NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3SEA

NYI

27-18-5

SEA

22-18-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Jan 21FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNYI -112

Recap · NHL

eattle Kraken held off New York Islanders, 4–1.

SEA +1.5 cashed (NYI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYI · top performer

Mathew Barzal

C · #13

1Points

—

SOG

SEA · top performer

Jared McCann

LW · #19

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

NYI27-18-5

SEA22-18-9

NYI27-18-5SEA22-18-9

NYI

27-18-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

SEA

22-18-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 23

SEA0@

NYI1

Jan 22

NYI1@

SEA4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYI-11253%

SEA-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SEA beat NYI 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYI	1	0	0	1
SEA	1	2	1	4

Period scoring

NYI won 0 · SEA won 2

NYI

SEA

Play-by-play · 265 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYI 1·SEA 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 1·SEA 4
3rd·19:56
Tony DeAngelo Backhand saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
NYI 1·SEA 4
3rd·19:36
Giveaway by Tony DeAngelo
NYI 1·SEA 4
3rd·18:22
Anders Lee hit Berkly Catton
·
NYI 1·SEA 4
3rd·17:32
Takeaway by Adam Pelech
NYI 1·SEA 4
3rd·17:24
Giveaway by Casey Cizikas
NYI 1·SEA 4
3rd·16:52
Jean-Gabriel Pageau hit Jared McCann
·
NYI 1·SEA 4
3rd·16:32
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Matty Beniers
·
NYI 1·SEA 4
3rd·16:32
Jared McCann Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (13), Philipp Grubauer (1)
· ·
NYI 1·SEA 4
3rd·16:26
Brandon Montour Wrist Shot Wide Right
NYI 1·SEA 3
3rd·15:56
Adam Larsson hit Matthew Schaefer
·
NYI 1·SEA 3
3rd·15:35
Takeaway by Adam Larsson
NYI 1·SEA 3
3rd·15:21
Freddy Gaudreau faceoff won against Anders Lee
·
NYI 1·SEA 3
3rd·15:21
Goalie Stopped
NYI 1·SEA 3
3rd·15:19
Adam Pelech Wrist Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
NYI 1·SEA 3
3rd·15:07
Ryan Pulock shot blocked by Kaapo Kakko
·
NYI 1·SEA 3
3rd·14:54
Adam Pelech shot blocked by Jamie Oleksiak
·
NYI 1·SEA 3
3rd·14:18
Takeaway by Brandon Montour
NYI 1·SEA 3
3rd·14:14
Emil Heineman Snap Shot Wide Left
·
NYI 1·SEA 3
3rd·14:13
Calum Ritchie shot blocked by Freddy Gaudreau
·
NYI 1·SEA 3
3rd·13:55
Anders Lee faceoff won against Freddy Gaudreau
·
NYI 1·SEA 3
3rd·13:55
Puck Frozen - Goalie
NYI 1·SEA 3
3rd·13:38
Takeaway by Frederick Gaudreau
NYI 1·SEA 3
3rd·13:24
Freddy Gaudreau faceoff won against Casey Cizikas
·
NYI 1·SEA 3
3rd·13:24
Icing
NYI 1·SEA 3
3rd·13:18
Ben Meyers faceoff won against Kyle MacLean
·
NYI 1·SEA 3
3rd·13:18
Off-side
NYI 1·SEA 3
3rd·13:16
Giveaway by Matty Beniers
NYI 1·SEA 3
3rd·12:58
Freddy Gaudreau faceoff won against Kyle MacLean
·
NYI 1·SEA 3

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

Shots

14.3

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 5.5·NYI -112/SEA -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
BURSTS26999+
Ryan PulockNYI · D
SHOT MPH103.099+
Mathew BarzalNYI · C
DIST MI274.399
Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
SHOT MPH97.399
Brandon MontourSEA · D
SHOT MPH101.698

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

SEA vs NYI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 129 high confidence

Shots on goal

Bobby McMannSEA
3.0± 1.8high
Brandon MontourSEA
3.0± 1.3high
Bo HorvatNYI
2.9± 0.9high

Goals

Anders LeeNYI
0.3± 0.5high
Bo HorvatNYI
0.3± 0.4high
Brayden SchennNYI
0.3± 0.5high

Points

Mathew BarzalNYI
0.8± 0.7high
Bo HorvatNYI
0.7± 1.0high
Calum RitchieNYI
0.7± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands