NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CGY

35-27-20

CGY

34-39-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Apr 16FinalSeriesCGY wins series 3-1VegasLA -175

Recap · NHL

algary Flames held off Los Angeles Kings, 3–1.

CGY +1.5 cashed (LA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LA · top performer

Quinton Byfield

RW · #55

1Points

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

Matt Coronato

RW · #27

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

LA35-27-20

CGY34-39-9

LA35-27-20CGY34-39-9

35-27-20

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

CGY

34-39-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

CGY wins series 3-1

Dec 14

CGY2@

LA1

Mar 1

CGY0@

LA2

Mar 25

LA2@

CGY3

Apr 17

LA1@

CGY3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LA-17564%

CGY+14541%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat LA 3-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
LA	0	1	0	1
CGY	0	1	2	3

Period scoring

LA won 0 · CGY won 1

CGY

Play-by-play · 313 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
LA 1·CGY 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
LA 1·CGY 3
3rd·19:50
Samuel Helenius faceoff won against Rory Kerins
·
LA 1·CGY 3
3rd·19:50
Puck in Netting
LA 1·CGY 3
3rd·19:47
Abram Wiebe shot blocked by Taylor Ward
·
LA 1·CGY 3
3rd·19:31
Rory Kerins faceoff won against Samuel Helenius
·
LA 1·CGY 3
3rd·19:31
Icing
LA 1·CGY 3
3rd·19:20
Samuel Helenius faceoff won against Rory Kerins
·
LA 1·CGY 3
3rd·19:20
Joel Farabee Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Zach Whitecloud (15)
·
LA 1·CGY 3
3rd·18:46
Quinton Byfield shot blocked by Zach Whitecloud
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·18:41
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Morgan Frost
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·18:41
Timeout - Visitor
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·18:41
Off-side
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·18:37
Takeaway by Alex Laferriere
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·18:34
Giveaway by Artemi Panarin
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·18:24
Adrian Kempe Slap Shot Wide Left
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·18:20
Brandt Clarke shot blocked by Anze Kopitar
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·17:40
Matt Coronato Snap Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·17:38
Takeaway by Morgan Frost
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·17:29
Giveaway by Olli Määttä
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·16:43
Joel Armia shot blocked by Brayden Pachal
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·16:10
Joel Farabee Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·15:54
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·15:54
Goalie Stopped
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·15:52
Trevor Moore Wrist Shot saved by Arsenii Sergeev
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·15:13
Quinton Byfield faceoff won against Morgan Frost
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·15:13
Puck in Crowd
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·15:09
Quinton Byfield Snap Shot saved by Arsenii Sergeev
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·14:56
Alex Laferriere shot blocked by Mikey Anderson
·
LA 1·CGY 2
3rd·14:42
Adam Klapka hit Mikey Anderson
·
LA 1·CGY 2

Team stats

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 6.5·LA -175/CGY +145

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE

Mikael BacklundCGY · C
SHOT MPH93.594
Adam KlapkaCGY · RW
SHOT MPH92.691
Joel FarabeeCGY · LW
DIST MI215.486
Matt CoronatoCGY · RW
DIST MI214.185
Morgan FrostCGY · C
BURSTS14285

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CGY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

CGY vs LA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 126 high confidence

Shots on goal

Alex LaferriereLA
3.0± 1.6high
Quinton ByfieldLA
3.0± 2.2high
Blake ColemanCGY
2.7± 1.6high

Goals

Adrian KempeLA
0.5± 0.7high
Blake ColemanCGY
0.4± 0.7high
Morgan FrostCGY
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Matt CoronatoCGY
0.8± 0.8high
Alex LaferriereLA
0.8± 0.8high
Artemi PanarinLA
0.8± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands