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FINAL+3PIT
PIT

PIT

19-12-9

41
DET

DET

24-15-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 3FinalSeriesPIT leads series 2-0VegasDET -135

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 4–1.

PIT +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Sidney Crosby

Sidney Crosby

C · #87

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

DET · top performer

DET
Alex DeBrincat

Alex DeBrincat

RW · #93

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
1
PIT19-12-9DET24-15-4
PIT

PIT

19-12-9

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DET

DET

24-15-4

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

4

Season series

PIT leads series 2-0

Jan 2DETDET3@PITPIT4
Jan 3PITPIT4@DETDET1today
Mar 31DETDET1@PITPIT5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT+11447%
DETDET-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat DET 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
PIT2024
DET0101

Period scoring

PIT won 2 · DET won 1

2
0

1

0
1

2

2
0

3

PIT
DET

Play-by-play · 282 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    PIT 4·DET 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PIT 4·DET 1

  3. 3rd·19:28

    Ben Kindel faceoff won against J.T. Compher

    ·

    PIT 4·DET 1

  4. 3rd·19:28

    Connor Dewar Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (5), Kris Letang (18)

    · ·

    PIT 4·DET 1

  5. 3rd·19:00

    Andrew Copp faceoff won against Blake Lizotte

    ·

    PIT 3·DET 1

  6. 3rd·19:00

    Rickard Rakell Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (22), Brett Kulak (4)

    · ·

    PIT 3·DET 1

  7. 3rd·18:19

    Connor Dewar shot blocked by Moritz Seider

    ·

    PIT 2·DET 1

  8. 3rd·17:46

    Giveaway by Parker Wotherspoon

    PIT 2·DET 1

  9. 3rd·16:31

    Kris Letang hit Mason Appleton

    ·

    PIT 2·DET 1

  10. 3rd·16:21

    Kris Letang hit J.T. Compher

    ·

    PIT 2·DET 1

  11. 3rd·16:12

    Kris Letang shot blocked by Jacob Bernard-Docker

    ·

    PIT 2·DET 1

  12. 3rd·15:58

    Sidney Crosby faceoff won against J.T. Compher

    ·

    PIT 2·DET 1

  13. 3rd·15:58

    Icing

    PIT 2·DET 1

  14. 3rd·14:58

    Yegor Chinakhov Snap Shot saved by John Gibson

    ·

    PIT 2·DET 1

  15. 3rd·14:49

    Yegor Chinakhov shot blocked by Simon Edvinsson

    ·

    PIT 2·DET 1

  16. 3rd·14:09

    Ben Chiarot hit Rickard Rakell

    ·

    PIT 2·DET 1

  17. 3rd·13:52

    Giveaway by Ryan Shea

    PIT 2·DET 1

  18. 3rd·13:05

    Takeaway by Justin Brazeau

    PIT 2·DET 1

  19. 3rd·12:27

    Giveaway by Andrew Copp

    PIT 2·DET 1

  20. 3rd·12:10

    Takeaway by Tommy Novak

    PIT 2·DET 1

  21. 3rd·12:08

    Giveaway by Parker Wotherspoon

    PIT 2·DET 1

  22. 3rd·11:53

    Ben Chiarot hit Rutger McGroarty

    ·

    PIT 2·DET 1

  23. 3rd·11:45

    Andrew Copp faceoff won against Ben Kindel

    ·

    PIT 2·DET 1

  24. 3rd·11:45

    Icing

    PIT 2·DET 1

  25. 3rd·11:40

    Mason Appleton hit Kris Letang

    ·

    PIT 2·DET 1

  26. 3rd·11:39

    Ben Kindel hit J.T. Compher

    ·

    PIT 2·DET 1

  27. 3rd·11:33

    Takeaway by J.T. Compher

    PIT 2·DET 1

  28. 3rd·11:25

    Michael Rasmussen shot blocked by Kris Letang

    ·

    PIT 2·DET 1

  29. 3rd·11:22

    Mason Appleton hit Ben Kindel

    ·

    PIT 2·DET 1

  30. 3rd·11:03

    Takeaway by Kris Letang

    PIT 2·DET 1

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

DET

Home

31

Shots

12

0.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

4

26

Faceoffs W

22

13

Blocks

12

16

Giveaways

19

8

Takeaways

2

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +114/DET -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
    SHOT MPH94.799
  • Erik KarlssonPIT · D
    SKATE MPH22.897
  • Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
    DIST MI252.196
  • Emmitt FinnieDET · C
    BURSTS19394

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR