Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at COL?

The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2COL

SEA

34-37-11

COL

55-16-11

NHLThu, Apr 16FinalSeriesCOL wins series 3-0VegasCOL -218

SEA · top performer

Kaapo Kakko

RW · #84

0Points

—

SOG

COL · top performer

Parker Kelly

C · #17

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15:34
B. CattonC · #27	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	13:31
J. EberleRW · #7	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:13
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	0	-2	0	2	0	0	15:10
K. KakkoRW · #84	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	12:18
B. McMannC · #74	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:36
B. MeyersC · #59	0	0	-2	2	3	1	0	14:35
J. NymanRW · #38	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:09
C. StephensonC · #9	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:16
E. TolvanenRW · #20	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	14:54
R. WintertonC · #26	0	0	-2	0	1	2	0	13:53
S. WrightC · #51	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	13:28

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	0	-1	1	3	2	6	20:36
R. EvansD · #41	0	0	0	1	2	3	2	19:06
C. FleuryD · #8	0	0	-1	0	4	3	0	15:42
A. LarssonD · #6	0	0	-1	4	1	3	0	21:54
R. LindgrenD · #55	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	16:58
B. MontourD · #62	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	21:57

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. OstmanG · #1	35	2	33	.943	57:10

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BardakovC · #93	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	11:31
A. Barre-BouletC · #72	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:02
R. ColtonC · #20	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:27
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:24
P. KellyC · #17	1	0	2	3	0	0	0	13:37
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	14:22
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	17:40
B. NelsonC · #11	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	19:21
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	18:13
L. O'ConnorRW · #25	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	13:47
J. PolinRW · #14	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	10:13
N. RoyC · #10	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	16:42

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BlankenburgD · #37	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	15:24
B. BurnsD · #84	0	1	1	1	0	0	2	17:14
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	19:20
C. MakarD · #8	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	21:22
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	0	4	2	1	2	19:57
D. ToewsD · #7	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	22:24

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. WedgewoodG · #41	22	0	22	1.000	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

COL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

COL wins series 3-0

Dec 17

COL5@

SEA3

Mar 13

COL5@

SEA1

Apr 17

SEA0@

COL2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SEA+18036%

COL-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 67 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat SEA 2-0. P. Kelly led the way — 1 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SEA	0	0	0	0
COL	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

SEA won 0 · COL won 2

SEA

COL

Play-by-play · 305 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·19:46
Jack Drury faceoff won against Berkly Catton
·
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·19:46
Icing
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·19:39
Jack Drury faceoff won against Shane Wright
·
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·19:39
Icing
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·19:35
Joel Kiviranta Wrist Shot Wide Left
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·19:26
Giveaway by Joel Kiviranta
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·19:20
Brandon Montour Tip-In saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·19:11
Bobby McMann shot blocked by Brett Kulak
·
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·18:54
Giveaway by Logan O'Connor
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·18:45
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Jack Drury
·
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·18:45
Puck in Netting
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·18:35
Ryker Evans shot blocked by Artturi Lehkonen
·
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·17:48
Shane Wright faceoff won against Nicolas Roy
·
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·17:48
Puck in Crowd
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·17:39
Vince Dunn Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·17:37
Chandler Stephenson shot blocked by Bobby McMann
·
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·17:02
Vince Dunn hit Parker Kelly
·
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·16:58
Giveaway by Brandon Montour
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·16:51
Valeri Nichushkin Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·16:48
Giveaway by Vince Dunn
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·16:40
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·16:40
Puck in Netting
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·16:38
Jason Polin shot blocked by Vince Dunn
·
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·16:23
Zakhar Bardakov faceoff won against Matty Beniers
·
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·16:23
Goalie Stopped
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·16:20
Parker Kelly Backhand saved by Victor Ostman
·
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·16:13
Adam Larsson hit Logan O'Connor
·
SEA 0·COL 2
3rd·15:39
Giveaway by Chandler Stephenson
SEA 0·COL 2

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·SEA +180/COL -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche held off Seattle Kraken, 2–0.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

73.2%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
72.9%
P(COL win)
46%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
72.9%
P(COL win)
9%
weight
Xg Blend
73.5%
P(COL win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-218

Close price

-218

Open no-vig

65.7%

Close no-vig

65.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at COL?: The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

COL vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 117 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nathan MacKinnonCOL
4.1± 2.3high
Nazem KadriCOL
3.1± 2.3high
Bobby McMannSEA
3.0± 1.8high

Goals

Nathan MacKinnonCOL
0.7± 0.7high
Mackie SamoskevichSEA
0.4± 0.5high
Gabriel LandeskogCOL
0.3± 0.5high

Points

Nathan MacKinnonCOL
1.5± 1.2high
Martin NecasCOL
1.2± 1.0high
Gabriel LandeskogCOL
0.8± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Seattle KrakenColorado Avalanche

Elsewhere in the NHL