
Takeaway by Mark Scheifele
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·17:37
Takeaway by Kiefer Sherwood
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·17:20
Mario Ferraro hit Mark Scheifele
·
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·17:09
Zack Ostapchuk shot blocked by Dylan DeMelo
·
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·16:20
Haydn Fleury hit Philipp Kurashev
·
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·16:16
Philipp Kurashev Wrist Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·15:40
Brad Lambert Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·15:16
Dylan Samberg Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·14:53
Brayden Yager faceoff won against Michael Misa
·
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·14:53
TV Timeout
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·14:53
Pavol Regenda Misconduct
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·14:53
Ty Dellandrea Roughing against Josh Morrissey
·
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·14:53
Josh Morrissey Roughing against Ty Dellandrea
·
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·14:53
Goalie Stopped
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·14:47
Ty Dellandrea Wrist Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·14:46
Ty Dellandrea Wrist Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·14:45
Ty Dellandrea Wrist Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·14:43
Collin Graf Wrist Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·14:33
Kyle Connor Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·13:19
Luca Cagnoni Wrist Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·13:14
Cole Koepke hit Michael Misa
·
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·12:54
Kiefer Sherwood Backhand saved by Eric Comrie
·
SJ 6·WPG 1
3rd·12:46
Takeaway by Luca Cagnoni
SJ 6·WPG 1

Betting line

WPG -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +136/WPG -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks went into Winnipeg Jets and beat them, 6–1.

SJ +1.5 cashed (WPG lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.6%

ensemble · WPG favored

Elo Static
56.6%
P(WPG win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.6%
P(WPG win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
56.6%
P(WPG win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at WPG?: The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

San Jose SharksWinnipeg Jets

Elsewhere in the NHL