Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at NJ?

The model favors OTT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NJ

OTT

43-27-11

42-36-3

NHLSun, Apr 12FinalSeriesNJ wins series 2-1VegasNJ -125

OTT · top performer

Shane Pinto

C · #12

1Points

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

Nico Hischier

C · #13

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	16:31
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	1	-1	3	0	1	2	16:53
N. CousinsC · #21	0	1	1	1	1	0	2	13:50
D. CozensC · #24	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	17:32
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	16:01
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	16:01
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	13:58
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	-2	2	1	1	0	17:35
S. HallidayC · #83	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	12:27
K. MacDermidLW · #23	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	5:46
S. PintoC · #12	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	21:33
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	1	0	0	1	3	1	0	16:44

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CrottyD · #5	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:32
D. GilbertD · #6	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	17:46
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	-1	0	1	1	2	20:35
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	0	5	0	1	2	26:36
L. ThomsonD · #60	0	0	-2	1	2	2	0	16:06
A. ZubD · #2	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	26:28

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ReimerG · #47	30	4	26	.867	63:18

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BjugstadC · #72	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:04
J. BrattLW · #63	0	0	-1	6	0	0	0	19:34
C. BrownRW · #16	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	19:13
P. CotterLW · #47	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:23
C. GlassC · #12	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:38
B. HalonenLW · #48	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	8:11
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	12:09
N. HischierC · #13	2	1	1	5	0	0	0	22:40
J. HughesC · #86	0	2	0	3	0	0	2	25:32
M. McLaughlinC · #21	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	8:27
T. MeierRW · #28	0	1	0	3	1	0	0	16:54
D. MercerC · #91	1	1	1	5	0	0	0	18:56

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	0	0	4	4	0	20:58
D. HamiltonD · #7	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	23:59
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	16:40
S. NemecD · #17	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	24:03
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:14
T. VilenD · #38	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	12:28

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. DawsG · #50	30	3	27	.900	63:16

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NJ wins series 2-1

Dec 10

NJ4@

OTT3

Feb 1

NJ1@

OTT4

Apr 12

OTT3@

NJ4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTT+10549%

NJ-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 83 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NJ beat OTT 4-3. N. Hischier led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
OTT	0	3	0	0	3
NJ	2	0	1	1	4

Period scoring

OTT won 1 · NJ won 3

OTT

Play-by-play · 288 plays

period

event

player

OT·3:18
Game End
OTT 3·NJ 4
OT·3:18
End of OT
OTT 3·NJ 4
OT·3:18
Nico Hischier Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Jack Hughes (50), Dougie Hamilton (27)
· ·
OTT 3·NJ 4
OT·3:16
Nico Hischier Tip-In saved by James Reimer
·
OTT 3·NJ 3
OT·3:09
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Shane Pinto
·
OTT 3·NJ 3
OT·3:09
Puck in Netting
OTT 3·NJ 3
OT·3:06
Dougie Hamilton Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
OTT 3·NJ 3
OT·2:42
Dougie Hamilton Snap Shot saved by James Reimer
·
OTT 3·NJ 3
OT·2:27
Jack Hughes Backhand Wide Left
·
OTT 3·NJ 3
OT·2:26
Jesper Bratt Backhand saved by James Reimer
·
OTT 3·NJ 3
OT·2:24
Shane Pinto faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
OTT 3·NJ 3
OT·2:24
Goalie Stopped
OTT 3·NJ 3
OT·2:22
Dougie Hamilton Wrist Shot saved by James Reimer
·
OTT 3·NJ 3
OT·1:48
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Shane Pinto
·
OTT 3·NJ 3
OT·1:48
Drake Batherson Slashing against Jesper Bratt
·
OTT 3·NJ 3
OT·1:41
Jesper Bratt Wrist Shot saved by James Reimer
·
OTT 3·NJ 3
OT·1:04
Drake Batherson faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
OTT 3·NJ 3
OT·1:04
Puck in Netting
OTT 3·NJ 3
OT·0:46
Ridly Greig Wrist Shot saved by Nico Daws
·
OTT 3·NJ 3
OT·0:32
Ridly Greig faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
OTT 3·NJ 3
OT·0:32
Goalie Stopped
OTT 3·NJ 3
OT·0:28
Nico Hischier Backhand saved by James Reimer
·
OTT 3·NJ 3
OT·0:00
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
OTT 3·NJ 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
OTT 3·NJ 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
OTT 3·NJ 3
3rd·19:54
Nikolas Matinpalo shot blocked by Brenden Dillon
·
OTT 3·NJ 3
3rd·19:46
Jordan Spence Snap Shot saved by Nico Daws
·
OTT 3·NJ 3
3rd·19:38
Drake Batherson Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
OTT 3·NJ 3
3rd·19:32
Dylan Cozens Backhand saved by Nico Daws
·
OTT 3·NJ 3
3rd·19:21
Drake Batherson Slap Shot saved by Nico Daws
·
OTT 3·NJ 3

Betting line

NJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·OTT +105/NJ -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew Jersey Devils held off Ottawa Senators, 4–3 in overtime.

OTT +1.5 cashed (NJ won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Nico Hischier · NJD24:480.8170.6%65.4%24:48 TOI · 0.81 iXG · 70.6% CF · 65.4% xGF
Jesper Bratt · NJD20:060.7480.6%83.7%20:06 TOI · 0.74 iXG · 80.6% CF · 83.7% xGF
Jack Hughes · NJD26:240.6566.7%68.2%26:24 TOI · 0.65 iXG · 66.7% CF · 68.2% xGF
Dawson Mercer · NJD20:480.6151.2%35.3%20:48 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 51.2% CF · 35.3% xGF
Drake Batherson · OTT17:420.5960.0%69.4%17:42 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 60.0% CF · 69.4% xGF
Dylan Cozens · OTT17:360.5354.3%63.4%17:36 TOI · 0.53 iXG · 54.3% CF · 63.4% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

#848207627–3.900+0.3827–3 · .900 SV% · +0.38 GSAx
James Reimer · OTT26–4.867-0.2526–4 · .867 SV% · -0.25 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.6%

ensemble · NJ favored

Elo Static
51.6%
P(NJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.6%
P(NJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.6%
P(NJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at NJ?: The model favors OTT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Ottawa SenatorsNew Jersey Devils

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