NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3MTL

MTL

48-23-10

NYI

43-33-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Apr 12FinalSeriesMTL wins series 2-1VegasNYI -125

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into New York Islanders and beat them, 4–1.

MTL +1.5 cashed (NYI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

Zack Bolduc

RW · #76

2Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Casey Cizikas

C · #53

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

MTL48-23-10

NYI43-33-5

MTL48-23-10NYI43-33-5

MTL

48-23-10

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

NYI

43-33-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

MTL wins series 2-1

Feb 27

NYI4@

MTL3

Mar 21

NYI3@

MTL7

Apr 12

MTL4@

NYI1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL+10549%

NYI-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat NYI 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	0	3	1	4
NYI	0	0	1	1

Period scoring

MTL won 1 · NYI won 0

MTL

NYI

Play-by-play · 281 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 4·NYI 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 4·NYI 1
3rd·19:45
Alex Newhook faceoff won against Casey Cizikas
·
MTL 4·NYI 1
3rd·19:45
Zachary Bolduc Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (12), Kirby Dach (7)
· ·
MTL 4·NYI 1
3rd·19:43
Zachary Bolduc Tip-In Hit Left Post
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·19:38
Lane Hutson shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·19:35
Alex Newhook faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·19:35
Puck in Benches
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·19:31
Takeaway by Juraj Slafkovský
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·19:08
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·19:08
Goalie Stopped
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·19:07
Calum Ritchie Backhand saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·19:05
Mathew Barzal Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·18:38
Matthew Schaefer Snap Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·18:30
Phillip Danault shot blocked by Mathew Barzal
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·18:05
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·18:05
Timeout - Home
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·18:05
Puck in Netting
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·18:01
Bo Horvat Tip-In Above Crossbar
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·17:53
Giveaway by Phillip Danault
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·17:48
Mathew Barzal Snap Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·17:18
Jake Evans Snap Shot Wide Right
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·16:54
Jake Evans faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·16:54
Icing
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·16:47
Mathew Barzal shot blocked by Jayden Struble
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·15:43
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·15:43
Icing
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·15:24
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Alex Newhook
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·15:24
Puck in Netting
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·15:23
Kirby Dach shot blocked by Tony DeAngelo
·
MTL 3·NYI 1

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL +105/NYI -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Lane HutsonMTL · D
DIST MI71.899+
Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
BURSTS26999+
Ryan PulockNYI · D
SHOT MPH103.099+
Josh AndersonMTL · RW
BURSTS7699+
Mike MathesonMTL · D
DIST MI62.999

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

NYI vs MTL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 120 high confidence

Shots on goal

Bo HorvatNYI
2.9± 0.9high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high
Kyle PalmieriNYI
2.7± 1.6high

Goals

Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex NewhookMTL
0.4± 0.7high
Ivan DemidovMTL
0.3± 0.5high

Points

Cole CaufieldMTL
0.9± 0.7high
Lane HutsonMTL
0.9± 0.7high
Nick SuzukiMTL
0.9± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands