Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at FLA?

The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+7FLA

DET

41-31-10

FLA

40-38-4

NHLWed, Apr 15FinalSeriesFLA wins series 3-1VegasDET -175

DET · top performer

Justin Faulk

D · #72

1Points

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

Luke Kunin

C · #71

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Brandsegg-NygardRW · #28	0	0	-1	3	3	0	0	16:22
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	0	-2	1	0	1	2	16:06
A. CoppC · #18	0	0	-2	2	0	2	0	15:13
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	18:38
E. FinnieC · #58	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:45
P. KaneRW · #88	0	0	-3	2	0	0	0	18:09
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	-2	2	2	1	0	18:41
C. MazurLW · #34	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	13:11
D. PerronLW · #57	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	17:01
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	0	-2	4	0	0	0	15:57
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	-3	1	0	0	0	17:14

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	1	-1	1	0	1	0	19:08
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	0	-3	1	2	1	0	14:29
J. FaulkD · #72	1	0	-1	2	0	0	0	19:58
T. HamonicD · #52	0	0	-1	2	5	0	0	16:58
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	14:50
A. Sandin-PellikkaD · #44	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	15:06
M. SeiderD · #53	0	0	-4	3	0	1	0	16:51

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GibsonG · #36	15	4	11	.733	31:54
C. TalbotG · #39	13	4	9	.692	28:06

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	14:55
N. FooteLW · #25	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:15
A.J. GreerLW · #10	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	14:52
N. GregorLW · #18	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	13:43
V. HinostrozaC · #24	1	0	2	2	0	1	2	13:38
L. KuninC · #71	2	1	2	5	2	2	0	18:32
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	13:00
C. ReinhardtLW · #29	1	1	2	3	2	0	2	16:10
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	14:03
C. SchwindtRW · #79	1	0	2	2	1	1	0	14:50
W. SkoogC · #32	0	2	2	2	0	2	0	14:00
M. TkachukLW · #19	0	2	1	0	0	0	2	13:19

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AlscherD · #4	0	2	1	2	0	3	0	20:33
M. BenningD · #20	2	0	2	2	0	3	0	21:34
T. BjornfotD · #22	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	20:17
M. HovorkaD · #96	0	1	2	3	0	1	0	19:08
L. JanssonD · #54	0	1	2	0	0	2	0	18:08
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	1	3	1	0	1	0	20:03

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. TarasovG · #40	26	1	25	.962	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

FLA wins series 3-1

Oct 15

FLA1@

DET4

Mar 7

FLA3@

DET1

Mar 10

DET3@

FLA4

Apr 15

DET1@

FLA8today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DET-17564%

FLA+14541%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 101 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat DET 8-1. L. Kunin led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DET	0	1	0	1
FLA	1	4	3	8

Period scoring

DET won 0 · FLA won 3

DET

FLA

Play-by-play · 254 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DET 1·FLA 8
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DET 1·FLA 8
3rd·19:35
Travis Hamonic Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
DET 1·FLA 8
3rd·19:31
Travis Hamonic shot blocked by Wilmer Skoog
·
DET 1·FLA 8
3rd·19:30
James van Riemsdyk faceoff won against Luke Kunin
·
DET 1·FLA 8
3rd·19:30
Goalie Stopped
DET 1·FLA 8
3rd·19:29
Travis Hamonic Slap Shot Wide Right
·
DET 1·FLA 8
3rd·18:46
Michael Brandsegg-Nygård hit Marek Alscher
·
DET 1·FLA 8
3rd·18:12
Eetu Luostarinen faceoff won against Emmitt Finnie
·
DET 1·FLA 8
3rd·18:12
Luke Kunin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Reinhardt (6)
·
DET 1·FLA 8
3rd·18:06
Cole Reinhardt Backhand saved by Cam Talbot
·
DET 1·FLA 7
3rd·17:52
Giveaway by Andrew Copp
DET 1·FLA 7
3rd·17:51
A.J. Greer hit Albert Johansson
·
DET 1·FLA 7
3rd·17:45
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Luke Kunin
·
DET 1·FLA 7
3rd·17:45
Goalie Stopped
DET 1·FLA 7
3rd·17:43
Wilmer Skoog Wrist Shot saved by Cam Talbot
·
DET 1·FLA 7
3rd·17:20
Tobias Bjornfot Slap Shot High and Wide Right
·
DET 1·FLA 7
3rd·16:40
Giveaway by Justin Faulk
DET 1·FLA 7
3rd·15:48
Mikulas Hovorka shot blocked by Simon Edvinsson
·
DET 1·FLA 7
3rd·15:04
Marco Kasper hit Tobias Bjornfot
·
DET 1·FLA 7
3rd·15:00
Giveaway by Patrick Kane
DET 1·FLA 7
3rd·14:53
Cole Reinhardt shot blocked by Marco Kasper
·
DET 1·FLA 7
3rd·14:08
Vinnie Hinostroza Snap Shot High and Wide Right
·
DET 1·FLA 7
3rd·13:57
J.T. Compher Snap Shot Wide Right
·
DET 1·FLA 7
3rd·13:56
Michael Brandsegg-Nygård Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
DET 1·FLA 7
3rd·13:18
Patrick Kane Deflected Wide Right
·
DET 1·FLA 7
3rd·12:14
Takeaway by Cole Reinhardt
DET 1·FLA 7
3rd·11:45
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Luke Kunin
·
DET 1·FLA 7
3rd·11:45
TV Timeout
DET 1·FLA 7
3rd·11:45
Vinnie Hinostroza Slashing against Albert Johansson
·
DET 1·FLA 7

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 6.5·DET -175/FLA +145

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers held off Detroit Red Wings, 8–1.

FLA +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.4%

ensemble · FLA favored

Elo Static
56.4%
P(FLA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.4%
P(FLA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
56.4%
P(FLA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at FLA?: The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Detroit Red WingsFlorida Panthers

Elsewhere in the NHL