Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at NJ?

The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NJ

CHI

27-34-13

38-33-2

NHLSun, Mar 29FinalSeriesNJ wins series 2-0VegasNJ -170

CHI · top performer

Frank Nazar

C · #91

2Points

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

Jack Hughes

C · #86

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BedardC · #98	0	1	-1	6	1	1	0	20:40
T. BertuzziLW · #59	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	17:35
S. BoisvertC · #12	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	9:36
A. BurakovskyLW · #28	0	1	-1	0	0	1	0	14:16
R. DonatoC · #8	0	1	-2	1	0	0	0	14:52
A. FrondellC · #15	0	2	-1	3	1	0	0	16:52
R. GreeneC · #20	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:02
N. LardisLW · #76	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	15:37
I. MikheyevRW · #95	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	16:14
F. NazarC · #91	2	0	-2	7	2	1	0	19:00
L. SlaggertLW · #84	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	12:41
T. TeravainenC · #86	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	16:11

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CrevierD · #46	0	1	0	1	1	4	0	18:58
E. Del MastroD · #38	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	14:26
W. KaiserD · #44	0	0	-1	0	0	0	2	22:27
K. KorchinskiD · #14	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	12:09
S. RinzelD · #6	0	0	-1	1	0	3	0	20:49
A. VlasicD · #72	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	20:13

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KnightG · #30	39	4	35	.897	59:02

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BjugstadC · #72	0	0	-1	1	4	1	2	7:04
J. BrattLW · #63	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	17:54
C. BrownRW · #16	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	19:27
P. CotterLW · #47	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	7:36
E. DadonovLW · #33	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:47
C. GlassC · #12	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	11:31
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	11:02
N. HischierC · #13	0	2	2	2	1	1	0	21:25
J. HughesC · #86	2	2	2	8	0	0	0	22:12
T. MeierRW · #28	0	1	1	9	1	0	0	19:19
D. MercerC · #91	0	1	2	2	0	1	0	21:10
M. TsyplakovRW · #42	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	7:21

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	19:31
D. HamiltonD · #7	1	0	1	4	4	3	0	18:55
L. HughesD · #43	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	22:07
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	1	2	0	2	0	0	20:10
S. NemecD · #17	1	0	-1	3	0	2	0	16:55
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	1	1	2	3	2	0	20:37

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AllenG · #34	31	3	28	.903	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NJ wins series 2-0

Nov 13

NJ4@

CHI3

Mar 29

CHI3@

NJ5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NJ -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+14241%

NJ-17063%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 79 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NJ beat CHI 5-3. J. Hughes led the way — 2 G · 2 A · 8 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CHI	2	0	1	3
NJ	1	1	3	5

Period scoring

CHI won 1 · NJ won 2

CHI

Play-by-play · 353 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CHI 3·NJ 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CHI 3·NJ 5
3rd·19:49
Jonas Siegenthaler hit Landon Slaggert
·
CHI 3·NJ 5
3rd·19:29
Nick Bjugstad faceoff won against Sacha Boisvert
·
CHI 3·NJ 5
3rd·19:29
Jack Hughes Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (32), Johnathan Kovacevic (6)
· ·
CHI 3·NJ 5
3rd·19:21
Frank Nazar Backhand Failed Bank Attempt
·
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·19:10
Frank Nazar faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·19:10
Goalie Stopped
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·19:08
Connor Bedard Wrist Shot saved by Jake Allen
·
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·19:06
Frank Nazar faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·19:06
Icing
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·18:59
Cody Glass faceoff won against Ryan Donato
·
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·18:59
Goalie Stopped
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·18:57
Ryan Donato Wrist Shot saved by Jake Allen
·
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·18:56
Ryan Donato shot blocked by Jonas Siegenthaler
·
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·18:55
Ryan Donato shot blocked by Jonas Siegenthaler
·
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·18:47
Connor Bedard shot blocked by Dougie Hamilton
·
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·18:38
Frank Nazar faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·18:38
Goalie Stopped
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·18:36
Connor Bedard Snap Shot saved by Jake Allen
·
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·18:22
Frank Nazar faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·18:22
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·18:20
Connor Brown Wrist Shot Off Crossbar
·
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·18:10
Giveaway by Luke Hughes
·
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·17:55
Jesper Bratt hit Andre Burakovsky
·
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·17:48
Jack Hughes Tip-In Wide Right
· ·
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·17:44
Jesper Bratt Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·17:11
Dougie Hamilton hit Sam Rinzel
·
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·16:50
Connor Bedard hit Dougie Hamilton
·
CHI 3·NJ 4
3rd·16:41
Giveaway by Connor Bedard
CHI 3·NJ 4

Betting line

NJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·CHI +142/NJ -170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew Jersey Devils held off Chicago Blackhawks, 5–3.

NJ -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jack Hughes · NJD22:241.5066.7%65.9%22:24 TOI · 1.50 iXG · 66.7% CF · 65.9% xGF
Connor Brown · NJD19:241.2065.3%62.0%19:24 TOI · 1.20 iXG · 65.3% CF · 62.0% xGF
Frank Nazar · CHI19:181.1063.5%68.6%19:18 TOI · 1.10 iXG · 63.5% CF · 68.6% xGF
Timo Meier · NJD19:421.0278.6%80.4%19:42 TOI · 1.02 iXG · 78.6% CF · 80.4% xGF
Tyler Bertuzzi · CHI17:480.7973.3%72.6%17:48 TOI · 0.79 iXG · 73.3% CF · 72.6% xGF
Nick Lardis · CHI15:540.6932.6%36.4%15:54 TOI · 0.69 iXG · 32.6% CF · 36.4% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jake Allen · NJD28–3.903+0.5528–3 · .903 SV% · +0.55 GSAx
Spencer Knight · CHI35–4.897+0.3435–4 · .897 SV% · +0.34 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.2%

ensemble · NJ favored

Elo Static
65.2%
P(NJ win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
65.2%
P(NJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
65.2%
P(NJ win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-170

Close price

-170

Open no-vig

60.4%

Close no-vig

60.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at NJ?: The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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