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FINAL+1DET
TOR

TOR

17-15-6

23
DET

DET

23-14-3

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLSun, Dec 28FinalSeriesDET leads series 3-0VegasDET -142

Recap · NHL

etroit Red Wings held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 3–2 in overtime.

TOR +1.5 cashed (DET won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
John Tavares

John Tavares

C · #91

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

DET · top performer

DET
Mason Appleton

Mason Appleton

C · #22

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
2
3
TOR17-15-6DET23-14-3
TOR

TOR

17-15-6

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DET

DET

23-14-3

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

6

Season series

DET leads series 3-0

Oct 11TORTOR3@DETDET6
Oct 13DETDET3@TORTOR2
Dec 29TORTOR2@DETDET3today
Jan 22DETDET2@TORTOR1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR+12045%
DETDET-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat TOR 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
TOR01102
DET01113

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · DET won 1

0
0

1

1
1

2

1
1

3

0
1

OT

TOR
DET

Play-by-play · 322 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·1:46

    Game End

    TOR 2·DET 3

  2. OT·1:46

    End of OT

    TOR 2·DET 3

  3. OT·1:46

    Simon Edvinsson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: none

    TOR 2·DET 3

  4. OT·1:37

    Patrick Kane Wrist Shot saved by Dennis Hildeby

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  5. OT·1:27

    Auston Matthews Snap Shot Hit Left Post

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  6. OT·1:02

    Auston Matthews faceoff won against Dylan Larkin

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  7. OT·1:02

    Goalie Stopped

    TOR 2·DET 2

  8. OT·0:59

    Matthew Knies Snap Shot saved by Cam Talbot

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  9. OT·0:37

    Moritz Seider Wrist Shot saved by Dennis Hildeby

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  10. OT·0:00

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Auston Matthews

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  11. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    TOR 2·DET 2

  12. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    TOR 2·DET 2

  13. 3rd·18:46

    Dylan Larkin Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  14. 3rd·18:40

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Scott Laughton

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  15. 3rd·18:40

    Icing

    TOR 2·DET 2

  16. 3rd·18:32

    Alex DeBrincat Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  17. 3rd·18:31

    Andrew Copp Wrist Shot Hit Right Post

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  18. 3rd·18:30

    Andrew Copp Wrist Shot saved by Dennis Hildeby

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  19. 3rd·18:12

    Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Alex DeBrincat

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  20. 3rd·17:27

    Dakota Joshua hit Moritz Seider

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  21. 3rd·17:05

    Philippe Myers Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  22. 3rd·16:48

    Mason Appleton shot blocked by Chris Tanev

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  23. 3rd·16:25

    Giveaway by Lucas Raymond

    TOR 2·DET 2

  24. 3rd·16:06

    Giveaway by Andrew Copp

    TOR 2·DET 2

  25. 3rd·15:55

    Giveaway by Andrew Copp

    TOR 2·DET 2

  26. 3rd·14:50

    Nate Danielson shot blocked by Chris Tanev

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  27. 3rd·14:43

    Marco Kasper faceoff won against Nicolas Roy

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  28. 3rd·14:43

    Goalie Stopped

    TOR 2·DET 2

  29. 3rd·14:41

    Dylan Larkin Wrist Shot saved by Dennis Hildeby

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  30. 3rd·13:21

    Scott Laughton faceoff won against Andrew Copp

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

DET

Home

27

Shots

36

50.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

6

28

Faceoffs W

32

11

Blocks

14

11

Giveaways

15

5

Takeaways

4

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +120/DET -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 24 skaters with EDGE
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
    DIST MI252.196
  • Philippe MyersTOR · D
    SHOT MPH99.395
  • Emmitt FinnieDET · C
    BURSTS19394
  • Jake McCabeTOR · D
    DIST MI253.292

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR