Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYR at TB?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NYR

NYR

34-39-9

50-26-6

NHLWed, Apr 15FinalSeriesNYR win series 2-1VegasTB -142

NYR · top performer

Tye Kartye

LW · #24

3Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Corey Perry

RW · #10

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChmelarRW · #49	0	0	0	1	4	1	4	13:26
W. CuylleLW · #50	0	1	1	1	5	2	4	14:39
T. KartyeLW · #24	2	1	1	3	2	1	2	15:05
N. LabaC · #42	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	11:27
A. LafreniereLW · #13	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	18:13
J.T. MillerLW · #8	0	2	0	2	0	1	0	16:23
G. PerreaultRW · #94	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	17:10
T. RaddyshRW · #14	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	8:57
C. ShearyLW · #43	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	11:37
A. SykoraLW · #38	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	8:44
V. TrocheckC · #16	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	20:19
M. ZibanejadC · #93	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	21:42

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	0	1	0	1	4	0	16:17
D. FortescueD · #45	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15:44
A. FoxD · #23	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	21:32
V. GavrikovD · #44	0	1	0	1	0	2	0	26:23
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	0	2	0	2	1	0	16:41
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	19:41

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. GarandG · #33	31	2	29	.935	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	1	0	1	2	2	2	2	19:16
M. ChaffeeRW · #41	0	1	0	0	5	1	0	13:19
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	17:43
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	12:56
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	18:56
B. HagelLW · #38	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	20:16
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	20:54
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	21:47
J. PelletierLW · #11	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	11:10
C. PerryRW · #10	1	0	1	4	0	1	2	16:12
S. SabourinRW · #46	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	11:27

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CarlileD · #67	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	18:46
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	15:53
M. CrozierD · #24	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:30
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	-1	3	1	0	2	19:45
E. LillebergD · #78	0	1	1	1	0	1	4	16:20
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	0	-1	5	1	2	0	18:51
S. SantiniD · #16	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	8:49

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. HalversonG · #33	21	4	17	.810	56:47

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NYR

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NYR win series 2-1

Nov 13

NYR7@

TB3

Nov 29

TB4@

NYR1

Apr 15

NYR4@

TB2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYR+12045%

TB-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 54 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYR beat TB 4-2. T. Kartye led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYR	1	3	0	4
TB	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

NYR won 2 · TB won 1

NYR

Play-by-play · 310 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·19:46
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·19:46
Goalie Stopped
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·19:43
Brandon Hagel Slap Shot saved by Dylan Garand
·
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·19:39
Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·19:16
Tye Kartye shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
· ·
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·19:11
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·19:11
Icing
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·19:04
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·19:04
Icing
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·19:00
Vladislav Gavrikov Snap Shot Wide Right
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·18:39
Brandon Hagel Backhand saved by Dylan Garand
·
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·18:36
Nick Paul faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck
·
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·18:36
Timeout - Home
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·18:36
Goalie Stopped
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·18:34
Darren Raddysh Slap Shot saved by Dylan Garand
· ·
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·18:21
Darren Raddysh Slap Shot saved by Dylan Garand
· ·
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·18:10
Corey Perry Snap Shot Wide Right
·
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·17:53
Nick Paul Tip-In saved by Dylan Garand
·
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·17:37
Corey Perry Tip-In saved by Dylan Garand
·
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·17:03
Giveaway by Darren Raddysh
·
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·16:50
Giveaway by Braden Schneider
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·16:47
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·16:47
Tye Kartye Slashing against Darren Raddysh
· ·
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·16:43
Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·16:43
Goalie Stopped
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·16:40
Taylor Raddysh Deflected saved by Brandon Halverson
· ·
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·16:19
Zemgus Girgensons shot blocked by Will Borgen
·
NYR 4·TB 2
3rd·16:12
Corey Perry shot blocked by Will Borgen
·
NYR 4·TB 2

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYR +120/TB -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Rangers went into Tampa Bay Lightning and beat them, 4–2.

NYR +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 skaters with EDGE

J.T. MillerNYR · LW
SHOT MPH102.699+
Darren RaddyshTOR · D
SHOT MPH97.797
Adam FoxNYR · D
CORSI%6094
Vladislav GavrikovNYR · D
DIST MI263.494
Noah LabaNYR · C
BURSTS17992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.9%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
70.3%
P(TB win)
45%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
70.3%
P(TB win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
70.0%
P(TB win)
45%
weight

Disagreement

0.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYR at TB?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

TB vs NYR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high
Jake GuentzelTB
2.8± 1.5high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Gabe PerreaultNYR
0.4± 1.0high
Jake GuentzelTB
0.4± 0.5high

Points

Adam FoxNYR
1.2± 1.0high
Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
J.T. MillerNYR
1.0± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands