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FINAL+1NJ
OTT

OTT

43-27-11

34
NJ

NJ

42-36-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Apr 12FinalSeriesNJ wins series 2-1VegasNJ -125

Recap · NHL

ew Jersey Devils held off Ottawa Senators, 4–3 in overtime.

OTT +1.5 cashed (NJ won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

OTT · top performer

OTT
Michael Amadio

Michael Amadio

RW · #22

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

NJ
Nico Hischier

Nico Hischier

C · #13

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
3
4
OTT43-27-11NJ42-36-3
OTT

OTT

43-27-11

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NJ

NJ

42-36-3

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

8

Season series

NJ wins series 2-1

Dec 10NJNJ4@OTTOTT3
Feb 1NJNJ1@OTTOTT4
Apr 12OTTOTT3@NJNJ4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTTOTT+10549%
NJNJ-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NJ beat OTT 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
OTT03003
NJ20114

Period scoring

OTT won 1 · NJ won 3

0
2

1

3
0

2

0
1

3

0
1

OT

OTT
NJ

Play-by-play · 288 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·3:18

    Game End

    OTT 3·NJ 4

  2. OT·3:18

    End of OT

    OTT 3·NJ 4

  3. OT·3:18

    Nico Hischier Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Jack Hughes (50), Dougie Hamilton (27)

    · ·

    OTT 3·NJ 4

  4. OT·3:16

    Nico Hischier Tip-In saved by James Reimer

    ·

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  5. OT·3:09

    Nico Hischier faceoff won against Shane Pinto

    ·

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  6. OT·3:09

    Puck in Netting

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  7. OT·3:06

    Dougie Hamilton Wrist Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  8. OT·2:42

    Dougie Hamilton Snap Shot saved by James Reimer

    ·

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  9. OT·2:27

    Jack Hughes Backhand Wide Left

    ·

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  10. OT·2:26

    Jesper Bratt Backhand saved by James Reimer

    ·

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  11. OT·2:24

    Shane Pinto faceoff won against Nico Hischier

    ·

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  12. OT·2:24

    Goalie Stopped

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  13. OT·2:22

    Dougie Hamilton Wrist Shot saved by James Reimer

    ·

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  14. OT·1:48

    Nico Hischier faceoff won against Shane Pinto

    ·

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  15. OT·1:48

    Drake Batherson Slashing against Jesper Bratt

    ·

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  16. OT·1:41

    Jesper Bratt Wrist Shot saved by James Reimer

    ·

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  17. OT·1:04

    Drake Batherson faceoff won against Cody Glass

    ·

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  18. OT·1:04

    Puck in Netting

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  19. OT·0:46

    Ridly Greig Wrist Shot saved by Nico Daws

    ·

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  20. OT·0:32

    Ridly Greig faceoff won against Cody Glass

    ·

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  21. OT·0:32

    Goalie Stopped

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  22. OT·0:28

    Nico Hischier Backhand saved by James Reimer

    ·

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  23. OT·0:00

    Nico Hischier faceoff won against Ridly Greig

    ·

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  24. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  25. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  26. 3rd·19:54

    Nikolas Matinpalo shot blocked by Brenden Dillon

    ·

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  27. 3rd·19:46

    Jordan Spence Snap Shot saved by Nico Daws

    ·

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  28. 3rd·19:38

    Drake Batherson Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  29. 3rd·19:32

    Dylan Cozens Backhand saved by Nico Daws

    ·

    OTT 3·NJ 3

  30. 3rd·19:21

    Drake Batherson Slap Shot saved by Nico Daws

    ·

    OTT 3·NJ 3

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

NJ

Home

30

Shots

30

25.0

PCT

25.0

8

PIM

8

32

Faceoffs W

23

9

Blocks

7

11

Giveaways

23

8

Takeaways

2

Betting line

NJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·OTT +105/NJ -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Nikolas MatinpaloOTT · D
    SKATE MPH22.592
  • Warren FoegeleOTT · LW
    SKATE MPH22.786
  • Dylan CozensOTT · C
    SKATE MPH22.784
  • Claude GirouxOTT · RW
    SHOT MPH87.082
  • Lars EllerOTT · C
    SKATE MPH22.581

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NJ favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR