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FINAL+2MTL
MTL

MTL

42-21-10

31
CAR

CAR

46-21-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Mar 29FinalSeriesMTL wins series 3-0VegasCAR -175

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Carolina Hurricanes and beat them, 3–1.

MTL +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

MTL
Nick Suzuki

Nick Suzuki

C · #14

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

CAR
Sebastian Aho

Sebastian Aho

C · #20

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Montreal Canadiens at Carolina Hurricanes · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
1
MTL42-21-10CAR46-21-6
MTL

MTL

42-21-10

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CAR

CAR

46-21-6

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

8

Playoff series

May 22MTLMTL6@CARCAR2
May 23MTLMTL2@CARCAR3
May 26CARCAR3@MTLMTL2
May 28CARCAR4@MTLMTL0
May 30MTLMTL1@CARCAR6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTLMTL+14541%
CARCAR-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat CAR 3-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
MTL0303
CAR1001

Period scoring

MTL won 1 · CAR won 1

0
1

1

3
0

2

0
0

3

MTL
CAR

Play-by-play · 326 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  3. 3rd·19:37

    Jake Evans shot blocked by Shayne Gostisbehere

    ·

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  4. 3rd·19:36

    Giveaway by Jaccob Slavin

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  5. 3rd·19:22

    Giveaway by Jackson Blake

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  6. 3rd·19:13

    Mark Jankowski hit Phillip Danault

    ·

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  7. 3rd·18:21

    Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Nikolaj Ehlers

    ·

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  8. 3rd·18:08

    Kaiden Guhle hit Seth Jarvis

    ·

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  9. 3rd·18:00

    Nikolaj Ehlers hit Nick Suzuki

    ·

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  10. 3rd·17:55

    Jake Evans shot blocked by Shayne Gostisbehere

    ·

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  11. 3rd·17:29

    Nikolaj Ehlers hit Noah Dobson

    ·

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  12. 3rd·17:28

    Takeaway by Nikolaj Ehlers

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  13. 3rd·17:07

    Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Nick Suzuki

    ·

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  14. 3rd·17:01

    Nick Suzuki hit Sebastian Aho

    ·

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  15. 3rd·16:51

    Jordan Staal Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  16. 3rd·16:50

    Shayne Gostisbehere Slap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  17. 3rd·16:47

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  18. 3rd·16:47

    Icing

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  19. 3rd·16:42

    Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot Wide Left

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  20. 3rd·16:41

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  21. 3rd·16:41

    Goalie Stopped

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  22. 3rd·16:39

    Nikolaj Ehlers Snap Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  23. 3rd·16:20

    Taylor Hall Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  24. 3rd·16:09

    Jackson Blake Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  25. 3rd·15:13

    Seth Jarvis shot blocked by Phillip Danault

    ·

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  26. 3rd·15:03

    Andrei Svechnikov Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  27. 3rd·15:02

    Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Oliver Kapanen

    ·

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  28. 3rd·14:50

    Shayne Gostisbehere shot blocked by Noah Dobson

    ·

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  29. 3rd·14:48

    Shayne Gostisbehere shot blocked by Phillip Danault

    ·

    MTL 3·CAR 1

  30. 3rd·13:48

    Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier

    · ·

    MTL 3·CAR 1

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

18

Shots

35

25.0

PCT

33.3

6

PIM

8

22

Faceoffs W

26

32

Blocks

12

14

Giveaways

13

4

Takeaways

4

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL +145/CAR -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    DIST MI62.999
  • Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
    DIST MI56.699
  • Arber XhekajMTL · D
    SHOT MPH98.598
  • Ivan DemidovMTL · RW
    DIST MI49.298

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · CAR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR