NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3WSH

PIT

41-24-16

WSH

42-30-9

NHLSun, Apr 12FinalSeriesWSH wins series 2-1VegasWSH -148

PIT · top performer

Tommy Novak

C · #18

0Points

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

Connor McMichael

C · #24

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrazeauRW · #16	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	13:24
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	0	0	-2	3	0	1	0	17:00
S. CrosbyC · #87	0	0	-2	2	2	0	2	19:56
K. HayesRW · #13	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:55
V. KoivunenRW · #41	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:39
J. KoppanenLW · #15	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:07
E. MalkinC · #71	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	18:22
R. McGroartyRW · #2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:55
T. NovakC · #18	0	0	-1	4	0	1	0	16:29
R. RakellRW · #67	0	0	-2	2	0	2	0	18:47
B. RustRW · #17	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	20:21
E. SoderblomLW · #25	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	13:22

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. GirardD · #49	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	17:00
E. KarlssonD · #65	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	19:56
K. LetangD · #58	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	17:39
I. SolovyovD · #7	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	19:45
J. St. IvanyD · #3	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	21:22
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	19:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. SkinnerG · #74	26	2	24	.923	59:09

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	15:27
P. DuboisLW · #80	0	1	3	2	0	1	0	16:18
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	9:57
R. LeonardRW · #9	0	1	2	2	1	1	0	15:40
C. McMichaelC · #24	2	1	3	2	0	0	0	15:31
I. MiroshnichenkoLW · #63	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	7:35
A. OvechkinLW · #8	0	1	1	3	5	1	0	16:11
A. ProtasC · #21	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	19:18
I. ProtasLW · #62	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:45
J. SourdifRW · #34	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:06
D. StromeC · #17	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	14:32
T. WilsonRW · #43	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	18:14

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChychrunD · #6	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	22:21
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	2	1	0	1	0	4	18:50
C. HutsonD · #44	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	17:19
T. LiljegrenD · #27	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	21:16
M. RoyD · #3	0	0	2	0	1	2	0	19:41
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	1	0	1	5	0	1	0	18:59

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThompsonG · #48	24	0	24	1.000	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

WSH wins series 2-1

Nov 7

WSH3@

PIT5

Apr 11

WSH6@

PIT3

Apr 12

PIT0@

WSH3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PIT+12445%

WSH-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 79 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat PIT 3-0. C. McMichael led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PIT	0	0	0	0
WSH	0	1	2	3

Period scoring

PIT won 0 · WSH won 2

PIT

WSH

Play-by-play · 306 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PIT 0·WSH 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PIT 0·WSH 3
3rd·19:28
Jack St. Ivany hit Brandon Duhaime
·
PIT 0·WSH 3
3rd·19:21
Jack St. Ivany shot blocked by Brandon Duhaime
·
PIT 0·WSH 3
3rd·19:00
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Justin Sourdif
·
PIT 0·WSH 3
3rd·19:00
On-Ice Official
PIT 0·WSH 3
3rd·18:58
Elmer Soderblom hit Dylan Strome
·
PIT 0·WSH 3
3rd·18:23
Joona Koppanen faceoff won against Ilya Protas
· ·
PIT 0·WSH 3
3rd·18:23
Puck in Netting
PIT 0·WSH 3
3rd·18:22
Elmer Soderblom shot blocked by Cole Hutson
·
PIT 0·WSH 3
3rd·17:16
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Kevin Hayes
·
PIT 0·WSH 3
3rd·17:16
Connor McMichael Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (31), Martin Fehervary (22)
· ·
PIT 0·WSH 3
3rd·16:52
Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Aliaksei Protas
· ·
PIT 0·WSH 2
3rd·16:38
Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Pierre-Luc Dubois
·
PIT 0·WSH 2
3rd·16:34
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois
·
PIT 0·WSH 2
3rd·16:34
Icing
PIT 0·WSH 2
3rd·16:06
Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
PIT 0·WSH 2
3rd·16:06
Puck Frozen - Goalie
PIT 0·WSH 2
3rd·15:50
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Joona Koppanen
·
PIT 0·WSH 2
3rd·15:50
Connor McMichael Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Ryan Leonard (25), Martin Fehervary (21)
· ·
PIT 0·WSH 2
3rd·15:28
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Justin Sourdif
·
PIT 0·WSH 1
3rd·15:28
Icing
PIT 0·WSH 1
3rd·15:19
Jack St. Ivany Snap Shot Wide Right
·
PIT 0·WSH 1
3rd·14:40
Justin Brazeau shot blocked by Elmer Soderblom
·
PIT 0·WSH 1
3rd·14:26
Justin Brazeau shot blocked by Timothy Liljegren
·
PIT 0·WSH 1
3rd·13:57
Takeaway by Tom Wilson
PIT 0·WSH 1
3rd·13:48
Erik Karlsson Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
PIT 0·WSH 1
3rd·13:46
Rickard Rakell Backhand Wide Right
·
PIT 0·WSH 1
3rd·13:44
Rickard Rakell shot blocked by Erik Karlsson
·
PIT 0·WSH 1
3rd·13:03
Ilya Protas faceoff won against Rickard Rakell
· ·
PIT 0·WSH 1

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +124/WSH -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals held off Pittsburgh Penguins, 3–0.

WSH -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Sidney Crosby · PIT20:060.7476.7%81.2%20:06 TOI · 0.74 iXG · 76.7% CF · 81.2% xGF
Justin Brazeau · PIT13:240.6669.6%68.6%13:24 TOI · 0.66 iXG · 69.6% CF · 68.6% xGF
Tommy Novak · PIT16:300.5342.5%50.3%16:30 TOI · 0.53 iXG · 42.5% CF · 50.3% xGF
Connor McMichael · STL15:420.5060.0%44.6%15:42 TOI · 0.50 iXG · 60.0% CF · 44.6% xGF
Trevor van Riemsdyk · WSH19:060.4651.2%46.2%19:06 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 51.2% CF · 46.2% xGF
Aliaksei Protas · WSH19:300.4537.0%32.8%19:30 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 37.0% CF · 32.8% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Logan Thompson · WSH24–01.000+3.0724–0 · 1.000 SV% · +3.07 GSAx
Stuart Skinner · PIT24–2.923+1.1224–2 · .923 SV% · +1.12 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.3%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
56.3%
P(WSH win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.3%
P(WSH win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
56.3%
P(WSH win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

Pittsburgh PenguinsWashington Capitals

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