NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2MTL

MTL

42-21-10

CAR

46-21-6

NHLSun, Mar 29FinalSeriesMTL wins series 3-0VegasCAR -175

MTL · top performer

Nick Suzuki

C · #14

3Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Andrei Svechnikov

RW · #37

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:11
C. CaufieldRW · #13	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	15:45
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	15:34
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	15:20
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	0	0	5	2	0	17:55
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	11:27
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	15:41
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	17:14
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	1	2	2	1	2	0	19:49
N. SuzukiC · #14	2	1	2	5	1	1	2	20:17
J. VelenoC · #90	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	12:41

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	1	0	1	4	0	19:05
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	0	4	1	3	0	22:07
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	19:42
L. HutsonD · #48	0	2	2	0	0	4	0	19:31
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	23:23
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	10:30
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	5:11

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	35	1	34	.971	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	1	-1	1	1	0	0	19:30
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	18:43
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	5:59
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	0	-1	3	2	1	2	18:08
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:24
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	9:29
S. JarvisC · #24	0	1	-1	5	1	0	0	19:13
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	14:02
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	8:43
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	-1	2	4	0	0	17:37
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	18:38
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	1	0	-1	4	3	0	2	16:56

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	17:18
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	0	-1	3	0	3	0	20:25
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	-1	3	2	3	0	19:33
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	18:12
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:07
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	-1	2	5	2	0	19:07

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	18	3	15	.833	55:52

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

May 22

MTL6@

CAR2

May 23

MTL2@

CAR3

May 26

CAR3@

MTL2

May 28

CAR4@

MTL0

May 30

MTL1@

CAR6

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL+14541%

CAR-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 32 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat CAR 3-1. N. Suzuki led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	0	3	0	3
CAR	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

MTL won 1 · CAR won 1

MTL

CAR

Play-by-play · 326 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·19:37
Jake Evans shot blocked by Shayne Gostisbehere
·
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·19:36
Giveaway by Jaccob Slavin
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·19:22
Giveaway by Jackson Blake
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·19:13
Mark Jankowski hit Phillip Danault
·
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·18:21
Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Nikolaj Ehlers
·
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·18:08
Kaiden Guhle hit Seth Jarvis
·
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·18:00
Nikolaj Ehlers hit Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·17:55
Jake Evans shot blocked by Shayne Gostisbehere
·
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·17:29
Nikolaj Ehlers hit Noah Dobson
·
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·17:28
Takeaway by Nikolaj Ehlers
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·17:07
Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·17:01
Nick Suzuki hit Sebastian Aho
·
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·16:51
Jordan Staal Backhand Wide Right
·
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·16:50
Shayne Gostisbehere Slap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·16:47
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·16:47
Icing
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·16:42
Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot Wide Left
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·16:41
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·16:41
Goalie Stopped
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·16:39
Nikolaj Ehlers Snap Shot High and Wide Right
·
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·16:20
Taylor Hall Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·16:09
Jackson Blake Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·15:13
Seth Jarvis shot blocked by Phillip Danault
·
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·15:03
Andrei Svechnikov Backhand Wide Right
·
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·15:02
Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Oliver Kapanen
·
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·14:50
Shayne Gostisbehere shot blocked by Noah Dobson
·
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·14:48
Shayne Gostisbehere shot blocked by Phillip Danault
·
MTL 3·CAR 1
3rd·13:48
Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
· ·
MTL 3·CAR 1

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL +145/CAR -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Carolina Hurricanes and beat them, 3–1.

MTL +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Nick Suzuki · MTL20:420.8736.2%42.5%20:42 TOI · 0.87 iXG · 36.2% CF · 42.5% xGF
Seth Jarvis · CAR19:240.7471.4%72.0%19:24 TOI · 0.74 iXG · 71.4% CF · 72.0% xGF
Jackson Blake · CAR19:000.5975.0%82.7%19:00 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 75.0% CF · 82.7% xGF
Cole Caufield · MTL15:540.5536.8%46.7%15:54 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 36.8% CF · 46.7% xGF
Jordan Staal · CAR17:300.5082.2%69.5%17:30 TOI · 0.50 iXG · 82.2% CF · 69.5% xGF
Logan Stankoven · CAR18:480.4675.0%78.5%18:48 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 75.0% CF · 78.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jakub Dobes · MTL34–1.971+3.0034–1 · .971 SV% · +3.00 GSAx
Frederik Andersen · CAR15–3.833-0.6315–3 · .833 SV% · -0.63 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.3%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
60.3%
P(CAR win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
60.3%
P(CAR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
60.3%
P(CAR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

Montreal CanadiensCarolina Hurricanes

Elsewhere in the NHL