Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at NYI?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3MTL

MTL

48-23-10

NYI

43-33-5

NHLSun, Apr 12FinalSeriesMTL wins series 2-1VegasNYI -125

MTL · top performer

Nick Suzuki

C · #14

2Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Casey Cizikas

C · #53

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	15:41
Z. BolducRW · #76	1	1	1	1	5	1	0	14:15
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:12
K. DachC · #77	0	1	0	1	1	2	0	11:59
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	17:43
I. DemidovRW · #93	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:45
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	17:03
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	10:31
A. NewhookC · #15	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	13:16
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	18:53
N. SuzukiC · #14	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	18:29
A. TexierLW · #85	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	9:27

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	26:05
L. HutsonD · #48	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	22:51
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	26:16
D. ReinbacherD · #64	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	11:17
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	18:43
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	1	0	4	0	4	12:41

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FowlerG · #32	33	1	32	.970	59:53

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	0	-1	4	0	1	0	22:40
C. CizikasC · #53	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:24
A. DuclairLW · #11	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	11:46
M. GatcombC · #16	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:57
E. HeinemanLW · #51	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	13:03
S. HolmstromRW · #92	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	16:08
B. HorvatC · #14	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	20:43
A. LeeLW · #27	0	0	-1	3	2	1	0	16:06
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	8:45
J. PageauC · #44	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:30
C. RitchieC · #64	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	19:11
B. SchennC · #10	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	20:38

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. DeAngeloD · #77	0	0	-1	3	1	2	0	22:44
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	12:34
A. PelechD · #3	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	19:30
R. PulockD · #6	0	1	0	2	1	1	0	17:15
M. SchaeferD · #48	0	0	-2	4	0	2	2	28:01
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	12:40

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SorokinG · #30	22	4	18	.818	56:57

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

MTL wins series 2-1

Feb 27

NYI4@

MTL3

Mar 21

NYI3@

MTL7

Apr 12

MTL4@

NYI1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL+10549%

NYI-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 55 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat NYI 4-1. N. Suzuki led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	0	3	1	4
NYI	0	0	1	1

Period scoring

MTL won 1 · NYI won 0

MTL

NYI

Play-by-play · 281 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 4·NYI 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 4·NYI 1
3rd·19:45
Alex Newhook faceoff won against Casey Cizikas
·
MTL 4·NYI 1
3rd·19:45
Zachary Bolduc Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (12), Kirby Dach (7)
· ·
MTL 4·NYI 1
3rd·19:43
Zachary Bolduc Tip-In Hit Left Post
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·19:38
Lane Hutson shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·19:35
Alex Newhook faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·19:35
Puck in Benches
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·19:31
Takeaway by Juraj Slafkovský
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·19:08
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·19:08
Goalie Stopped
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·19:07
Calum Ritchie Backhand saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·19:05
Mathew Barzal Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·18:38
Matthew Schaefer Snap Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·18:30
Phillip Danault shot blocked by Mathew Barzal
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·18:05
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·18:05
Timeout - Home
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·18:05
Puck in Netting
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·18:01
Bo Horvat Tip-In Above Crossbar
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·17:53
Giveaway by Phillip Danault
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·17:48
Mathew Barzal Snap Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·17:18
Jake Evans Snap Shot Wide Right
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·16:54
Jake Evans faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·16:54
Icing
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·16:47
Mathew Barzal shot blocked by Jayden Struble
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·15:43
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·15:43
Icing
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·15:24
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Alex Newhook
·
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·15:24
Puck in Netting
MTL 3·NYI 1
3rd·15:23
Kirby Dach shot blocked by Tony DeAngelo
·
MTL 3·NYI 1

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL +105/NYI -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into New York Islanders and beat them, 4–1.

MTL +1.5 cashed (NYI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Brayden Schenn · NYI20:480.6965.3%73.1%20:48 TOI · 0.69 iXG · 65.3% CF · 73.1% xGF
Nick Suzuki · MTL18:480.6251.4%58.3%18:48 TOI · 0.62 iXG · 51.4% CF · 58.3% xGF
Simon Holmstrom · NYI16:120.5062.5%59.5%16:12 TOI · 0.50 iXG · 62.5% CF · 59.5% xGF
#848422119:360.4960.5%67.8%19:36 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 60.5% CF · 67.8% xGF
Anders Lee · NYI16:000.3870.3%72.6%16:00 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 70.3% CF · 72.6% xGF
Anthony Duclair · NYI11:480.3646.7%61.6%11:48 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 46.7% CF · 61.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jacob Fowler · MTL32–1.970+2.0332–1 · .970 SV% · +2.03 GSAx
Ilya Sorokin · NYI18–4.818-1.1318–4 · .818 SV% · -1.13 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.2%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
51.2%
P(NYI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.2%
P(NYI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.2%
P(NYI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at NYI?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Montreal CanadiensNew York Islanders

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