Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at CGY?

The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CGY

UTA

42-32-6

CGY

33-38-9

NHLSun, Apr 12FinalSeriesCGY wins series 2-1VegasUTAH -162

UTA · top performer

Lawson Crouse

LW · #67

1Points

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

Brayden Pachal

D · #94

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:03
L. CooleyC · #92	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	16:17
L. CrouseLW · #67	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:55
D. GuentherRW · #11	0	0	-2	1	3	0	0	15:38
C. KellerRW · #9	0	1	0	2	0	2	4	19:21
A. KerfootC · #15	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:01
L. O'BrienC · #38	0	0	-1	2	4	0	0	10:29
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	14:01
N. SchmaltzC · #8	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	20:49
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	15:07
B. TanevLW · #13	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	9:07
K. YamamotoRW · #56	0	0	-2	1	3	1	0	11:21

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	20:06
S. DurziD · #50	0	0	-2	6	0	2	0	16:50
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	19:53
M. SergachevD · #98	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	22:25
D. SimashevD · #26	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	13:31
M. WeegarD · #52	0	1	0	2	2	3	0	21:23

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. VanecekG · #41	23	4	19	.826	59:46

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:42
B. ColemanLW · #20	0	1	0	3	1	1	0	20:25
M. CoronatoRW · #27	1	0	1	3	0	0	2	17:28
J. FarabeeLW · #86	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:20
M. FrostC · #16	0	1	0	5	1	0	0	16:50
T. GrossC · #39	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	9:15
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	12:13
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:45
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	13:39
R. StromeC · #22	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:08
A. SunievLW · #36	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	11:27
C. ZaryC · #47	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:45

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. BrzustewiczD · #48	0	0	1	0	0	6	0	20:07
O. MaattaD · #3	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	23:08
B. PachalD · #94	1	2	2	1	1	1	0	14:47
Z. ParekhD · #19	0	1	0	4	0	2	0	23:49
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	22:41
A. WiebeD · #52	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	7:44

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. WolfG · #32	29	1	28	.966	59:59

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CGY wins series 2-1

Oct 16

CGY1@

UTA3

Dec 7

UTA0@

CGY2

Apr 13

UTA1@

CGY4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTA-16262%

CGY+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 71 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat UTA 4-1. B. Pachal led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 1 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
UTA	0	0	1	1
CGY	2	0	2	4

Period scoring

UTA won 0 · CGY won 2

UTA

CGY

Play-by-play · 302 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·19:28
Ryan Strome faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·19:28
Puck in Netting
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·19:03
Dylan Guenther hit Zach Whitecloud
·
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·18:35
Logan Cooley faceoff won against Tyson Gross
·
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·18:35
Icing
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·18:18
Nate Schmidt shot blocked by Olli Maatta
·
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·18:09
Takeaway by Nick Schmaltz
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·18:04
Clayton Keller Tip-In saved by Dustin Wolf
·
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·17:55
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz
·
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·17:55
Goalie Stopped
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·17:53
Logan Cooley Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·17:51
Takeaway by Kailer Yamamoto
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·17:24
Michael Carcone shot blocked by Zach Whitecloud
·
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·17:22
Giveaway by Zach Whitecloud
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·17:06
Morgan Frost Wrist Shot saved by Vitek Vanecek
·
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·16:46
Alexander Kerfoot faceoff won against Morgan Frost
·
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·16:46
Off-side
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·16:29
Adam Klapka hit Kevin Stenlund
·
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·16:24
Liam O'Brien Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·16:02
Tyson Gross faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·16:02
Goalie Stopped
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·16:00
Sean Durzi Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·15:29
Mikael Backlund shot blocked by MacKenzie Weegar
·
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·15:10
Giveaway by Olli Määttä
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·15:06
Aydar Suniev Wrist Shot Off Crossbar
·
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·14:56
Giveaway by Ryan Strome
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·14:54
Giveaway by Ian Cole
UTA 1·CGY 4
3rd·14:35
Takeaway by Dylan Guenther
UTA 1·CGY 4

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·UTA -162/CGY +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

algary Flames held off Utah Mammoth, 4–1.

CGY +1.5 cashed (UTA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.4%

ensemble · UTA favored

Elo Static
47.4%
P(CGY win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
47.4%
P(CGY win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
47.4%
P(CGY win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at CGY?: The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Utah MammothCalgary Flames

Elsewhere in the NHL