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FINAL+1MTL
MTL

MTL

27-15-7

65
OTT

OTT

22-19-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 17FinalSeriesMTL leads series 2-1VegasOTT -120

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Ottawa Senators and beat them, 6–5 in overtime.

MTL +1.5 cashed (OTT lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

MTL
Cole Caufield

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

OTT
Tim Stutzle

Tim Stutzle

C · #18

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
6
5
MTL27-15-7OTT22-19-6
MTL

MTL

27-15-7

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
OTT

OTT

22-19-6

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

12

Season series

MTL leads series 2-1

Nov 1OTTOTT3@MTLMTL4
Dec 3OTTOTT5@MTLMTL2
Jan 18MTLMTL6@OTTOTT5today
Mar 11MTLMTL3@OTTOTT2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTLMTL+10050%
OTTOTT-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat OTT 6-5.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
MTL21216
OTT04105

Period scoring

MTL won 3 · OTT won 1

2
0

1

1
4

2

2
1

3

1
0

OT

MTL
OTT

Play-by-play · 337 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·0:33

    Game End

    MTL 6·OTT 5

  2. OT·0:33

    End of OT

    MTL 6·OTT 5

  3. OT·0:33

    Cole Caufield Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (42)

    ·

    MTL 6·OTT 5

  4. OT·0:23

    Tim Stützle Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 5·OTT 5

  5. OT·0:07

    Lane Hutson Wrist Shot saved by Leevi Meriläinen

    ·

    MTL 5·OTT 5

  6. OT·0:06

    Lane Hutson Wrist Shot saved by Leevi Meriläinen

    ·

    MTL 5·OTT 5

  7. OT·0:00

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Claude Giroux

    ·

    MTL 5·OTT 5

  8. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    MTL 5·OTT 5

  9. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    MTL 5·OTT 5

  10. 3rd·19:54

    Nick Suzuki Wrist Shot saved by Leevi Meriläinen

    ·

    MTL 5·OTT 5

  11. 3rd·19:52

    Mike Matheson shot blocked by Thomas Chabot

    ·

    MTL 5·OTT 5

  12. 3rd·19:36

    Jake Evans faceoff won against Tim Stützle

    ·

    MTL 5·OTT 5

  13. 3rd·19:36

    Off-side

    MTL 5·OTT 5

  14. 3rd·18:23

    Giveaway by Tim Stützle

    MTL 5·OTT 5

  15. 3rd·18:21

    Tim Stützle Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault

    ·

    MTL 5·OTT 5

  16. 3rd·18:19

    Takeaway by Drake Batherson

    MTL 5·OTT 5

  17. 3rd·17:05

    Giveaway by David Perron

    MTL 5·OTT 5

  18. 3rd·16:51

    Giveaway by Jake Evans

    MTL 5·OTT 5

  19. 3rd·16:41

    Lars Eller faceoff won against Jake Evans

    ·

    MTL 5·OTT 5

  20. 3rd·16:41

    Timeout - Home

    MTL 5·OTT 5

  21. 3rd·16:41

    Alexandre Carrier Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (30), Josh Anderson (5)

    · ·

    MTL 5·OTT 5

  22. 3rd·16:28

    Giveaway by Nick Jensen

    MTL 4·OTT 5

  23. 3rd·16:27

    Giveaway by Lane Hutson

    MTL 4·OTT 5

  24. 3rd·15:36

    Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Shane Pinto

    ·

    MTL 4·OTT 5

  25. 3rd·15:36

    Juraj Slafkovský Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Lane Hutson (41), Phillip Danault (10)

    · ·

    MTL 4·OTT 5

  26. 3rd·15:32

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Claude Giroux

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 5

  27. 3rd·15:32

    Goalie Stopped

    MTL 3·OTT 5

  28. 3rd·15:31

    Nick Suzuki Snap Shot saved by Leevi Meriläinen

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 5

  29. 3rd·15:24

    Ridly Greig faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 5

  30. 3rd·15:24

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    MTL 3·OTT 5

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

19

Shots

34

40.0

PCT

66.7

8

PIM

12

32

Faceoffs W

28

24

Blocks

15

14

Giveaways

17

5

Takeaways

5

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL +100/OTT -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7699+
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    DIST MI62.999
  • Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
    DIST MI56.699
  • Arber XhekajMTL · D
    SHOT MPH98.598

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · OTT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR