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FINAL+3CGY
UTA

UTA

42-32-6

14
CGY

CGY

33-38-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Apr 12FinalSeriesCGY wins series 2-1VegasUTAH -162

Recap · NHL

algary Flames held off Utah Mammoth, 4–1.

CGY +1.5 cashed (UTA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

UTA · top performer

UTA
Lawson Crouse

Lawson Crouse

LW · #67

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

CGY
Mikael Backlund

Mikael Backlund

C · #11

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Utah Mammoth at Calgary Flames · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
4
UTA42-32-6CGY33-38-9
UTA

UTA

42-32-6

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CGY

CGY

33-38-9

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

6

Season series

CGY wins series 2-1

Oct 16CGYCGY1@UTAUTA3
Dec 7UTAUTA0@CGYCGY2
Apr 13UTAUTA1@CGYCGY4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAUTA-16262%
CGYCGY+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat UTA 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
UTA0011
CGY2024

Period scoring

UTA won 0 · CGY won 2

0
2

1

0
0

2

1
2

3

UTA
CGY

Play-by-play · 302 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  3. 3rd·19:28

    Ryan Strome faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund

    ·

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  4. 3rd·19:28

    Puck in Netting

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  5. 3rd·19:03

    Dylan Guenther hit Zach Whitecloud

    ·

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  6. 3rd·18:35

    Logan Cooley faceoff won against Tyson Gross

    ·

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  7. 3rd·18:35

    Icing

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  8. 3rd·18:18

    Nate Schmidt shot blocked by Olli Maatta

    ·

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  9. 3rd·18:09

    Takeaway by Nick Schmaltz

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  10. 3rd·18:04

    Clayton Keller Tip-In saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  11. 3rd·17:55

    Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz

    ·

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  12. 3rd·17:55

    Goalie Stopped

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  13. 3rd·17:53

    Logan Cooley Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  14. 3rd·17:51

    Takeaway by Kailer Yamamoto

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  15. 3rd·17:24

    Michael Carcone shot blocked by Zach Whitecloud

    ·

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  16. 3rd·17:22

    Giveaway by Zach Whitecloud

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  17. 3rd·17:06

    Morgan Frost Wrist Shot saved by Vitek Vanecek

    ·

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  18. 3rd·16:46

    Alexander Kerfoot faceoff won against Morgan Frost

    ·

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  19. 3rd·16:46

    Off-side

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  20. 3rd·16:29

    Adam Klapka hit Kevin Stenlund

    ·

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  21. 3rd·16:24

    Liam O'Brien Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  22. 3rd·16:02

    Tyson Gross faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund

    ·

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  23. 3rd·16:02

    Goalie Stopped

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  24. 3rd·16:00

    Sean Durzi Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  25. 3rd·15:29

    Mikael Backlund shot blocked by MacKenzie Weegar

    ·

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  26. 3rd·15:10

    Giveaway by Olli Määttä

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  27. 3rd·15:06

    Aydar Suniev Wrist Shot Off Crossbar

    ·

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  28. 3rd·14:56

    Giveaway by Ryan Strome

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  29. 3rd·14:54

    Giveaway by Ian Cole

    UTA 1·CGY 4

  30. 3rd·14:35

    Takeaway by Dylan Guenther

    UTA 1·CGY 4

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

29

Shots

23

0.0

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

6

24

Faceoffs W

29

13

Blocks

16

22

Giveaways

18

8

Takeaways

5

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·UTA -162/CGY +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Mikael BacklundCGY · C
    SHOT MPH93.594
  • Adam KlapkaCGY · RW
    SHOT MPH92.691
  • Joel FarabeeCGY · LW
    DIST MI215.486
  • Matt CoronatoCGY · RW
    DIST MI214.185
  • Morgan FrostCGY · C
    BURSTS14285

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CGY favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR