
PIT
19-12-9

DET
24-15-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
ittsburgh Penguins went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 4–1.
PIT +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PIT · top performer

Sidney Crosby
C · #87
0
G
2
A
—
SOG
DET · top performer

Alex DeBrincat
RW · #93
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
NHL · Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


PIT
19-12-9
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
DET
24-15-4
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
4
PIM
4
Season series
PIT leads series 2-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 9 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
PIT beat DET 4-1.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| DET | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Period scoring
PIT won 2 · DET won 1
1
2
3
Play-by-play · 282 plays
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
PIT 4·DET 1
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PIT 4·DET 1
- 3rd·19:28
Ben Kindel faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
PIT 4·DET 1
- 3rd·19:28
Connor Dewar Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (5), Kris Letang (18)
· ·
PIT 4·DET 1
- 3rd·19:00
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Blake Lizotte
·
PIT 3·DET 1
- 3rd·19:00
Rickard Rakell Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (22), Brett Kulak (4)
· ·
PIT 3·DET 1
- 3rd·18:19
Connor Dewar shot blocked by Moritz Seider
·
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·17:46
Giveaway by Parker Wotherspoon
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·16:31
Kris Letang hit Mason Appleton
·
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·16:21
Kris Letang hit J.T. Compher
·
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·16:12
Kris Letang shot blocked by Jacob Bernard-Docker
·
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·15:58
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·15:58
Icing
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·14:58
Yegor Chinakhov Snap Shot saved by John Gibson
·
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·14:49
Yegor Chinakhov shot blocked by Simon Edvinsson
·
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·14:09
Ben Chiarot hit Rickard Rakell
·
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·13:52
Giveaway by Ryan Shea
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·13:05
Takeaway by Justin Brazeau
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·12:27
Giveaway by Andrew Copp
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·12:10
Takeaway by Tommy Novak
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·12:08
Giveaway by Parker Wotherspoon
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·11:53
Ben Chiarot hit Rutger McGroarty
·
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·11:45
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·11:45
Icing
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·11:40
Mason Appleton hit Kris Letang
·
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·11:39
Ben Kindel hit J.T. Compher
·
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·11:33
Takeaway by J.T. Compher
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·11:25
Michael Rasmussen shot blocked by Kris Letang
·
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·11:22
Mason Appleton hit Ben Kindel
·
PIT 2·DET 1
- 3rd·11:03
Takeaway by Kris Letang
PIT 2·DET 1
Team stats
PIT
Away
Stat
DET
Home
31
Shots
12
0.0
PCT
0.0
4
PIM
4
26
Faceoffs W
22
13
Blocks
12
16
Giveaways
19
8
Takeaways
2
Betting line
DET -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +114/DET -135
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
Moritz SeiderDET · DDIST MI299.899
Egor ChinakhovPIT · RWSHOT MPH94.799
Erik KarlssonPIT · DSKATE MPH22.897
Alex DeBrincatDET · RWDIST MI252.196
Emmitt FinnieDET · CBURSTS19394
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-135
Close price
-135
Open no-vig
55.1%
Close no-vig
55.1%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss