Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at VGK?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3VGK

SEA

34-36-11

VGK

39-26-17

NHLWed, Apr 15FinalSeriesSEA wins series 3-1VegasVGK -325

SEA · top performer

Shane Wright

C · #51

1Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Reilly Smith

RW · #19

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	15:27
B. CattonC · #27	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	15:15
J. EberleRW · #7	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	15:01
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	14:37
K. KakkoRW · #84	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	14:02
B. McMannC · #74	0	0	-1	3	1	1	0	14:41
B. MeyersC · #59	0	0	-1	0	0	0	2	11:49
J. NymanRW · #38	0	1	-1	1	1	1	0	12:35
C. StephensonC · #9	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	18:17
E. TolvanenRW · #20	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	16:57
R. WintertonC · #26	0	0	-1	4	2	1	0	12:57
S. WrightC · #51	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	13:24

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	0	-1	4	0	1	0	19:41
R. EvansD · #41	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	18:31
A. LarssonD · #6	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	22:12
J. MahuraD · #28	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	20:43
B. MontourD · #62	0	0	-1	3	5	1	0	21:19
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	1	-1	2	2	1	2	18:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. KokkoG · #39	26	4	22	.846	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:12
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	20:07
N. DowdC · #26	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	12:01
J. EichelC · #9	0	2	3	4	0	0	0	19:45
T. HertlC · #48	0	1	0	1	2	0	0	15:25
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:06
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	12:07
M. MarnerRW · #93	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:51
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	13:41
R. SmithRW · #19	2	1	2	5	0	1	0	13:10
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	11:08
M. StoneRW · #61	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	17:41

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	21:53
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	23:21
K. KorczakD · #6	0	1	0	1	5	0	0	14:16
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	15:46
B. McNabbD · #3	0	1	2	1	0	3	0	19:02
S. TheodoreD · #27	1	0	2	2	0	1	0	18:46

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	23	1	22	.957	59:42

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

SEA wins series 3-1

Oct 12

VGK1@

SEA2

Feb 1

SEA3@

VGK2

Apr 10

VGK3@

SEA4

Apr 16

SEA1@

VGK4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SEA+26028%

VGK-32576%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 67 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat SEA 4-1. R. Smith led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SEA	0	1	0	1
VGK	0	1	3	4

Period scoring

SEA won 0 · VGK won 1

SEA

VGK

Play-by-play · 279 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SEA 1·VGK 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SEA 1·VGK 4
3rd·19:46
Kaedan Korczak Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
SEA 1·VGK 4
3rd·19:33
Giveaway by Joshua Mahura
SEA 1·VGK 4
3rd·19:33
Giveaway by Ivan Barbashev
SEA 1·VGK 4
3rd·17:32
Brandon Montour hit Nic Dowd
·
SEA 1·VGK 4
3rd·17:10
Adam Larsson hit Brett Howden
·
SEA 1·VGK 4
3rd·17:04
Bobby McMann Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
SEA 1·VGK 4
3rd·16:36
Brett Howden faceoff won against Matty Beniers
·
SEA 1·VGK 4
3rd·16:36
Reilly Smith Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaedan Korczak (13), Tomas Hertl (34)
· ·
SEA 1·VGK 4
3rd·16:34
Kaedan Korczak Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
SEA 1·VGK 3
3rd·16:33
Tomas Hertl Wrist Shot saved by Nikke Kokko
·
SEA 1·VGK 3
3rd·15:58
Ryker Evans Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
SEA 1·VGK 3
3rd·15:57
Giveaway by Kaedan Korczak
SEA 1·VGK 3
3rd·15:54
Kaedan Korczak hit Shane Wright
·
SEA 1·VGK 3
3rd·15:20
Giveaway by Mark Stone
SEA 1·VGK 3
3rd·15:07
Jack Eichel shot blocked by Brandon Montour
·
SEA 1·VGK 3
3rd·14:13
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
SEA 1·VGK 3
3rd·14:13
Icing
SEA 1·VGK 3
3rd·13:54
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
SEA 1·VGK 3
3rd·13:54
Goalie Stopped
SEA 1·VGK 3
3rd·13:52
Josh Mahura Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
SEA 1·VGK 3
3rd·13:39
Giveaway by Jordan Eberle
SEA 1·VGK 3
3rd·13:14
Brett Howden faceoff won against Matty Beniers
·
SEA 1·VGK 3
3rd·13:14
Icing
SEA 1·VGK 3
3rd·12:48
Tomas Hertl hit Adam Larsson
·
SEA 1·VGK 3
3rd·12:44
Jeremy Lauzon hit Jani Nyman
·
SEA 1·VGK 3
3rd·12:17
Shane Wright faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
SEA 1·VGK 3
3rd·12:17
Goalie Stopped
SEA 1·VGK 3
3rd·12:13
Reilly Smith Wrist Shot saved by Nikke Kokko
· ·
SEA 1·VGK 3

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·SEA +260/VGK -325

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off Seattle Kraken, 4–1.

VGK -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.2%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
62.2%
P(VGK win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.2%
P(VGK win)
14%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.2%
P(VGK win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+260

Close price

+260

Open no-vig

26.6%

Close no-vig

26.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at VGK?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Seattle KrakenVegas Golden Knights

Elsewhere in the NHL