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FINAL+2NJ
CHI

CHI

27-34-13

35
NJ

NJ

38-33-2

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Mar 29FinalSeriesNJ wins series 2-0VegasNJ -170

Recap · NHL

ew Jersey Devils held off Chicago Blackhawks, 5–3.

NJ -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHI · top performer

CHI
A

Anton Frondell

C · #15

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

NJ
Jack Hughes

Jack Hughes

C · #86

4Points

2

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Chicago Blackhawks at New Jersey Devils · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
5
CHI27-34-13NJ38-33-2
CHI

CHI

27-34-13

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NJ

NJ

38-33-2

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

6

Season series

NJ wins series 2-0

Nov 13NJNJ4@CHICHI3
Mar 29CHICHI3@NJNJ5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NJ -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHICHI+14241%
NJNJ-17063%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NJ beat CHI 5-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
CHI2013
NJ1135

Period scoring

CHI won 1 · NJ won 2

2
1

1

0
1

2

1
3

3

CHI
NJ

Play-by-play · 353 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    CHI 3·NJ 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CHI 3·NJ 5

  3. 3rd·19:49

    Jonas Siegenthaler hit Landon Slaggert

    ·

    CHI 3·NJ 5

  4. 3rd·19:29

    Nick Bjugstad faceoff won against Sacha Boisvert

    ·

    CHI 3·NJ 5

  5. 3rd·19:29

    Jack Hughes Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (32), Johnathan Kovacevic (6)

    · ·

    CHI 3·NJ 5

  6. 3rd·19:21

    Frank Nazar Backhand Failed Bank Attempt

    ·

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  7. 3rd·19:10

    Frank Nazar faceoff won against Nico Hischier

    ·

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  8. 3rd·19:10

    Goalie Stopped

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  9. 3rd·19:08

    Connor Bedard Wrist Shot saved by Jake Allen

    ·

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  10. 3rd·19:06

    Frank Nazar faceoff won against Cody Glass

    ·

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  11. 3rd·19:06

    Icing

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  12. 3rd·18:59

    Cody Glass faceoff won against Ryan Donato

    ·

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  13. 3rd·18:59

    Goalie Stopped

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  14. 3rd·18:57

    Ryan Donato Wrist Shot saved by Jake Allen

    ·

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  15. 3rd·18:56

    Ryan Donato shot blocked by Jonas Siegenthaler

    ·

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  16. 3rd·18:55

    Ryan Donato shot blocked by Jonas Siegenthaler

    ·

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  17. 3rd·18:47

    Connor Bedard shot blocked by Dougie Hamilton

    ·

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  18. 3rd·18:38

    Frank Nazar faceoff won against Nico Hischier

    ·

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  19. 3rd·18:38

    Goalie Stopped

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  20. 3rd·18:36

    Connor Bedard Snap Shot saved by Jake Allen

    ·

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  21. 3rd·18:22

    Frank Nazar faceoff won against Nico Hischier

    ·

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  22. 3rd·18:22

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  23. 3rd·18:20

    Connor Brown Wrist Shot Off Crossbar

    ·

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  24. 3rd·18:10

    Giveaway by Luke Hughes

    ·

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  25. 3rd·17:55

    Jesper Bratt hit Andre Burakovsky

    ·

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  26. 3rd·17:48

    Jack Hughes Tip-In Wide Right

    · ·

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  27. 3rd·17:44

    Jesper Bratt Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight

    ·

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  28. 3rd·17:11

    Dougie Hamilton hit Sam Rinzel

    ·

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  29. 3rd·16:50

    Connor Bedard hit Dougie Hamilton

    ·

    CHI 3·NJ 4

  30. 3rd·16:41

    Giveaway by Connor Bedard

    CHI 3·NJ 4

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

NJ

Home

31

Shots

40

33.3

PCT

50.0

4

PIM

6

23

Faceoffs W

35

20

Blocks

14

16

Giveaways

24

2

Takeaways

6

Betting line

NJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·CHI +142/NJ -170

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Louis CrevierCHI · D
    SHOT MPH102.899
  • Connor BedardCHI · C
    BURSTS19595
  • Anton FrondellCHI · C
    SHOT MPH93.694
  • Alex VlasicCHI · D
    BURSTS7190
  • Ryan DonatoCHI · C
    SHOT MPH91.388

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NJ favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-170

Close price

-170

Open no-vig

60.4%

Close no-vig

60.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR