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FINAL+1PIT
DET

DET

24-14-4

34
PIT

PIT

18-12-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 1FinalSeriesPIT leads series 1-0VegasPIT -135

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins held off Detroit Red Wings, 4–3 in overtime.

DET +1.5 cashed (PIT won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Andrew Copp

Andrew Copp

C · #18

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

PIT
Sidney Crosby

Sidney Crosby

C · #87

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
3
4
DET24-14-4PIT18-12-9
DET

DET

24-14-4

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
PIT

PIT

18-12-9

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

16

Season series

PIT leads series 1-0

Jan 2DETDET3@PITPIT4today
Jan 3PITPIT4@DETDET1
Mar 31DETDET1@PITPIT5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET+11447%
PITPIT-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat DET 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
DET11103
PIT20114

Period scoring

DET won 1 · PIT won 2

1
2

1

1
0

2

1
1

3

0
1

OT

DET
PIT

Play-by-play · 316 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·0:58

    Game End

    DET 3·PIT 4

  2. OT·0:58

    End of OT

    DET 3·PIT 4

  3. OT·0:58

    Kris Letang Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (20), Bryan Rust (20)

    · ·

    DET 3·PIT 4

  4. OT·0:24

    Erik Karlsson Snap Shot saved by Cam Talbot

    ·

    DET 3·PIT 3

  5. OT·0:10

    Rickard Rakell shot blocked by Moritz Seider

    ·

    DET 3·PIT 3

  6. OT·0:00

    Ben Kindel faceoff won against Dylan Larkin

    ·

    DET 3·PIT 3

  7. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    DET 3·PIT 3

  8. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    DET 3·PIT 3

  9. 3rd·19:19

    Takeaway by Lucas Raymond

    DET 3·PIT 3

  10. 3rd·19:01

    Michael Rasmussen Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    DET 3·PIT 3

  11. 3rd·18:40

    Thomas Novak shot blocked by Albert Johansson

    ·

    DET 3·PIT 3

  12. 3rd·18:39

    Justin Brazeau Wrist Shot saved by Cam Talbot

    ·

    DET 3·PIT 3

  13. 3rd·18:11

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Thomas Novak

    ·

    DET 3·PIT 3

  14. 3rd·18:11

    Icing

    DET 3·PIT 3

  15. 3rd·17:37

    Dylan Larkin shot blocked by Brett Kulak

    ·

    DET 3·PIT 3

  16. 3rd·17:16

    Lucas Raymond Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    DET 3·PIT 3

  17. 3rd·17:13

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Sidney Crosby

    ·

    DET 3·PIT 3

  18. 3rd·17:13

    Goalie Stopped

    DET 3·PIT 3

  19. 3rd·17:10

    Michael Rasmussen Tip-In saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    DET 3·PIT 3

  20. 3rd·17:02

    J.T. Compher faceoff won against Sidney Crosby

    ·

    DET 3·PIT 3

  21. 3rd·17:02

    Alex DeBrincat Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Lucas Raymond (33), Dylan Larkin (17)

    · ·

    DET 3·PIT 3

  22. 3rd·16:59

    Lucas Raymond shot blocked by Noel Acciari

    ·

    DET 2·PIT 3

  23. 3rd·16:55

    Dylan Larkin shot blocked by Erik Karlsson

    ·

    DET 2·PIT 3

  24. 3rd·16:14

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Noel Acciari

    ·

    DET 2·PIT 3

  25. 3rd·16:14

    Jack St. Ivany Delaying Game - Puck over glass

    DET 2·PIT 3

  26. 3rd·15:51

    Thomas Novak faceoff won against Andrew Copp

    ·

    DET 2·PIT 3

  27. 3rd·15:51

    Blake Lizotte Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (27), Parker Wotherspoon (11)

    · ·

    DET 2·PIT 3

  28. 3rd·15:47

    Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Ben Chiarot

    ·

    DET 2·PIT 2

  29. 3rd·15:19

    Noel Acciari Wrist Shot saved by Cam Talbot

    ·

    DET 2·PIT 2

  30. 3rd·15:16

    Parker Wotherspoon shot blocked by Simon Edvinsson

    ·

    DET 2·PIT 2

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

27

Shots

31

25.0

PCT

33.3

6

PIM

16

27

Faceoffs W

30

17

Blocks

18

11

Giveaways

11

4

Takeaways

4

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 6.5·DET +114/PIT -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
    SHOT MPH94.799
  • Erik KarlssonPIT · D
    SKATE MPH22.897
  • Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
    DIST MI252.196
  • Emmitt FinnieDET · C
    BURSTS19394

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR