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FINAL+4CBJ
BUF

BUF

21-15-4

15
CBJ

CBJ

18-16-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 3FinalSeriesCBJ lead series 2-0VegasBUF -110

Recap · NHL

olumbus Blue Jackets held off Buffalo Sabres, 5–1.

CBJ +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Josh Doan

Josh Doan

RW · #91

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

CBJ · top performer

CBJ
Zachary Aston-Reese

Zachary Aston-Reese

LW · #27

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Columbus Blue Jackets · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
5
BUF21-15-4CBJ18-16-6
BUF

BUF

21-15-4

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CBJ

CBJ

18-16-6

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

14

Season series

CBJ lead series 2-0

Oct 28CBJCBJ4@BUFBUF3
Jan 3BUFBUF1@CBJCBJ5today
Apr 9CBJCBJ0@BUFBUF5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF-11052%
CBJCBJ-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CBJ beat BUF 5-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BUF1001
CBJ3115

Period scoring

BUF won 0 · CBJ won 3

1
3

1

0
1

2

0
1

3

BUF
CBJ

Play-by-play · 349 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  3. 3rd·19:57

    Denton Mateychuk shot blocked by Peyton Krebs

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  4. 3rd·19:50

    Ivan Provorov Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  5. 3rd·19:32

    Mattias Samuelsson Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  6. 3rd·19:30

    Mattias Samuelsson shot blocked by Brendan Gaunce

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  7. 3rd·19:10

    Alex Tuch hit Ivan Provorov

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  8. 3rd·19:02

    Alex Tuch Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  9. 3rd·18:31

    Mathieu Olivier hit Zach Metsa

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  10. 3rd·18:22

    Charlie Coyle Tip-In saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  11. 3rd·18:19

    Boone Jenner faceoff won against Josh Norris

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  12. 3rd·18:19

    Icing

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  13. 3rd·18:02

    Brendan Gaunce faceoff won against Josh Norris

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  14. 3rd·18:02

    Off-side

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  15. 3rd·17:33

    Brendan Gaunce Snap Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  16. 3rd·17:25

    Josh Dunne hit Ivan Provorov

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  17. 3rd·17:16

    Jordan Greenway hit Cole Sillinger

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  18. 3rd·16:37

    Jacob Bryson Slap Shot saved by Jet Greaves

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  19. 3rd·16:35

    Josh Dunne faceoff won against Cole Sillinger

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  20. 3rd·16:35

    Puck in Netting

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  21. 3rd·16:33

    Jack Quinn Slap Shot saved by Jet Greaves

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  22. 3rd·16:19

    Jack Quinn shot blocked by Mathieu Olivier

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  23. 3rd·16:12

    Alex Tuch Slap Shot saved by Jet Greaves

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  24. 3rd·15:54

    Ryan McLeod Slap Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  25. 3rd·15:27

    Boone Jenner Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  26. 3rd·15:04

    Giveaway by Josh Doan

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  27. 3rd·14:59

    Josh Doan Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  28. 3rd·14:57

    Rasmus Dahlin Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  29. 3rd·14:38

    Takeaway by Rasmus Dahlin

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

  30. 3rd·14:33

    Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 1·CBJ 5

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

CBJ

Home

33

Shots

35

0.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

14

31

Faceoffs W

28

15

Blocks

13

21

Giveaways

14

2

Takeaways

5

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF -110/CBJ -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Ivan ProvorovCBJ · D
    DIST MI299.999+
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Kirill MarchenkoCBJ · RW
    BURSTS30199
  • Zach WerenskiCBJ · D
    DIST MI289.198
  • Adam FantilliCBJ · C
    DIST MI256.696

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CBJ favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CBJ win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CBJ win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CBJ win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR