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FINAL+1UTA
PHI

PHI

23-17-9

45
UTA

UTA

26-20-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Jan 21FinalSeriesUTA leads series 1-0VegasUTAH -180

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth held off Philadelphia Flyers, 5–4 in overtime.

PHI +1.5 cashed (UTA won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Christian Dvorak

Christian Dvorak

C · #22

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

UTA
Clayton Keller

Clayton Keller

RW · #9

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Philadelphia Flyers at Utah Mammoth · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
4
5
PHI23-17-9UTA26-20-4
PHI

PHI

23-17-9

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
UTA

UTA

26-20-4

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

PIM

17

Season series

UTA leads series 1-0

Jan 22PHIPHI4@UTAUTA5today
Mar 6UTAUTA3@PHIPHI0

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI+15040%
UTAUTA-18064%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat PHI 5-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
PHI22004
UTA02215

Period scoring

PHI won 1 · UTA won 2

2
0

1

2
2

2

0
2

3

0
1

OT

PHI
UTA

Play-by-play · 348 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·2:01

    Game End

    PHI 4·UTA 5

  2. OT·2:01

    End of OT

    PHI 4·UTA 5

  3. OT·2:01

    Clayton Keller Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (19)

    ·

    PHI 4·UTA 5

  4. OT·1:45

    Giveaway by Mikhail Sergachev

    PHI 4·UTA 4

  5. OT·1:19

    Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    PHI 4·UTA 4

  6. OT·1:19

    Icing

    PHI 4·UTA 4

  7. OT·1:11

    Nick Schmaltz Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PHI 4·UTA 4

  8. OT·0:40

    Jack McBain faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    PHI 4·UTA 4

  9. OT·0:40

    Icing

    PHI 4·UTA 4

  10. OT·0:00

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund

    ·

    PHI 4·UTA 4

  11. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    PHI 4·UTA 4

  12. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PHI 4·UTA 4

  13. 3rd·19:53

    Nate Schmidt Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PHI 4·UTA 4

  14. 3rd·19:46

    Kevin Stenlund Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    PHI 4·UTA 4

  15. 3rd·19:25

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Noah Cates

    ·

    PHI 4·UTA 4

  16. 3rd·19:25

    Clayton Keller Goal (14) Backhand, assists: none

    PHI 4·UTA 4

  17. 3rd·19:17

    Lawson Crouse hit Travis Konecny

    ·

    PHI 4·UTA 3

  18. 3rd·19:07

    Travis Konecny shot blocked by Jack McBain

    ·

    PHI 4·UTA 3

  19. 3rd·18:58

    Dylan Guenther shot blocked by Cam York

    ·

    PHI 4·UTA 3

  20. 3rd·18:55

    Jack McBain faceoff won against Sean Couturier

    ·

    PHI 4·UTA 3

  21. 3rd·18:55

    Timeout - Home

    PHI 4·UTA 3

  22. 3rd·18:55

    Off-side

    PHI 4·UTA 3

  23. 3rd·18:44

    Nick Seeler shot blocked by Clayton Keller

    ·

    PHI 4·UTA 3

  24. 3rd·18:41

    Giveaway by Dylan Guenther

    PHI 4·UTA 3

  25. 3rd·17:33

    Brandon Tanev Snap Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    PHI 4·UTA 3

  26. 3rd·17:23

    Noah Cates Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    PHI 4·UTA 3

  27. 3rd·17:20

    Noah Cates faceoff won against Barrett Hayton

    ·

    PHI 4·UTA 3

  28. 3rd·17:20

    Goalie Stopped

    PHI 4·UTA 3

  29. 3rd·17:18

    Bobby Brink Backhand saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    PHI 4·UTA 3

  30. 3rd·17:16

    Barrett Hayton hit Trevor Zegras

    ·

    PHI 4·UTA 3

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

29

Shots

27

33.3

PCT

33.3

11

PIM

17

34

Faceoffs W

26

18

Blocks

11

20

Giveaways

13

5

Takeaways

3

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI +150/UTA -180

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795
  • Cam YorkPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.693
  • Christian DvorakPHI · C
    BURSTS3492
  • Denver BarkeyPHI · C
    BURSTS2178

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · UTA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR