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FINAL+2BUF
BUF

BUF

27-17-5

53
NSH

NSH

23-22-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Jan 20FinalSeriesBUF leads series 1-0VegasNSH -135

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into Nashville Predators and beat them, 5–3.

BUF +1.5 cashed (NSH lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Konsta Helenius

Konsta Helenius

C · #94

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

NSH
Filip Forsberg

Filip Forsberg

LW · #9

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Nashville Predators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
3
BUF27-17-5NSH23-22-4
BUF

BUF

27-17-5

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NSH

NSH

23-22-4

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

4

Season series

BUF leads series 1-0

Jan 21BUFBUF5@NSHNSH3today
Mar 7NSHNSH2@BUFBUF3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF+11447%
NSHNSH-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat NSH 5-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BUF3115
NSH0213

Period scoring

BUF won 1 · NSH won 1

3
0

1

1
2

2

1
1

3

BUF
NSH

Play-by-play · 328 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BUF 5·NSH 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 5·NSH 3

  3. 3rd·20:00

    Ryan O'Reilly High-sticking against Mattias Samuelsson

    ·

    BUF 5·NSH 3

  4. 3rd·20:00

    Mattias Samuelsson Roughing against Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    BUF 5·NSH 3

  5. 3rd·19:57

    Ryan O'Reilly Backhand saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    BUF 5·NSH 3

  6. 3rd·19:56

    Luke Evangelista Wrist Shot Short

    ·

    BUF 5·NSH 3

  7. 3rd·19:55

    Luke Evangelista Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    BUF 5·NSH 3

  8. 3rd·19:55

    Ryan O'Reilly Tip-In Hit Right Post

    ·

    BUF 5·NSH 3

  9. 3rd·19:46

    Roman Josi Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 5·NSH 3

  10. 3rd·19:36

    Roman Josi Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 5·NSH 3

  11. 3rd·19:02

    Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Alex Tuch

    ·

    BUF 5·NSH 3

  12. 3rd·19:02

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 5·NSH 3

  13. 3rd·19:00

    Filip Forsberg Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    BUF 5·NSH 3

  14. 3rd·18:54

    Brady Skjei Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 5·NSH 3

  15. 3rd·18:53

    Filip Forsberg Slap Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    BUF 5·NSH 3

  16. 3rd·18:14

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    BUF 5·NSH 3

  17. 3rd·18:14

    Peyton Krebs Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (17)

    ·

    BUF 5·NSH 3

  18. 3rd·17:43

    Alex Tuch Wrist Shot Hit Left Post

    ·

    BUF 4·NSH 3

  19. 3rd·17:36

    Jonathan Marchessault hit Owen Power

    ·

    BUF 4·NSH 3

  20. 3rd·17:10

    Noah Ostlund shot blocked by Matthew Wood

    ·

    BUF 4·NSH 3

  21. 3rd·16:36

    Giveaway by Brady Skjei

    BUF 4·NSH 3

  22. 3rd·16:28

    Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    BUF 4·NSH 3

  23. 3rd·16:28

    Puck in Crowd

    BUF 4·NSH 3

  24. 3rd·16:20

    Roman Josi Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    BUF 4·NSH 3

  25. 3rd·16:18

    Nicolas Hague shot blocked by Beck Malenstyn

    ·

    BUF 4·NSH 3

  26. 3rd·16:04

    Filip Forsberg hit Peyton Krebs

    ·

    BUF 4·NSH 3

  27. 3rd·15:57

    Filip Forsberg Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 4·NSH 3

  28. 3rd·15:41

    Jason Zucker hit Nick Blankenburg

    ·

    BUF 4·NSH 3

  29. 3rd·15:23

    Rasmus Dahlin hit Luke Evangelista

    ·

    BUF 4·NSH 3

  30. 3rd·15:23

    Filip Forsberg shot blocked by Owen Power

    ·

    BUF 4·NSH 3

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

33

Shots

34

0.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

4

27

Faceoffs W

33

19

Blocks

8

15

Giveaways

10

4

Takeaways

6

Betting line

NSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF +114/NSH -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
    DIST MI265.898
  • Brady SkjeiNSH · D
    SKATE MPH23.497
  • Filip ForsbergNSH · LW
    DIST MI246.195
  • Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
    DIST MI46.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR