Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at NYR?

The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NYR

FLA

35-35-3

NYR

30-35-9

NHLSun, Mar 29FinalSeriesNYR lead series 2-0VegasNYR -185

FLA · top performer

Mackie Samoskevich

RW · #11

1Points

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

Adam Fox

D · #23

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	16:51
N. FooteLW · #25	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	11:32
A.J. GreerLW · #10	0	0	1	1	2	2	0	16:42
N. GregorLW · #18	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	13:29
V. HinostrozaC · #24	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	14:50
L. KuninC · #71	0	0	0	0	3	1	5	9:41
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	17:23
T. NosekLW · #92	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	14:51
C. ReinhardtLW · #29	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	11:27
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:43
M. TkachukLW · #19	0	0	-2	3	1	2	0	19:03
C. VerhaegheC · #23	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	19:52

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BenningD · #20	0	1	-2	2	0	0	0	16:41
A. EkbladD · #5	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	21:14
G. ForslingD · #42	0	0	-1	3	1	1	0	20:26
S. JonesD · #3	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	24:00
D. KulikovD · #7	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	15:59
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	17:42

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BobrovskyG · #72	21	2	19	.905	58:34

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrodzinskiC · #22	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	11:21
J. ChmelarRW · #49	0	0	-1	0	4	0	0	12:26
W. CuylleLW · #50	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	14:08
T. KartyeLW · #24	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	14:10
N. LabaC · #42	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	13:20
A. LafreniereLW · #13	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	17:17
J.T. MillerLW · #8	0	1	0	0	3	1	0	17:44
G. PerreaultRW · #94	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:35
C. ShearyLW · #43	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:07
A. SykoraLW · #38	1	0	1	1	2	1	5	10:03
V. TrocheckC · #16	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	19:22
M. ZibanejadC · #93	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	19:55

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	17:41
D. FortescueD · #45	0	0	-1	1	1	3	2	16:54
A. FoxD · #23	1	1	2	3	0	4	0	23:52
V. GavrikovD · #44	0	0	2	0	1	2	0	24:54
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	16:22
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	0	0	3	0	3	2	18:49

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ShesterkinG · #31	27	1	26	.963	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NYR lead series 2-0

Jan 3

NYR5@

FLA1

Mar 29

FLA1@

NYR3today

Apr 13

NYR2@

FLA3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA+15439%

NYR-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗

Line movement · 99 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYR beat FLA 3-1. A. Fox led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
FLA	0	0	1	1
NYR	0	0	3	3

Period scoring

FLA won 0 · NYR won 1

FLA

NYR

Play-by-play · 298 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
FLA 1·NYR 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 1·NYR 3
3rd·19:39
Tomas Nosek faceoff won against Noah Laba
·
FLA 1·NYR 3
3rd·19:39
Goalie Stopped
FLA 1·NYR 3
3rd·19:38
Braden Schneider Wrist Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
FLA 1·NYR 3
3rd·19:36
Braden Schneider Wrist Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
FLA 1·NYR 3
3rd·19:19
Luke Kunin faceoff won against Noah Laba
·
FLA 1·NYR 3
3rd·19:19
Mackie Samoskevich Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Boqvist (8), Mike Benning (4)
· ·
FLA 1·NYR 3
3rd·19:04
A.J. Greer shot blocked by Drew Fortescue
·
FLA 0·NYR 3
3rd·18:27
Adam Sykora hit Seth Jones
·
FLA 0·NYR 3
3rd·18:18
Adam Sykora hit Donovan Sebrango
·
FLA 0·NYR 3
3rd·18:10
Giveaway by Seth Jones
FLA 0·NYR 3
3rd·17:55
Takeaway by Noah Gregor
FLA 0·NYR 3
3rd·17:45
Giveaway by Mika Zibanejad
FLA 0·NYR 3
3rd·17:23
Matthew Robertson Slap Shot Wide Right
·
FLA 0·NYR 3
3rd·17:02
Takeaway by Braden Schneider
FLA 0·NYR 3
3rd·17:00
Cole Reinhardt shot blocked by Braden Schneider
·
FLA 0·NYR 3
3rd·16:38
Jonny Brodzinski shot blocked by Luke Kunin
·
FLA 0·NYR 3
3rd·16:06
Noah Laba faceoff won against Luke Kunin
·
FLA 0·NYR 3
3rd·16:06
Adam Fox Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Borgen (9)
·
FLA 0·NYR 3
3rd·15:35
Eetu Luostarinen shot blocked by Vladislav Gavrikov
·
FLA 0·NYR 2
3rd·15:24
Mackie Samoskevich shot blocked by Vladislav Gavrikov
·
FLA 0·NYR 2
3rd·15:22
Igor Shesterkin shot blocked by Matthew Tkachuk
·
FLA 0·NYR 2
3rd·14:55
Noah Laba Backhand Wide Left
FLA 0·NYR 2
3rd·14:40
Eetu Luostarinen faceoff won against Noah Laba
·
FLA 0·NYR 2
3rd·14:40
Icing
FLA 0·NYR 2
3rd·14:31
A.J. Greer Wrap-around Wide Right
·
FLA 0·NYR 2
3rd·13:58
Jesper Boqvist Snap Shot Wide Left
·
FLA 0·NYR 2
3rd·13:32
Giveaway by Matthew Tkachuk
FLA 0·NYR 2
3rd·13:11
Matthew Tkachuk shot blocked by Eetu Luostarinen
·
FLA 0·NYR 2

Betting line

NYR -1.5·O/U 5.5·FLA +154/NYR -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Rangers held off Florida Panthers, 3–1.

NYR -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Matthew Tkachuk · FLA19:120.6874.4%81.8%19:12 TOI · 0.68 iXG · 74.4% CF · 81.8% xGF
Noah Laba · NYR13:180.6773.1%75.2%13:18 TOI · 0.67 iXG · 73.1% CF · 75.2% xGF
Carter Verhaeghe · FLA19:540.5272.7%81.6%19:54 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 72.7% CF · 81.6% xGF
Mika Zibanejad · NYR20:120.3634.1%39.4%20:12 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 34.1% CF · 39.4% xGF
Jesper Boqvist · NJD16:360.3365.4%62.8%16:36 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 65.4% CF · 62.8% xGF
Braden Schneider · NYR18:540.3038.9%40.8%18:54 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 38.9% CF · 40.8% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Igor Shesterkin · NYR26–1.963+1.8626–1 · .963 SV% · +1.86 GSAx
Sergei Bobrovsky · FLA19–2.905-0.0519–2 · .905 SV% · -0.05 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.6%

ensemble · NYR favored

Elo Static
52.6%
P(NYR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.6%
P(NYR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.6%
P(NYR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+154

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at NYR?: The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Florida PanthersNew York Rangers

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