Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VAN at ANA?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1VAN

VAN

24-48-8

ANA

42-32-6

NHLSun, Apr 12FinalSeriesVAN wins series 3-1VegasANA -325

VAN · top performer

Brock Boeser

RW · #6

2Points

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

Cutter Gauthier

LW · #61

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	14:43
B. BoeserRW · #6	1	1	-1	3	1	0	0	23:08
J. DeBruskLW · #74	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	19:23
C. DouglasC · #42	1	0	1	1	2	0	5	6:19
N. HoglanderLW · #21	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:55
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	15:57
T. MuellerC · #39	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	10:26
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	16:27
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	18:47
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	21:07
A. RatyC · #54	0	1	-1	3	0	1	0	10:05
M. RossiC · #93	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	18:49

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	0	1	-1	3	0	3	0	18:16
F. HronekD · #17	0	1	-2	5	0	0	0	27:42
K. KudryavtsevD · #59	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	14:17
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	23:36
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	0	2	0	5	1	0	16:07
T. WillanderD · #5	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	22:03

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. TolopiloG · #60	27	3	24	.889	64:50

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	17:58
C. GauthierLW · #61	2	0	0	4	2	0	0	13:47
M. GranlundC · #64	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	23:13
A. KillornLW · #17	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	19:49
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	2	2	1	1	0	2	15:33
M. McTavishC · #23	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	12:18
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	13:25
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	0	-1	3	1	0	2	21:02
T. TerryRW · #19	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	18:51
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	-1	2	2	0	5	11:12
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	11:37

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	26:31
R. GudasD · #7	0	0	-1	0	4	0	5	10:05
T. HindsD · #60	0	0	-1	0	1	3	2	11:36
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	1	2	2	1	2	0	26:06
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	20:52
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	9:00
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	28:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	26	4	22	.846	64:50

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VAN

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

Shots

66.7

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

VAN wins series 3-1

Nov 27

VAN5@

ANA4

Jan 30

ANA0@

VAN2

Mar 25

ANA5@

VAN3

Apr 13

VAN4@

ANA3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VAN+26028%

ANA-32576%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 57 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VAN beat ANA 4-3. B. Boeser led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
VAN	2	0	1	1	4
ANA	1	0	2	0	3

Period scoring

VAN won 2 · ANA won 1

VAN

ANA

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period

event

player

OT·4:50
Game End
VAN 4·ANA 3
OT·4:50
End of OT
VAN 4·ANA 3
OT·4:50
Marco Rossi Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Zeev Buium (20), Brock Boeser (25)
· ·
VAN 4·ANA 3
OT·4:41
Zeev Buium Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
VAN 3·ANA 3
OT·4:39
Radko Gudas hit Liam Ohgren
·
VAN 3·ANA 3
OT·4:22
Brock Boeser Slap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
VAN 3·ANA 3
OT·4:13
Marco Rossi Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
VAN 3·ANA 3
OT·3:45
Brock Boeser Slap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
VAN 3·ANA 3
OT·3:35
Brock Boeser shot blocked by Ryan Poehling
·
VAN 3·ANA 3
OT·3:13
Elias Pettersson Tip-In saved by Lukas Dostal
· ·
VAN 3·ANA 3
OT·2:53
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
VAN 3·ANA 3
OT·2:53
Timeout - Visitor
VAN 3·ANA 3
OT·2:53
Chris Kreider Slashing against Drew O'Connor
·
VAN 3·ANA 3
OT·2:48
Takeaway by Drew O'Connor
VAN 3·ANA 3
OT·2:41
Filip Hronek Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
VAN 3·ANA 3
OT·1:32
Cutter Gauthier Snap Shot Wide Left
·
VAN 3·ANA 3
OT·0:54
Tom Willander hit Troy Terry
·
VAN 3·ANA 3
OT·0:50
Troy Terry Wrist Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
VAN 3·ANA 3
OT·0:27
Troy Terry shot blocked by Tom Willander
·
VAN 3·ANA 3
OT·0:00
Elias Pettersson faceoff won against Leo Carlsson
· ·
VAN 3·ANA 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
VAN 3·ANA 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VAN 3·ANA 3
3rd·19:56
Zeev Buium shot blocked by Jackson LaCombe
·
VAN 3·ANA 3
3rd·19:54
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Leo Carlsson
·
VAN 3·ANA 3
3rd·19:54
Icing
VAN 3·ANA 3
3rd·19:48
Giveaway by Filip Hronek
VAN 3·ANA 3
3rd·19:41
Teddy Blueger Tip-In Wide Left
·
VAN 3·ANA 3
3rd·19:02
Marcus Pettersson shot blocked by Jacob Trouba
· ·
VAN 3·ANA 3
3rd·18:33
Takeaway by John Carlson
VAN 3·ANA 3
3rd·18:25
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
VAN 3·ANA 3

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 7.5·VAN +260/ANA -325

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ancouver Canucks went into Anaheim Ducks and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

VAN +1.5 cashed (ANA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

71.6%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
71.6%
P(ANA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
71.6%
P(ANA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
71.6%
P(ANA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+260

Close price

+260

Open no-vig

26.6%

Close no-vig

26.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VAN at ANA?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vancouver CanucksAnaheim Ducks

Elsewhere in the NHL