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FINAL+1PHI
DAL

DAL

44-18-12

12
PHI

PHI

37-24-12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Mar 29FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasDAL -175

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers held off Dallas Stars, 2–1 in overtime.

PHI +1.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

DAL
Arttu Hyry

Arttu Hyry

RW · #25

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

PHI
Travis Konecny

Travis Konecny

RW · #11

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Dallas Stars at Philadelphia Flyers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
1
2
DAL44-18-12PHI37-24-12
DAL

DAL

44-18-12

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
PHI

PHI

37-24-12

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 16PHIPHI1@DALDAL5
Mar 29DALDAL1@PHIPHI2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DALDAL-17564%
PHIPHI+14541%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat DAL 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
DAL01001
PHI01012

Period scoring

DAL won 0 · PHI won 1

0
0

1

1
1

2

0
0

3

0
1

OT

DAL
PHI

Play-by-play · 275 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·3:27

    Game End

    DAL 1·PHI 2

  2. OT·3:27

    End of OT

    DAL 1·PHI 2

  3. OT·3:27

    Trevor Zegras Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Cam York (22), Samuel Ersson (1)

    · ·

    DAL 1·PHI 2

  4. OT·3:03

    Trevor Zegras hit Mikko Rantanen

    ·

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  5. OT·2:53

    Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  6. OT·2:53

    Goalie Stopped

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  7. OT·2:50

    Owen Tippett Snap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith

    ·

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  8. OT·1:12

    Christian Dvorak hit Matt Duchene

    ·

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  9. OT·1:07

    Travis Konecny Wrist Shot saved by Casey DeSmith

    ·

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  10. OT·0:38

    Trevor Zegras Snap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith

    ·

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  11. OT·0:00

    Sean Couturier faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston

    ·

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  12. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  13. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  14. 3rd·19:45

    Nick Seeler shot blocked by Arttu Hyry

    ·

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  15. 3rd·19:40

    Travis Konecny Snap Shot Short

    ·

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  16. 3rd·19:27

    Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  17. 3rd·19:27

    Puck in Crowd

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  18. 3rd·19:23

    Giveaway by Mavrik Bourque

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  19. 3rd·19:13

    Cam York hit Mavrik Bourque

    ·

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  20. 3rd·18:46

    Luke Glendening faceoff won against Justin Hryckowian

    ·

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  21. 3rd·18:46

    Puck in Crowd

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  22. 3rd·18:39

    Wyatt Johnston Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  23. 3rd·17:12

    Sean Couturier faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston

    ·

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  24. 3rd·17:12

    Trevor Zegras Tripping against Adam Erne

    ·

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  25. 3rd·17:12

    Timeout - Visitor

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  26. 3rd·17:02

    Takeaway by Thomas Harley

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  27. 3rd·16:36

    Giveaway by Trevor Zegras

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  28. 3rd·16:12

    Mavrik Bourque hit Cam York

    ·

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  29. 3rd·16:05

    Trevor Zegras faceoff won against Matt Duchene

    ·

    DAL 1·PHI 1

  30. 3rd·16:05

    Puck in Crowd

    DAL 1·PHI 1

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

18

Shots

30

0.0

PCT

33.3

6

PIM

4

21

Faceoffs W

27

5

Blocks

10

9

Giveaways

12

4

Takeaways

7

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·DAL -175/PHI +145

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795
  • Cam YorkPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.693
  • Christian DvorakPHI · C
    BURSTS3492
  • Luke GlendeningPHI · C
    SKATE MPH22.582

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR