Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at CGY?

The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CGY

35-27-20

CGY

34-39-9

NHLThu, Apr 16FinalSeriesCGY wins series 3-1VegasLA -175

LA · top performer

Trevor Moore

LW · #12

1Points

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

Joel Farabee

LW · #86

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ArmiaRW · #40	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:05
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	21:51
S. HeleniusC · #79	0	0	-1	0	2	0	2	8:06
M. JosephRW · #17	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	8:33
A. KempeRW · #9	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	20:31
A. KopitarC · #11	0	0	-1	3	0	2	0	19:41
A. LaferriereRW · #14	0	1	0	2	1	0	2	20:02
S. LaughtonC · #21	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	13:33
T. MooreLW · #12	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	18:01
A. PanarinLW · #10	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	20:26
T. WardRW · #52	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	6:10
J. WrightRW · #53	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	10:38

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	21:33
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	18:26
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	19:34
D. DoughtyD · #8	0	0	0	1	3	1	2	21:39
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	-1	0	0	1	2	16:08
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	16:44

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. ForsbergG · #31	19	2	17	.895	58:35

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:22
B. ColemanLW · #20	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	16:37
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	1	0	2	2	0	0	19:24
J. FarabeeLW · #86	1	0	1	5	0	1	2	20:40
M. FrostC · #16	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:55
M. GridinRW · #92	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	18:34
R. KerinsC · #6	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	12:26
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	11:21
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:03
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	13:13
R. StromeC · #22	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	12:56
A. SunievLW · #36	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	11:46

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. BrzustewiczD · #48	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	19:53
O. MaattaD · #3	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	22:12
B. PachalD · #94	0	0	-1	0	0	4	0	16:08
Z. ParekhD · #19	1	0	2	2	3	1	0	22:10
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	2	2	2	3	6	0	20:30
A. WiebeD · #52	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	13:50

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SergeevG · #40	28	1	27	.964	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CGY wins series 3-1

Dec 14

CGY2@

LA1

Mar 1

CGY0@

LA2

Mar 25

LA2@

CGY3

Apr 17

LA1@

CGY3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LA-17564%

CGY+14541%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 80 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat LA 3-1. J. Farabee led the way — 1 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
LA	0	1	0	1
CGY	0	1	2	3

Period scoring

LA won 0 · CGY won 1

CGY

Play-by-play · 313 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
LA 1·CGY 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
LA 1·CGY 3
3rd·19:50
Samuel Helenius faceoff won against Rory Kerins
·
LA 1·CGY 3
3rd·19:50
Puck in Netting
LA 1·CGY 3
3rd·19:47
Abram Wiebe shot blocked by Taylor Ward
·
LA 1·CGY 3
3rd·19:31
Rory Kerins faceoff won against Samuel Helenius
·
LA 1·CGY 3
3rd·19:31
Icing
LA 1·CGY 3
3rd·19:20
Samuel Helenius faceoff won against Rory Kerins
·
LA 1·CGY 3
3rd·19:20
Joel Farabee Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Zach Whitecloud (15)
·
LA 1·CGY 3
3rd·18:46
Quinton Byfield shot blocked by Zach Whitecloud
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·18:41
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Morgan Frost
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·18:41
Timeout - Visitor
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·18:41
Off-side
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·18:37
Takeaway by Alex Laferriere
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·18:34
Giveaway by Artemi Panarin
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·18:24
Adrian Kempe Slap Shot Wide Left
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·18:20
Brandt Clarke shot blocked by Anze Kopitar
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·17:40
Matt Coronato Snap Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·17:38
Takeaway by Morgan Frost
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·17:29
Giveaway by Olli Määttä
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·16:43
Joel Armia shot blocked by Brayden Pachal
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·16:10
Joel Farabee Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·15:54
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·15:54
Goalie Stopped
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·15:52
Trevor Moore Wrist Shot saved by Arsenii Sergeev
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·15:13
Quinton Byfield faceoff won against Morgan Frost
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·15:13
Puck in Crowd
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·15:09
Quinton Byfield Snap Shot saved by Arsenii Sergeev
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·14:56
Alex Laferriere shot blocked by Mikey Anderson
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·14:42
Adam Klapka hit Mikey Anderson
·
LA 1·CGY 2

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 6.5·LA -175/CGY +145

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

algary Flames held off Los Angeles Kings, 3–1.

CGY +1.5 cashed (LA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.3%

ensemble · CGY favored

Elo Static
55.3%
P(CGY win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.3%
P(CGY win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.3%
P(CGY win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at CGY?: The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

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