Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at PHI?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1PHI

DAL

44-18-12

PHI

37-24-12

NHLSun, Mar 29FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasDAL -175

DAL · top performer

Arttu Hyry

RW · #25

1Points

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

Travis Konecny

RW · #11

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:12
J. BennLW · #14	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:14
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:25
M. BourqueC · #22	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	18:02
M. BuntingLW · #58	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	3:46
M. DucheneC · #95	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:20
A. ErneLW · #73	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:39
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	14:37
A. HyryRW · #25	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	12:20
W. JohnstonC · #53	0	0	-1	2	0	0	4	23:00
M. RantanenRW · #96	0	0	-1	2	2	0	2	21:24
J. RobertsonLW · #21	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	20:55

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:53
T. HarleyD · #55	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	25:09
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	24:07
E. LindellD · #23	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	23:01
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:56
T. MyersD · #57	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. DeSmithG · #1	30	2	28	.933	63:27

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	14:42
A. BumpLW · #20	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:46
N. CatesLW · #27	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	16:45
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	14:31
C. DvorakC · #22	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	19:58
L. GlendeningC · #41	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:27
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	12:18
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	0	1	10	2	0	11:41
T. KonecnyRW · #11	1	0	0	5	2	0	0	21:24
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	1	0	4	1	0	0	15:16
O. TippettRW · #74	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	18:03
T. ZegrasC · #46	1	0	1	2	1	2	2	20:17

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:12
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	22:10
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	1	0	1	1	2	0	22:12
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	-1	1	1	3	0	23:19
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	16:08
C. YorkD · #8	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	24:12

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ErssonG · #33	18	1	17	.944	63:27

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 16

PHI1@

DAL5

Mar 29

DAL1@

PHI2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-17564%

PHI+14541%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 34 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat DAL 2-1. T. Konecny led the way — 1 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
DAL	0	1	0	0	1
PHI	0	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

DAL won 0 · PHI won 1

DAL

PHI

Play-by-play · 275 plays

period

event

player

OT·3:27
Game End
DAL 1·PHI 2
OT·3:27
End of OT
DAL 1·PHI 2
OT·3:27
Trevor Zegras Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Cam York (22), Samuel Ersson (1)
· ·
DAL 1·PHI 2
OT·3:03
Trevor Zegras hit Mikko Rantanen
·
DAL 1·PHI 1
OT·2:53
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
DAL 1·PHI 1
OT·2:53
Goalie Stopped
DAL 1·PHI 1
OT·2:50
Owen Tippett Snap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith
·
DAL 1·PHI 1
OT·1:12
Christian Dvorak hit Matt Duchene
·
DAL 1·PHI 1
OT·1:07
Travis Konecny Wrist Shot saved by Casey DeSmith
·
DAL 1·PHI 1
OT·0:38
Trevor Zegras Snap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith
·
DAL 1·PHI 1
OT·0:00
Sean Couturier faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston
·
DAL 1·PHI 1
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
DAL 1·PHI 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DAL 1·PHI 1
3rd·19:45
Nick Seeler shot blocked by Arttu Hyry
·
DAL 1·PHI 1
3rd·19:40
Travis Konecny Snap Shot Short
·
DAL 1·PHI 1
3rd·19:27
Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
DAL 1·PHI 1
3rd·19:27
Puck in Crowd
DAL 1·PHI 1
3rd·19:23
Giveaway by Mavrik Bourque
DAL 1·PHI 1
3rd·19:13
Cam York hit Mavrik Bourque
·
DAL 1·PHI 1
3rd·18:46
Luke Glendening faceoff won against Justin Hryckowian
·
DAL 1·PHI 1
3rd·18:46
Puck in Crowd
DAL 1·PHI 1
3rd·18:39
Wyatt Johnston Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson
·
DAL 1·PHI 1
3rd·17:12
Sean Couturier faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston
·
DAL 1·PHI 1
3rd·17:12
Trevor Zegras Tripping against Adam Erne
·
DAL 1·PHI 1
3rd·17:12
Timeout - Visitor
DAL 1·PHI 1
3rd·17:02
Takeaway by Thomas Harley
DAL 1·PHI 1
3rd·16:36
Giveaway by Trevor Zegras
DAL 1·PHI 1
3rd·16:12
Mavrik Bourque hit Cam York
·
DAL 1·PHI 1
3rd·16:05
Trevor Zegras faceoff won against Matt Duchene
·
DAL 1·PHI 1
3rd·16:05
Puck in Crowd
DAL 1·PHI 1

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·DAL -175/PHI +145

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers held off Dallas Stars, 2–1 in overtime.

PHI +1.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Travis Konecny · PHI21:300.8368.6%74.4%21:30 TOI · 0.83 iXG · 68.6% CF · 74.4% xGF
Wyatt Johnston · DAL23:120.6356.4%55.7%23:12 TOI · 0.63 iXG · 56.4% CF · 55.7% xGF
Matt Duchene · DAL17:300.3852.0%65.8%17:30 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 52.0% CF · 65.8% xGF
Carl Grundstrom · PHI12:360.3860.0%68.3%12:36 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 60.0% CF · 68.3% xGF
Adam Erne · DAL10:360.3872.7%66.2%10:36 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 72.7% CF · 66.2% xGF
Christian Dvorak · PHI20:240.3152.9%51.5%20:24 TOI · 0.31 iXG · 52.9% CF · 51.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Casey DeSmith · DAL28–2.933+1.2328–2 · .933 SV% · +1.23 GSAx
Samuel Ersson · PHI17–1.944+0.8117–1 · .944 SV% · +0.81 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
50.2%
P(PHI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.2%
P(PHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.2%
P(PHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at PHI?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Dallas StarsPhiladelphia Flyers

Elsewhere in the NHL