Live · 1
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FINAL+1TB
NSH

NSH

34-31-9

23
TB

TB

46-21-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Mar 29FinalSeriesTB wins series 2-0VegasTB -185

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Nashville Predators, 3–2.

NSH +1.5 cashed (TB won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NSH · top performer

NSH
Filip Forsberg

Filip Forsberg

LW · #9

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

TB · top performer

TB
Jake Guentzel

Jake Guentzel

C · #59

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
3
NSH34-31-9TB46-21-6
NSH

NSH

34-31-9

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
TB

TB

46-21-6

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

18

Season series

TB wins series 2-0

Oct 28TBTB5@NSHNSH2
Mar 29NSHNSH2@TBTB3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NSHNSH+15439%
TBTB-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat NSH 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
NSH0112
TB0123

Period scoring

NSH won 0 · TB won 1

0
0

1

1
1

2

1
2

3

NSH
TB

Play-by-play · 303 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    NSH 2·TB 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    NSH 2·TB 3

  3. 3rd·19:54

    J.J. Moser hit Matthew Wood

    ·

    NSH 2·TB 3

  4. 3rd·19:53

    Giveaway by Matthew Wood

    NSH 2·TB 3

  5. 3rd·19:38

    Ryan O'Reilly shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh

    ·

    NSH 2·TB 3

  6. 3rd·19:37

    Filip Forsberg Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    NSH 2·TB 3

  7. 3rd·18:52

    Steven Stamkos Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    NSH 2·TB 3

  8. 3rd·18:39

    Takeaway by Brayden Point

    NSH 2·TB 3

  9. 3rd·18:31

    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Justin Barron

    ·

    NSH 2·TB 3

  10. 3rd·18:08

    Zachary L'Heureux Slap Shot saved by Jonas Johansson

    ·

    NSH 2·TB 3

  11. 3rd·17:23

    Giveaway by Erik Haula

    NSH 2·TB 3

  12. 3rd·17:19

    Roman Josi Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    NSH 2·TB 3

  13. 3rd·17:08

    Giveaway by Pontus Holmberg

    NSH 2·TB 3

  14. 3rd·17:01

    Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Erik Haula

    ·

    NSH 2·TB 3

  15. 3rd·17:01

    Goalie Stopped

    NSH 2·TB 3

  16. 3rd·16:59

    Luke Evangelista Snap Shot saved by Jonas Johansson

    ·

    NSH 2·TB 3

  17. 3rd·16:39

    Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli

    ·

    NSH 2·TB 3

  18. 3rd·16:39

    Hand Pass

    NSH 2·TB 3

  19. 3rd·16:34

    Nick Perbix Snap Shot saved by Jonas Johansson

    ·

    NSH 2·TB 3

  20. 3rd·16:31

    Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Nick Paul

    ·

    NSH 2·TB 3

  21. 3rd·16:31

    Goalie Stopped

    NSH 2·TB 3

  22. 3rd·16:30

    Justin Barron Snap Shot saved by Jonas Johansson

    ·

    NSH 2·TB 3

  23. 3rd·16:14

    Pontus Holmberg shot blocked by Justin Barron

    ·

    NSH 2·TB 3

  24. 3rd·16:11

    Zemgus Girgensons Snap Shot saved by Justus Annunen

    ·

    NSH 2·TB 3

  25. 3rd·15:59

    Yanni Gourde Wrist Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    NSH 2·TB 3

  26. 3rd·15:29

    Brady Skjei hit Yanni Gourde

    ·

    NSH 2·TB 3

  27. 3rd·15:21

    Emil Lilleberg Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    NSH 2·TB 3

  28. 3rd·15:20

    Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Erik Haula

    ·

    NSH 2·TB 3

  29. 3rd·15:20

    Icing

    NSH 2·TB 3

  30. 3rd·15:11

    Jake Guentzel Tip-In saved by Justus Annunen

    ·

    NSH 2·TB 3

Team stats

NSH

Away

Stat

TB

Home

31

Shots

28

0.0

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

18

28

Faceoffs W

24

12

Blocks

13

15

Giveaways

13

3

Takeaways

6

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·NSH +154/TB -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
    DIST MI265.898
  • Brady SkjeiNSH · D
    SKATE MPH23.497
  • Filip ForsbergNSH · LW
    DIST MI246.195
  • Roman JosiNSH · D
    DIST MI245.490
  • Adam WilsbyNSH · D
    BURSTS6889

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-185

Close price

-185

Open no-vig

62.2%

Close no-vig

62.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR