Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at CBJ?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BOS

BOS

44-27-10

CBJ

40-29-12

NHLSun, Apr 12FinalSeriesBOS wins series 3-0VegasCBJ -205

BOS · top performer

Sean Kuraly

C · #52

3Points

—

SOG

CBJ · top performer

Adam Fantilli

C · #19

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. EyssimontC · #81	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	10:35
M. GeekieC · #39	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	16:49
J. HagensC · #44	0	1	1	1	0	0	2	13:08
M. KastelicC · #47	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	15:12
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:38
S. KuralyC · #52	1	2	3	2	3	1	0	14:54
E. LindholmC · #28	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	16:51
F. MintenC · #93	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:53
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	14:19
D. PastrnakRW · #88	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	16:45
L. ReichelLW · #75	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:19
A. SteevesC · #21	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	11:13

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	17:21
J. HarrisD · #43	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	18:45
H. JokiharjuD · #20	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	19:57
M. LohreiD · #6	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	19:19
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	21:35
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	23:27

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. KorpisaloG · #70	35	2	33	.943	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	17:36
A. FantilliC · #19	1	0	-1	4	1	0	0	22:10
C. GarlandRW · #83	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	10:05
D. HeinenLW · #43	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	13:47
B. JennerC · #38	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	15:00
K. JohnsonC · #91	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:57
I. LundestromC · #21	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	12:36
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	0	0	-1	3	5	0	0	22:28
M. MarchmentLW · #17	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	22:36
S. MonahanC · #23	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	14:57
C. SillingerC · #4	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	11:58
M. WoodLW · #11	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	10:20

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. FabbroD · #15	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	17:46
E. GudbransonD · #44	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	14:49
D. MateychukD · #5	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	18:34
I. ProvorovD · #9	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	26:56
Z. WerenskiD · #8	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	30:27
E. ZamulaD · #6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4:20

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GreavesG · #73	22	3	19	.864	58:38

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

CBJ

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BOS wins series 3-0

Feb 27

CBJ2@

BOS4

Mar 29

BOS4@

CBJ3

Apr 12

BOS3@

CBJ2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CBJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+17037%

CBJ-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 98 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat CBJ 3-2. S. Kuraly led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
BOS	1	1	1	3
CBJ	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · CBJ won 0

BOS

CBJ

Play-by-play · 293 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·19:41
Mark Kastelic faceoff won against Sean Monahan
·
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·19:41
Puck in Netting
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·19:39
Adam Fantilli Snap Shot Wide Left
·
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·19:35
Kirill Marchenko Snap Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·19:34
Giveaway by Morgan Geekie
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·19:24
Kirill Marchenko Slap Shot Short
·
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·19:18
Charlie Coyle Tip-In Wide Right
·
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·19:03
Zach Werenski shot blocked by Andrew Peeke
·
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·18:55
David Pastrnak shot blocked by Charlie Coyle
·
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·18:38
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Sean Monahan
·
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·18:38
Puck in Benches
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·18:34
Giveaway by Kirill Marchenko
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·18:02
Morgan Geekie Tip-In High and Wide Right
·
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·17:22
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Boone Jenner
·
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·17:22
Puck Frozen - Skater
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·17:10
Giveaway by Jonathan Aspirot
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·16:42
Nikita Zadorov hit Kirill Marchenko
·
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·16:29
Sean Kuraly Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·16:16
Adam Fantilli faceoff won against Sean Kuraly
·
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·16:16
Goalie Stopped
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·16:14
Charlie Coyle Wrist Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·16:01
Giveaway by Ivan Provorov
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·15:40
Ivan Provorov shot blocked by Casey Mittelstadt
·
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·15:13
Adam Fantilli faceoff won against Casey Mittelstadt
·
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·15:13
Goalie Puck Frozen - played from beyond center
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·15:12
Lukas Reichel Tip-In saved by Jet Greaves
·
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·15:01
Kirill Marchenko Snap Shot Wide Left
·
BOS 3·CBJ 2
3rd·14:30
Kirill Marchenko hit Henri Jokiharju
·
BOS 3·CBJ 2

Betting line

CBJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·BOS +170/CBJ -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oston Bruins went into Columbus Blue Jackets and beat them, 3–2.

BOS +1.5 cashed (CBJ lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Cole Sillinger · CBJ12:120.8179.2%78.6%12:12 TOI · 0.81 iXG · 79.2% CF · 78.6% xGF
Charlie Coyle · CBJ17:480.7078.9%83.3%17:48 TOI · 0.70 iXG · 78.9% CF · 83.3% xGF
Michael Eyssimont · BOS10:420.6545.0%66.4%10:42 TOI · 0.65 iXG · 45.0% CF · 66.4% xGF
Kirill Marchenko · CBJ22:480.5560.5%65.4%22:48 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 60.5% CF · 65.4% xGF
Adam Fantilli · CBJ22:240.4161.9%68.4%22:24 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 61.9% CF · 68.4% xGF
Mason Marchment · CBJ24:480.3660.4%62.0%24:48 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 60.4% CF · 62.0% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Joonas Korpisalo · BOS33–2.943+0.9533–2 · .943 SV% · +0.95 GSAx
Jet Greaves · CBJ19–3.864-0.9819–3 · .864 SV% · -0.98 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.5%

ensemble · CBJ favored

Elo Static
55.5%
P(CBJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.5%
P(CBJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.5%
P(CBJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+170

Close price

+170

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at CBJ?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Boston BruinsColumbus Blue Jackets

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