Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at CBJ?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BOS

BOS

42-24-8

CBJ

38-24-12

NHLSun, Mar 29FinalSeriesBOS leads series 2-0VegasCBJ -162

BOS · top performer

Pavel Zacha

C · #18

3Points

—

SOG

CBJ · top performer

Boone Jenner

C · #38

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	0	3	1	3	1	0	0	15:14
M. GeekieC · #39	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	15:31
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	0	3	3	1	5	12:00
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	0	0	3	0	5	11:21
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	0	-1	3	1	1	0	17:03
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	0	2	4	2	0	14:41
E. LindholmC · #28	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	15:55
F. MintenC · #93	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	19:09
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:35
D. PastrnakRW · #88	0	0	-1	6	1	1	4	23:30
L. ReichelLW · #75	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	12:36
P. ZachaC · #18	2	1	1	5	1	0	0	18:07

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	17:49
H. JokiharjuD · #20	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	15:16
H. LindholmD · #27	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	23:45
C. McAvoyD · #73	1	1	1	4	0	2	2	26:09
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	17:56
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	-1	2	3	1	0	19:22

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	25	3	22	.880	63:14

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	1	0	0	1	1	3	0	18:59
A. FantilliC · #19	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	21:43
C. GarlandRW · #83	0	1	1	2	3	1	0	13:18
D. HeinenLW · #43	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	11:45
B. JennerC · #38	1	0	1	5	4	0	4	18:43
I. LundestromC · #21	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	13:28
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	0	2	1	1	1	2	0	22:31
M. MarchmentLW · #17	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	14:59
S. MonahanC · #23	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:43
M. OlivierRW · #24	0	0	0	1	2	0	5	3:06
C. SillingerC · #4	0	0	0	1	3	1	2	16:29
M. WoodLW · #11	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	12:53

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. FabbroD · #15	0	0	1	1	2	1	2	23:29
E. GudbransonD · #44	0	0	0	0	1	1	5	18:34
D. MateychukD · #5	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	15:06
I. ProvorovD · #9	0	1	0	1	1	7	2	24:50
Z. WerenskiD · #8	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	30:11
E. ZamulaD · #6	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	10:36

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GreavesG · #73	39	3	36	.923	65:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

CBJ

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BOS leads series 2-0

Feb 27

CBJ2@

BOS4

Mar 29

BOS4@

CBJ3today

Apr 12

BOS3@

CBJ2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CBJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+13642%

CBJ-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 57 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat CBJ 4-3. P. Zacha led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
BOS	0	0	3	0	1	4
CBJ	3	0	0	0	0	3

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · CBJ won 1

BOS

CBJ

Play-by-play · 349 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
BOS 2·CBJ 1
SO·0:00
End of OT
BOS 2·CBJ 1
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
BOS 2·CBJ 1
SO·0:00
Viktor Arvidsson Goal Backhand
BOS 2·CBJ 1
SO·0:00
Charlie Coyle Goal Wrist Shot
BOS 2·CBJ 1
SO·0:00
Casey Mittelstadt Backhand saved by Jet Greaves
·
BOS 2·CBJ 1
SO·0:00
Kirill Marchenko Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 2·CBJ 1
SO·0:00
Fraser Minten Goal Snap Shot
BOS 2·CBJ 1
SO·0:00
Adam Fantilli Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 2·CBJ 1
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
BOS 2·CBJ 1
OT·5:00
End of OT
BOS 3·CBJ 3
OT·4:59
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Pavel Zacha
·
BOS 3·CBJ 3
OT·4:59
Goalie Stopped
BOS 3·CBJ 3
OT·4:57
Pavel Zacha Tip-In saved by Jet Greaves
·
BOS 3·CBJ 3
OT·4:54
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Charlie Coyle
·
BOS 3·CBJ 3
OT·4:54
Goalie Stopped
BOS 3·CBJ 3
OT·4:53
David Pastrnak Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
BOS 3·CBJ 3
OT·4:31
Fraser Minten shot blocked by Adam Fantilli
·
BOS 3·CBJ 3
OT·4:21
Marat Khusnutdinov Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
BOS 3·CBJ 3
OT·4:03
Hampus Lindholm Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
· ·
BOS 3·CBJ 3
OT·4:03
Marat Khusnutdinov shot blocked by Zach Werenski
·
BOS 3·CBJ 3
OT·3:35
David Pastrnak Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
BOS 3·CBJ 3
OT·3:18
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Adam Fantilli
·
BOS 3·CBJ 3
OT·3:18
Goalie Stopped
BOS 3·CBJ 3
OT·3:16
Adam Fantilli Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 3·CBJ 3
OT·2:54
Charlie McAvoy Slap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
BOS 3·CBJ 3
OT·2:17
David Pastrnak Slap Shot Wide Right
·
BOS 3·CBJ 3
OT·2:07
Takeaway by Nikita Zadorov
BOS 3·CBJ 3
OT·2:03
Denton Mateychuk Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 3·CBJ 3
OT·1:39
Cole Sillinger Snap Shot Wide Left
·
BOS 3·CBJ 3

Betting line

CBJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·BOS +136/CBJ -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oston Bruins went into Columbus Blue Jackets and beat them, 4–3.

BOS +1.5 cashed (CBJ lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

David Pastrnak · BOS23:480.9573.3%82.9%23:48 TOI · 0.95 iXG · 73.3% CF · 82.9% xGF
Pavel Zacha · BOS18:240.7781.1%80.9%18:24 TOI · 0.77 iXG · 81.1% CF · 80.9% xGF
Boone Jenner · CBJ19:060.6840.5%37.1%19:06 TOI · 0.68 iXG · 40.5% CF · 37.1% xGF
Tanner Jeannot · BOS12:000.6059.1%72.7%12:00 TOI · 0.60 iXG · 59.1% CF · 72.7% xGF
Marat Khusnutdinov · BOS17:180.5764.9%69.2%17:18 TOI · 0.57 iXG · 64.9% CF · 69.2% xGF
Elias Lindholm · BOS16:060.5464.1%72.5%16:06 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 64.1% CF · 72.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jet Greaves · CBJ36–3.923+2.8336–3 · .923 SV% · +2.83 GSAx
Jeremy Swayman · BOS22–3.880+0.5722–3 · .880 SV% · +0.57 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.8%

ensemble · CBJ favored

Elo Static
55.8%
P(CBJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.8%
P(CBJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.8%
P(CBJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at CBJ?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Boston BruinsColumbus Blue Jackets

Elsewhere in the NHL