Jan 3, 26sim 99
21
29(H)5
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2CGY
NYI
26-17-5
24
CGY
21-23-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
algary Flames held off New York Islanders, 4–2.
CGY -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NYI · top performer
Simon Holmstrom
RW · #10
1Points
0
G
1
A
—
SOG
CGY · top performer
Adam Klapka
RW · #43
2Points
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · New York Islanders at Calgary Flames · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final
NYI26-17-5
24
CGY21-23-4
NYI26-17-5CGY21-23-4
NYI
26-17-5
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
CGY
21-23-4
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
PIM
4
Season series
CGY leads series 1-0
Jan 17NYI2@CGY4today
NYI2@CGY4todayMar 14CGY2@NYI3
CGY2@NYI3Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CGY -1.5
Total
5.5
Defensive · -3.0 vs avg
Moneyline
NYI+10549%CGY-12556%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 7 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
5.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
CGY beat NYI 4-2.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| CGY | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
Period scoring
NYI won 1 · CGY won 2
0
1
1
1
3
2
1
0
3
NYI
CGY
Play-by-play · 294 plays
period
event
player
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
NYI 2·CGY 4
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 2·CGY 4
- 3rd·19:58
Mathew Barzal Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
NYI 2·CGY 4
- 3rd·19:40
Yan Kuznetsov Wrist Shot Wide Right
NYI 2·CGY 4
- 3rd·19:25
Takeaway by Mikael Backlund
NYI 2·CGY 4
- 3rd·19:09
Max Shabanov Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
NYI 2·CGY 4
- 3rd·19:08
Ryan Pulock Slap Shot Wide Left
·
NYI 2·CGY 4
- 3rd·18:49
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Jonathan Drouin
·
NYI 2·CGY 4
- 3rd·18:49
Hand Pass
NYI 2·CGY 4
- 3rd·18:44
Emil Heineman Snap Shot High and Wide Left
·
NYI 2·CGY 4
- 3rd·18:24
Anthony Duclair Slap Shot Wide Right
·
NYI 2·CGY 4
- 3rd·18:11
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Mathew Barzal
·
NYI 2·CGY 4
- 3rd·18:11
Jonathan Huberdeau Hooking against Anthony Duclair
·
NYI 2·CGY 4
- 3rd·17:14
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Morgan Frost
·
NYI 2·CGY 4
- 3rd·17:14
Puck in Netting
NYI 2·CGY 4
- 3rd·17:12
Morgan Frost shot blocked by Tony DeAngelo
·
NYI 2·CGY 4
- 3rd·17:04
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
NYI 2·CGY 4
- 3rd·17:04
Anders Lee Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (6), Matthew Schaefer (19)
· ·
NYI 2·CGY 4
- 3rd·16:44
Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by Mikael Backlund
·
NYI 1·CGY 4
- 3rd·16:20
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Mathew Barzal
·
NYI 1·CGY 4
- 3rd·16:20
Goalie Stopped
NYI 1·CGY 4
- 3rd·16:18
Tony DeAngelo Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
NYI 1·CGY 4
- 3rd·14:54
Anders Lee Tip-In Wide Left
·
NYI 1·CGY 4
- 3rd·14:39
Mathew Barzal faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
NYI 1·CGY 4
- 3rd·14:39
Icing
NYI 1·CGY 4
- 3rd·14:38
Dustin Wolf Wrist Shot Wide Left
NYI 1·CGY 4
- 3rd·14:31
Max Shabanov Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
NYI 1·CGY 4
- 3rd·14:09
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
NYI 1·CGY 4
- 3rd·14:09
Icing
NYI 1·CGY 4
- 3rd·14:00
Giveaway by MacKenzie Weegar
NYI 1·CGY 4
Team stats
NYI
Away
Stat
CGY
Home
30
Shots
19
0.0
PCT
0.0
6
PIM
4
31
Faceoffs W
18
16
Blocks
14
9
Giveaways
18
4
Takeaways
4
Betting line
CGY -1.5·O/U 5.5·NYI +105/CGY -125
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
Matthew SchaeferNYI · DBURSTS26999+
Ryan PulockNYI · DSHOT MPH103.099+
Mathew BarzalNYI · CDIST MI274.399
Emil HeinemanNYI · LWSHOT MPH97.399
Yan KuznetsovCGY · DSHOT MPH100.297
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · CGY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CGY vs NYI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
138
projections · 120 high confidence
Shots on goal
- Bo HorvatNYI2.9± 0.9high
- Blake ColemanCGY2.7± 1.6high
- Kyle PalmieriNYI2.7± 1.6high
Goals
- Blake ColemanCGY0.4± 0.7high
- Morgan FrostCGY0.4± 0.7high
- Joel FarabeeCGY0.3± 0.5high
Points
- Matt CoronatoCGY0.8± 0.8high
- Mathew BarzalNYI0.8± 0.7high
- Morgan FrostCGY0.7± 1.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands