Jan 20, 26sim 98
152
37(H)1
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+3MTL
CGY
18-21-4
14
MTL
24-13-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
ontreal Canadiens held off Calgary Flames, 4–1.
MTL -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CGY · top performer
Joel Farabee
LW · #86
1Points
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
MTL · top performer
Alexandre Texier
LW · #85
3Points
1
G
2
A
—
SOG
NHL · Calgary Flames at Montreal Canadiens · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final
CGY18-21-4
14
MTL24-13-6
CGY18-21-4MTL24-13-6
CGY
18-21-4
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
MTL
24-13-6
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
4
PIM
8
Season series
MTL wins series 2-0
Oct 23MTL2@CGY1
MTL2@CGY1Jan 8CGY1@MTL4today
CGY1@MTL4todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MTL -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
CGY+11447%MTL-13557%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 8 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MTL beat CGY 4-1.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| MTL | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Period scoring
CGY won 0 · MTL won 2
0
0
1
1
3
2
0
1
3
CGY
MTL
Play-by-play · 321 plays
period
event
player
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·19:39
Giveaway by Arber Xhekaj
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·19:19
Takeaway by Joe Veleno
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·19:08
Zachary Bolduc hit Joel Hanley
·
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·18:53
Joel Farabee Slap Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·18:42
Joel Farabee shot blocked by Lane Hutson
·
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·18:32
Hunter Brzustewicz Snap Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·18:07
Brendan Gallagher Snap Shot Short
·
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·18:05
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·18:05
Goalie Stopped
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·18:03
Samuel Blais Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·18:02
Samuel Blais Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·18:01
Giveaway by Yegor Sharangovich
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·17:58
Takeaway by Yegor Sharangovich
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·17:15
Joseph Veleno faceoff won against Morgan Frost
·
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·17:15
Icing
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·15:58
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·15:58
Goalie Stopped
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·15:56
Jonathan Huberdeau Backhand saved by Jacob Fowler
·
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·15:28
Nazem Kadri faceoff won against Oliver Kapanen
·
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·15:28
Challenge Hm - off-side - no goal
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·15:09
Joel Hanley hit Samuel Blais
·
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·14:25
Connor Zary Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·14:12
Zachary Bolduc hit Joel Hanley
·
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·12:59
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Yegor Sharangovich
·
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·12:59
Off-side
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·12:49
Nick Suzuki Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·11:53
Blake Coleman hit Noah Dobson
·
CGY 1·MTL 4
- 3rd·11:45
Mikael Backlund shot blocked by Noah Dobson
·
CGY 1·MTL 4
Team stats
CGY
Away
Stat
MTL
Home
29
Shots
36
0.0
PCT
0.0
4
PIM
8
32
Faceoffs W
30
13
Blocks
19
13
Giveaways
11
5
Takeaways
4
Betting line
MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·CGY +114/MTL -135
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 25 skaters with EDGE
Lane HutsonMTL · DDIST MI71.899+
Mike MathesonMTL · DDIST MI62.999
Cole CaufieldMTL · RWDIST MI56.699
Arber XhekajMTL · DSHOT MPH98.598
Ivan DemidovMTL · RWDIST MI49.298
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · MTL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-135
Close price
-135
Open no-vig
55.1%
Close no-vig
55.1%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
Player projections
MTL vs CGY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
144
projections · 120 high confidence
Shots on goal
- Cole CaufieldMTL2.8± 1.4high
- Blake ColemanCGY2.7± 1.6high
- Juraj SlafkovskyMTL2.4± 1.6high
Goals
- Cole CaufieldMTL0.5± 0.5high
- Blake ColemanCGY0.4± 0.7high
- Morgan FrostCGY0.4± 0.7high
Points
- Cole CaufieldMTL0.9± 0.7high
- Lane HutsonMTL0.9± 0.7high
- Nick SuzukiMTL0.9± 1.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands