Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at TB?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TB

NSH

34-31-9

46-21-6

NHLSun, Mar 29FinalSeriesTB wins series 2-0VegasTB -185

NSH · top performer

Filip Forsberg

LW · #9

2Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Jake Guentzel

C · #59

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	0	0	-1	2	0	0	2	14:57
F. ForsbergLW · #9	1	1	2	4	1	1	0	19:37
E. HaulaLW · #56	0	0	-1	1	3	0	2	14:05
T. JostC · #17	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	16:39
J. KemellRW · #25	1	0	2	2	1	0	0	8:16
Z. L'HeureuxLW · #68	0	0	-1	4	1	0	0	14:24
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	17:16
R. O'ReillyC · #90	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	24:29
R. SchaeferLW · #49	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6:26
S. StamkosC · #91	0	0	-1	2	0	1	2	17:17
F. SvechkovC · #40	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	14:55
M. WoodRW · #71	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	13:42

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BarronD · #20	0	1	2	1	1	2	0	14:22
N. HagueD · #41	0	0	-2	3	1	1	0	17:05
R. JosiD · #59	0	0	-3	4	0	2	0	27:05
N. PerbixD · #48	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	14:48
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	0	-1	0	3	2	0	22:46
A. WilsbyD · #83	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	14:57

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AnnunenG · #29	28	3	25	.893	58:54

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:19
A. CirelliC · #71	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	20:59
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	16:08
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	17:08
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	-2	1	2	0	0	15:29
J. GuentzelC · #59	1	2	3	3	0	0	2	18:46
B. HagelLW · #38	1	0	1	5	0	1	0	22:20
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	11:54
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	11:36
C. PerryRW · #10	1	0	2	2	0	1	0	12:59
B. PointC · #21	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	18:06
S. SabourinRW · #46	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	5:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	-1	1	2	1	12	15:49
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	15:52
E. LillebergD · #78	0	1	1	1	3	2	0	17:34
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	-1	0	0	3	0	19:06
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	20:10
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	1	1	1	0	1	2	23:51

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JohanssonG · #31	31	2	29	.935	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NSH

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

TB wins series 2-0

Oct 28

TB5@

NSH2

Mar 29

NSH2@

TB3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NSH+15439%

TB-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 67 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat NSH 3-2. J. Guentzel led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NSH	0	1	1	2
TB	0	1	2	3

Period scoring

NSH won 0 · TB won 1

NSH

Play-by-play · 303 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·19:54
J.J. Moser hit Matthew Wood
·
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·19:53
Giveaway by Matthew Wood
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·19:38
Ryan O'Reilly shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
·
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·19:37
Filip Forsberg Snap Shot Wide Right
·
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·18:52
Steven Stamkos Slap Shot Wide Left
·
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·18:39
Takeaway by Brayden Point
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·18:31
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Justin Barron
·
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·18:08
Zachary L'Heureux Slap Shot saved by Jonas Johansson
·
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·17:23
Giveaway by Erik Haula
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·17:19
Roman Josi Slap Shot Wide Left
·
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·17:08
Giveaway by Pontus Holmberg
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·17:01
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Erik Haula
·
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·17:01
Goalie Stopped
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·16:59
Luke Evangelista Snap Shot saved by Jonas Johansson
·
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·16:39
Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·16:39
Hand Pass
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·16:34
Nick Perbix Snap Shot saved by Jonas Johansson
·
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·16:31
Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·16:31
Goalie Stopped
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·16:30
Justin Barron Snap Shot saved by Jonas Johansson
·
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·16:14
Pontus Holmberg shot blocked by Justin Barron
·
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·16:11
Zemgus Girgensons Snap Shot saved by Justus Annunen
·
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·15:59
Yanni Gourde Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·15:29
Brady Skjei hit Yanni Gourde
·
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·15:21
Emil Lilleberg Slap Shot Wide Left
·
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·15:20
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Erik Haula
·
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·15:20
Icing
NSH 2·TB 3
3rd·15:11
Jake Guentzel Tip-In saved by Justus Annunen
·
NSH 2·TB 3

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·NSH +154/TB -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Nashville Predators, 3–2.

NSH +1.5 cashed (TB won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Brandon Hagel · TBL22:300.9047.2%53.4%22:30 TOI · 0.90 iXG · 47.2% CF · 53.4% xGF
Brayden Point · TBL18:180.7065.8%75.0%18:18 TOI · 0.70 iXG · 65.8% CF · 75.0% xGF
Filip Forsberg · NSH19:360.5448.9%52.5%19:36 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 48.9% CF · 52.5% xGF
Jake Guentzel · TBL18:540.5461.9%70.8%18:54 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 61.9% CF · 70.8% xGF
Jonathan Marchessault · NSH17:120.4845.7%50.1%17:12 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 45.7% CF · 50.1% xGF
#848274214:300.4357.7%50.8%14:30 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 57.7% CF · 50.8% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jonas Johansson · TBL29–2.935+1.0429–2 · .935 SV% · +1.04 GSAx
Justus Annunen · NSH25–3.893+0.2025–3 · .893 SV% · +0.20 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.5%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
67.5%
P(TB win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
67.5%
P(TB win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
67.5%
P(TB win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-185

Close price

-185

Open no-vig

62.2%

Close no-vig

62.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at TB?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

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