Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at CHI?

The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CHI

38-35-8

CHI

29-39-14

NHLWed, Apr 15FinalSeriesCHI wins series 2-1VegasSJ -125

SJ · top performer

Mario Ferraro

D · #38

1Points

—

SOG

CHI · top performer

Louis Crevier

D · #46

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	0	0	-3	3	0	1	0	18:54
I. ChernyshovLW · #92	0	0	-2	0	0	1	2	15:33
W. EklundLW · #72	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	17:03
A. GaudetteRW · #81	0	0	-1	3	2	0	0	9:46
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	10:11
C. GrafRW · #51	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	15:25
M. MisaC · #77	1	0	0	2	1	1	0	14:37
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	10:53
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	2	0	0	6	0	0	18:17
W. SmithC · #2	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	16:59
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	14:07
A. WennbergC · #21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19:52

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CagnoniD · #42	0	0	-1	2	2	1	2	21:06
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	20:45
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	-2	0	3	1	0	16:34
M. FerraroD · #38	1	0	-3	3	1	1	0	18:44
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	17:06
D. OrlovD · #9	0	1	-2	1	2	0	0	18:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. AskarovG · #30	24	5	19	.792	59:39

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BedardC · #98	0	2	1	0	0	0	6	17:51
T. BertuzziLW · #59	0	1	2	1	0	1	0	15:51
A. BurakovskyLW · #28	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	15:14
R. DonatoC · #8	0	1	2	5	1	1	2	16:03
A. FrondellC · #16	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	13:14
R. GreeneC · #20	1	0	2	2	2	0	0	18:09
S. LaffertyC · #24	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:44
N. LardisLW · #76	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	13:59
I. MikheyevRW · #95	0	0	2	3	0	1	0	17:51
F. NazarC · #91	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	17:51
L. SlaggertLW · #84	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:40
T. TeravainenC · #86	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	15:02

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CrevierD · #46	2	0	2	2	1	2	0	19:09
E. Del MastroD · #38	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	14:01
W. KaiserD · #44	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	21:30
K. KorchinskiD · #14	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:00
S. RinzelD · #6	1	0	2	1	1	1	0	19:00
A. VlasicD · #72	0	0	3	2	1	1	0	21:20

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KnightG · #30	17	2	15	.882	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CHI wins series 2-1

Feb 3

SJ3@

CHI6

Apr 7

CHI2@

SJ3

Apr 16

SJ2@

CHI5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJ-12556%

CHI+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 83 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat SJ 5-2. L. Crevier led the way — 2 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SJ	1	1	0	2
CHI	0	1	4	5

Period scoring

SJ won 1 · CHI won 1

CHI

Play-by-play · 253 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·19:40
Zack Ostapchuk hit Louis Crevier
·
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·19:29
Vincent Desharnais hit Alex Vlasic
·
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·19:00
Tyler Toffoli Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·18:59
Giveaway by Andre Burakovsky
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·18:36
Mario Ferraro hit Kevin Korchinski
·
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·18:20
Takeaway by Ethan Del Mastro
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·18:00
Adam Gaudette Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·17:57
Shakir Mukhamadullin shot blocked by Tyler Bertuzzi
·
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·17:48
Adam Gaudette Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·16:44
Kiefer Sherwood hit Wyatt Kaiser
·
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·16:39
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Sam Lafferty
·
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·16:39
Puck Frozen - Goalie
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·16:37
Ryan Donato Slap Shot Wide Right
·
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·16:30
Ryan Donato Tip-In Wide Right
·
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·16:16
Connor Bedard Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·15:41
Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Ryan Greene
·
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·15:41
Icing
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·15:31
Giveaway by Macklin Celebrini
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·15:07
Anton Frondell Snap Shot Wide Right
·
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·14:44
Anton Frondell faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini
·
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·14:44
Nick Lardis Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (45), Wyatt Kaiser (11)
· ·
SJ 2·CHI 5
3rd·14:39
Connor Bedard faceoff won against Zack Ostapchuk
·
SJ 2·CHI 4
3rd·14:39
Icing
SJ 2·CHI 4
3rd·14:26
Nick Lardis hit Mario Ferraro
·
SJ 2·CHI 4
3rd·14:21
Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Connor Bedard
·
SJ 2·CHI 4
3rd·14:21
Icing
SJ 2·CHI 4
3rd·14:06
Adam Gaudette Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
SJ 2·CHI 4
3rd·13:47
Igor Chernyshov shot blocked by Louis Crevier
·
SJ 2·CHI 4

Betting line

SJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ -125/CHI +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hicago Blackhawks held off San Jose Sharks, 5–2.

CHI +1.5 cashed (SJ lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.9%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
48.9%
P(CHI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
48.9%
P(CHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
48.9%
P(CHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at CHI?: The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

San Jose SharksChicago Blackhawks

Elsewhere in the NHL